Housefull 3 Box Office Prediction

Housefull 3 is the biggest ‘universally appealing’ Hindi film release of the year so far. It has almost every factor in its favour, with ‘content’ being the only factor that needs to fall in place for the film to do well at the box office.

Factors in favour of the film:

• Franchise: Sequels to popular franchise films – especially those that do well on television – have always opened well at the box office. The opening of Singham Returns, Dhoom 3, Krrish 3, Dabangg 2, Welcome Back and Housefull 2 all ranged from good to earth-shattering. A good opening is the least that’s expected out of such films, with other factors like popularity of the franchise, director helming the sequel and presence of major superstars  - all contributing in raking in bigger numbers on Day 1.
• Akshay Kumar: Not too long ago, Akshay films weren’t working at multiplexes – but the success of Airlift has turned things around for the superstar. Housefull 3 is expected to open well both at multiplexes and single-screens.
• Strong supporting cast: Apart from Akshay, the film also has Riteish Deshmukh (loved in comedy films) and Abhishek Bachchan (a good actor who does add value to multi-starrer films). Housefull 3 also has Jacqueline, Nargis, Lisa, Boman, Johnny Lever and Chunkey Pandey – some of these actors were loved in the previous Housefull films.
• Post IPL period: In an article published earlier today (read), we had highlighted that the period that falls just after the conclusion of IPL is probably the 4th most lucrative period to release films after Christmas, Eid and Diwali.

Factors against Housefull 3:

• Response to Trailer, music album, dialogue promos has been mixed. The last film in the franchise ‘Housefull 2’ had quite a few popular songs like Papa Toh Band Bajaye, Anarkali Disco Chali and a few others. Here we have ‘Pyar Ki’ which has done fairly well, but that’s about it as far as the music is concerned.
• Director: Sajid Khan, who directed Housefull 1 and 2, is out. The ‘Entertainment’ director-duo of Sajid-Farhad helm the third film in the franchise. The audience will be aware of this, but it could well work in favour of the film because Sajid Khan’s last two films faced complete rejection.
• Content: Not for nothing do they call content the king. Even biggies like ‘FAN’ have been rejected this year and all films that have performed well at multiplexes – have had good word-of-mouth. It’s going to be the most important factor even on Day 1 as multiplexes business tend to show upward trend as early as afternoon shows on Friday.

2016 records that Housefull 3 will be targeting (Hindi films only):

• First Day: FAN (19.2 crore)
• Highest Single Day: FAN (1st Day, Friday, 19.2 crore)
• Highest Non-Holiday Single Day: FAN (2nd Day, Saturday, 15.4 crore)
• Highest First Weekend: FAN (52.35 crore)
• Highest First Week: Airlift (83.5 crore)
• Highest Second Weekend: Airlift (19.26 crore)
• Highest Second Week: Airlift (28.79 crore)
• Highest Lifetime: Airlift (128 crore)

IndicineFBO: We expect ‘Housefull 3’ to collect Rs 17.4 crore on Day 1 at the box office.

Movie	Prediction	Official
Wazir	4.4	5.61	+ 27%, In accurate
Airlift	10.9	12.35	+ 13%, Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3	9.3	8.15	- 12%, Accurate
Mastizaade	6.1	5.59	- 8%, Accurate
Saala Khadoos	2.2	2.19	0%, Accurate
Ghayal Once Again	6.4	7.2	+ 12%, Accurate
Sanam Re	5.5	5.04	- 8%, Accurate
Fitoor	5.2	3.61	- 30%, Inaccurate
Neerja	4.3	4.7	+ 8%, Accurate
Jai Gangajaal	5.2	5.5	+ 6%, Accurate
Kapoor & Sons	5.8	6.85	+ 18%, Inaccurate
Rocky Handsome	6.3	5.39	- 14%, Accurate
Ki and Ka	6.3	7.27	+ 16%, Inaccurate
Fan	21.9	19.2	- 12%, Accurate
Baaghi	9.4	11.94	+ 27%, Inaccurate
Azhar	7.5	6.3	- 16%, Inaccurate
Sarbjit	4.2	3.69	- 12%, Accurate
Housefull 3	17.4	15.21	- 12%, Accurate
Udta Punjab	8.9	10.05	- 13%, Accurate
Sultan	38.5	36.54	- 5%, Accurate
Great Grand Masti	5.8	2.5	- 56%, Inaccurate
Dishoom	9.8	11.02	+12%, Accurate
Mohenjo Daro	10.7	8.87	- 17%, Inaccurate
Rustom	12.6	14.11	+12%, Accurate
Happy Bhaag Jayegi	2.1	2.32	+10%, Accurate
A Flying Jatt	8.5	7.11	- 16%, Inaccurate
Baar Baar Dekho	9.1	6.81	- 25%, Inaccurate
Freaky Ali	2.4	2.5	+4%, Accurate
Pink	4.5	4.32	-4%, Accurate
Raaz Reboot	5.2	6.31	+ 21%, Inaccurate
MS Dhoni	20.1	21.6	+7%, Accurate
Mirzya	4.0	2.2	- 45%, Inaccurate
Shivaay	10.7	10.24	-4%, Accurate
ADHM	12.4	13.3	+7%, Accurate
Force 2	5.8	6.05	+4%, Accurate
Dear Zindagi	9.7	8.75	-10%, Accurate
Kahaani 2	4.5	4.25	-5%, Accurate
Befikre	10.5	10.36	-1%, Accurate
Dangal	28.6	29.78	+4%, Accurate

Detailed Box Office Prediction Housefull 3

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 – 19 cr
• Day 2 – 21 cr
• Day 3 – 25 cr
• Weekend – 65 cr
• First Week – 105 cr
• Final – 175 cr+ (Super Hit / Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 18 cr
• Day 2 – 19 cr
• Day 3 – 21 cr
• Weekend - 58 cr
• First Week – 85 cr
• Final – 120 cr (Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 17 cr
• Day 2 – 15 cr
• Day 3 – 16 cr
• Weekend – 48 cr
• First Week – 65 cr
• Lifetime – 80 cr (Flop)

There was a time, not too long ago, when we avoided factoring in word-of-mouth on Day 1. But that’s no longer the case. The difference between good / mixed / negative word-of-mouth could well be 2-3 crore on Friday itself.

How much do *you* think Housefull 3 will collect on Friday? Vote!