Fan Indicine FBO and LBO Update

The response to the theatrical trailer and the ‘Jabra’ song from Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN has increased the excitement around the film, both in the trade and the audience.

We start FBO (First day box office) with Rs 20.5 crore, which would be a terrific start for a non-festive release. The makers have to now sustain the buzz leading upto the release of the film on April 15. Note: The final prediction will be made on April 14 (i.e one day before the release of the film)

Opening Day Factors in favour

• Shah Rukh Khan
• Well-appreciated trailer
• Jabra song in various languages has increased appeal and reach at smaller centres
• Surprise element of revenge in FAN has helped increase curiosity
• Comparisons with Darr and Baazigar has led to a feeling of nostalgia, the return of Shah Rukh of yore.

Opening Day Factors against FAN

• Inconsistency of director Maneesh Sharma; Band Baaja Baarat worked, rest were either flops or average grossers.
• Glorification of Shah Rukh Khan may not be liked by a section of the audience, after all not everyone is a FAN.
• Shah Rukh’s first non-festive release since My Name Is Khan. Exhibitors / YRF unlikely to price tickets at holiday rates (confirmation soon).
• Lack of universal appeal; doesn’t have those typical filmy ingredients which could both work in favour or against the film. But it’s certain to restrict business at smaller centres.

Movie	Prediction	Official
Wazir	4.4	5.61	+ 27%, In accurate
Airlift	10.9	12.35	+ 13%, Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3	9.3	8.15	- 12%, Accurate
Mastizaade	6.1	5.59	- 8%, Accurate
Saala Khadoos	2.2	2.19	0%, Accurate
Ghayal Once Again	6.4	7.2	+ 12%, Accurate
Sanam Re	5.5	5.04	- 8%, Accurate
Fitoor	5.2	3.61	- 30%, Inaccurate
Neerja	4.3	4.7	+ 8%, Accurate
Jai Gangajaal	5.2	5.5	+ 6%, Accurate
Kapoor & Sons	5.8	6.85	+ 18%, Inaccurate
Rocky Handsome	6.3	5.39	- 14%, Accurate
Ki and Ka	6.3	7.27	+ 16%, Inaccurate
Fan	21.9	19.2	- 12%, Accurate
Baaghi	9.4	11.94	+ 27%, Inaccurate
Azhar	7.5	6.3	- 16%, Inaccurate
Sarbjit	4.2	3.69	- 12%, Accurate
Housefull 3	17.4	15.21	- 12%, Accurate
Udta Punjab	8.9	10.05	- 13%, Accurate
Sultan	38.5	36.54	- 5%, Accurate
Great Grand Masti	5.8	2.5	- 56%, Inaccurate
Dishoom	9.8	11.02	+12%, Accurate
Mohenjo Daro	10.7	8.87	- 17%, Inaccurate
Rustom	12.6	14.11	+12%, Accurate
Happy Bhaag Jayegi	2.1	2.32	+10%, Accurate
A Flying Jatt	8.5	7.11	- 16%, Inaccurate
Baar Baar Dekho	9.1	6.81	- 25%, Inaccurate
Freaky Ali	2.4	2.5	+4%, Accurate
Pink	4.5	4.32	-4%, Accurate
Raaz Reboot	5.2	6.31	+ 21%, Inaccurate
MS Dhoni	20.1	21.6	+7%, Accurate
Mirzya	4.0	2.2	- 45%, Inaccurate
Shivaay	10.7	10.24	-4%, Accurate
ADHM	12.4	13.3	+7%, Accurate
Force 2	5.8	6.05	+4%, Accurate
Dear Zindagi	9.7	8.75	-10%, Accurate
Kahaani 2	4.5	4.25	-5%, Accurate
Befikre	10.5	10.36	-1%, Accurate
Dangal	28.6	29.78	+4%, Accurate

Lifetime business

• After Happy New Year and Dilwale, success of FAN will be important for Shah Rukh Khan. He needs a film that’s well liked by the audience.
• If FAN does well, it could be a battle of equals when Raees and Sultan clash. If it doesn’t, Salman will have a serious advantage, atleast as far as the opening is concerned.
• FAN releases during the beginning of the IPL season and during a time when temperatures peak in most parts of the country.
• Quite a few holidays / restricted holidays – Ram Navami (Friday, 15th April), Mahaveer Jayanti (20th April), holiday in UP on 21st April.
• 2 open weeks before the release of Tiger Shroff and Shraddha Kapoor’s Baaghi on April 29.

Movie	Word of Mouth		Prediction	Actual Collection	Difference	Result
Dilwale	Mixed		145 cr	148 cr	2%	Accurate
Bajirao Mastani	Extremely Positive		168 cr	187 cr	12%	Accurate
Wazir	Mixed		35 cr	40 cr	14%	Accurate
Airlift	Positive		143 cr	127 cr	11%	Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3	Negative		34 cr	31 cr	8%	Accurate
Mastizaade	Mixed		29 cr	32 cr	10%	Accurate
Saala Khadoos	Negative		16 cr	14 cr	12%	Accurate
Ghayal Once Again	Mixed		39 cr	36 cr*	8%	Accurate
Sanam Re	Mixed		28 cr	29 cr	3%	Accurate
Fitoor	Extremely Negative		23 cr	19 cr	17%	Inaccurate
Neerja	Positive		70 cr	74 cr	6%	Accurate
Teraa Surroor	Negative		12 cr	13 cr	8%	Accurate
Rocky Handsome	Negative		26 cr	25 cr	4%	Accurate
Jai Gangaajal	Negative		33 cr	32 cr	3%	Accurate
Kapoor & Sons	Positive		66 cr	72 cr	9%	Accurate
Ki And Ka	Positive		54 cr	53 cr	2%	Accurate
Fan	Negative		95 cr	84 cr	11%	Accurate
Baaghi	Positive		84 cr	75 cr	11%	Accurate
Azhar	Negative		35 cr	33 cr	5%	Accurate
Sarabjit	Mixed		26 cr	28 cr	7%	Accurate
Housefull 3	Mixed		105 cr	107 cr	2%	Accurate
Udta Punjab	Mixed		72 cr	59 cr	18%	Inaccurate
Sultan	Positive		305 cr	302 cr	1%	Accurate
Dishoom	Mixed		62 cr	69 cr	11%	Accurate
Mohenjo Daro	Negative		54 cr	59 cr	9%	Accurate
Rustom	Positive		102 cr	126 cr	23%	Inaccurate
Happy Bhag Jayegi	Mixed		21 cr	26 cr	24%	Inaccurate
A Flying Jatt	Negative		33 cr	37 cr	12%	Accurate
Akira	Mixed		27 cr	28 cr	3%	Accurate
Baar Baar Dekho	Negative		38 cr	31 cr	18%	Inaccurate
Raaz Reboot	Negative		28 cr	27 cr	3%	Accurate
Pink	Positive		54 cr	65 cr	20%	Inaccurate
M S Dhoni biopic	Mixed		138 cr	133 cr	4%	Accurate
Mirzya	Negative		9 cr	10 cr	11%	Accurate
Shivaay	Mixed		95 cr	96 cr	1%	Accurate
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil	Mixed		102 cr	111 cr	9%	Accurate
Rock On 2	Negative		13 cr	10 cr	23%	Inaccurate
Force 2	Mixed		35 cr	34 cr	3%	Accurate
Dear Zindagi	Positive		65 cr	66 cr	1%	Accurate
Befikre	Negative		58 cr	60 cr	3%	Accurate
Dangal	Pending		315 cr	-	-	-