IndicineFBO Update: Jolly LLB 2, Badrinath Ki Dulhania, Rangoon

The year did not begin very well for ‘IndicineFBO’ with 2017’s first release ‘Ok Jaanu’ falling well short of our prediction. But with ‘Raees’ and ‘Kaabil’ we were on target, accurately predicting both the opening day collections of the two films and also the winner of the clash.

We now have a stellar record when it comes to predicting clashes – Rustom vs Mohenjo Daro, Ae Dil Hai Mushkil vs Shivaay and Raees vs Kaabil – were all accurately predicted.

Moving on, we have quite a few big films that are scheduled to release in the first quarter of 2017.

The biggest of them all is ‘Jolly LLB 2’ which is carrying fantastic pre-release buzz. It’s probably the most anticipated Akshay Kumar film in a very long time. The trailers have worked and the song promos are universally appealing. A certain section of the trade though is having very high expectations from the film as far as the opening is concerned. We think it’s better to have realistic expectations, and it’s always good when a film over-delivers. A 15 crore plus opening is on the cards. A 13 crore opening would be good too, while anything above 17 would be extraordinary.

Vishal Bhardwaj’s Rangoon though could prove to be a non-starter at the box office, if the makers do not put out some good promos. A dark love story doesn’t have an audience, unfortunately. We did a survey at two theatres last weekend, the results of which were dismal for Rangoon. 74% of the audience who came to watch Raees and Kaabil weren’t interested in watching Rangoon – even if the reviews are favourable. Given the costs, the film should ideally open in the 8-10 crore range and then grow from there. However, that sort of a opening looks difficult from here and anything less than 6 crore would seal its fate on the first day itself.

Commando 2 had potential, but the trailer hasn’t received a good response. The first film, which released with ‘Nautanki Saala’ in 2013, collected Rs 3.5 crore on Day 1. This one should perform a little better with the opening falling in the range of 4.5 -5 crore.

And then we have Dharma Productions’ Badrinath Ki Dulhania. Varun Dhawan’s career graph has always moved in the right direction so far. Even his last film ‘Dishoom’ opened above expectations, even though its trailer received a mixed response. In complete contrast, the trailer of the second ‘Dulhania’ film has received a fabulous response, both from the trade as well as the audience (10 million plus views in 24 hours). Unlike most Dharma films in recent times, ‘Badri..’ is massier and promises to entertain every section of the audience. Music isn’t helping urban films anymore, but could help a film like ‘Badri..’ open very well if one or two songs go on to be chartbusters.

The presence of Alia Bhatt, who is on a career-high after a terrific 2016, will obviously help in increasing footfalls in theatres. The last film ‘Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania’ opened at Rs 9.08 crore during the Ramzan period, this one should be bigger. We are starting ‘IndicineLBO’ with 10.65 crore for ‘Badri..’, which could stretch to 12 crore or more depending on the response to the music. The exam period will have an impact on business, but otherwise the film will have the extended weekend for Holi to take advantage of.

There are a few other films like ‘The Ghazi Attack’ and ‘Runningshaadi.com’, but all these films will be word-of-mouth dependent. The opening will be well under the 2 crore mark.