The response to the theatrical trailer and the ‘Jabra’ song from Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN has increased the excitement around the film, both in the trade and the audience.
We start FBO (First day box office) with Rs 20.5 crore, which would be a terrific start for a non-festive release. The makers have to now sustain the buzz leading upto the release of the film on April 15. Note: The final prediction will be made on April 14 (i.e one day before the release of the film)
Opening Day Factors in favour
- Shah Rukh Khan
- Well-appreciated trailer
- Jabra song in various languages has increased appeal and reach at smaller centres
- Surprise element of revenge in FAN has helped increase curiosity
- Comparisons with Darr and Baazigar has led to a feeling of nostalgia, the return of Shah Rukh of yore.
Opening Day Factors against FAN
- Inconsistency of director Maneesh Sharma; Band Baaja Baarat worked, rest were either flops or average grossers.
- Glorification of Shah Rukh Khan may not be liked by a section of the audience, after all not everyone is a FAN.
- Shah Rukh’s first non-festive release since My Name Is Khan. Exhibitors / YRF unlikely to price tickets at holiday rates (confirmation soon).
- Lack of universal appeal; doesn’t have those typical filmy ingredients which could both work in favour or against the film. But it’s certain to restrict business at smaller centres.
Movie | Prediction | Official | |
Wazir | 4.4 | 5.61 | + 27%, In accurate |
Airlift | 10.9 | 12.35 | + 13%, Accurate |
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | 9.3 | 8.15 | - 12%, Accurate |
Mastizaade | 6.1 | 5.59 | - 8%, Accurate |
Saala Khadoos | 2.2 | 2.19 | 0%, Accurate |
Ghayal Once Again | 6.4 | 7.2 | + 12%, Accurate |
Sanam Re | 5.5 | 5.04 | - 8%, Accurate |
Fitoor | 5.2 | 3.61 | - 30%, Inaccurate |
Neerja | 4.3 | 4.7 | + 8%, Accurate |
Jai Gangajaal | 5.2 | 5.5 | + 6%, Accurate |
Kapoor & Sons | 5.8 | 6.85 | + 18%, Inaccurate |
Rocky Handsome | 6.3 | 5.39 | - 14%, Accurate |
Ki and Ka | 6.3 | 7.27 | + 16%, Inaccurate |
Fan | 21.9 | 19.2 | - 12%, Accurate |
Baaghi | 9.4 | 11.94 | + 27%, Inaccurate |
Azhar | 7.5 | 6.3 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
Sarbjit | 4.2 | 3.69 | - 12%, Accurate |
Housefull 3 | 17.4 | 15.21 | - 12%, Accurate |
Udta Punjab | 8.9 | 10.05 | - 13%, Accurate |
Sultan | 38.5 | 36.54 | - 5%, Accurate |
Great Grand Masti | 5.8 | 2.5 | - 56%, Inaccurate |
Dishoom | 9.8 | 11.02 | +12%, Accurate |
Mohenjo Daro | 10.7 | 8.87 | - 17%, Inaccurate |
Rustom | 12.6 | 14.11 | +12%, Accurate |
Happy Bhaag Jayegi | 2.1 | 2.32 | +10%, Accurate |
A Flying Jatt | 8.5 | 7.11 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
Baar Baar Dekho | 9.1 | 6.81 | - 25%, Inaccurate |
Freaky Ali | 2.4 | 2.5 | +4%, Accurate |
Pink | 4.5 | 4.32 | -4%, Accurate |
Raaz Reboot | 5.2 | 6.31 | + 21%, Inaccurate |
MS Dhoni | 20.1 | 21.6 | +7%, Accurate |
Mirzya | 4.0 | 2.2 | - 45%, Inaccurate |
Shivaay | 10.7 | 10.24 | -4%, Accurate |
ADHM | 12.4 | 13.3 | +7%, Accurate |
Force 2 | 5.8 | 6.05 | +4%, Accurate |
Dear Zindagi | 9.7 | 8.75 | -10%, Accurate |
Kahaani 2 | 4.5 | 4.25 | -5%, Accurate |
Befikre | 10.5 | 10.36 | -1%, Accurate |
Dangal | 28.6 | 29.78 | +4%, Accurate |
Lifetime business
- After Happy New Year and Dilwale, success of FAN will be important for Shah Rukh Khan. He needs a film that’s well liked by the audience.
- If FAN does well, it could be a battle of equals when Raees and Sultan clash. If it doesn’t, Salman will have a serious advantage, atleast as far as the opening is concerned.
- FAN releases during the beginning of the IPL season and during a time when temperatures peak in most parts of the country.
- Quite a few holidays / restricted holidays – Ram Navami (Friday, 15th April), Mahaveer Jayanti (20th April), holiday in UP on 21st April.
- 2 open weeks before the release of Tiger Shroff and Shraddha Kapoor’s Baaghi on April 29.
Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
Dilwale | Mixed | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
Bajirao Mastani | Extremely Positive | 168 cr | 187 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
Wazir | Mixed | 35 cr | 40 cr | 14% | Accurate | |
Airlift | Positive | 143 cr | 127 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | Negative | 34 cr | 31 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
Mastizaade | Mixed | 29 cr | 32 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
Saala Khadoos | Negative | 16 cr | 14 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
Ghayal Once Again | Mixed | 39 cr | 36 cr* | 8% | Accurate | |
Sanam Re | Mixed | 28 cr | 29 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
Fitoor | Extremely Negative | 23 cr | 19 cr | 17% | Inaccurate | |
Neerja | Positive | 70 cr | 74 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
Teraa Surroor | Negative | 12 cr | 13 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
Rocky Handsome | Negative | 26 cr | 25 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
Jai Gangaajal | Negative | 33 cr | 32 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
Kapoor & Sons | Positive | 66 cr | 72 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
Ki And Ka | Positive | 54 cr | 53 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
Fan | Negative | 95 cr | 84 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
Baaghi | Positive | 84 cr | 75 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
Azhar | Negative | 35 cr | 33 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
Sarabjit | Mixed | 26 cr | 28 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
Housefull 3 | Mixed | 105 cr | 107 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
Udta Punjab | Mixed | 72 cr | 59 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
Sultan | Positive | 305 cr | 302 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
Dishoom | Mixed | 62 cr | 69 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
Mohenjo Daro | Negative | 54 cr | 59 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
Rustom | Positive | 102 cr | 126 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
Happy Bhag Jayegi | Mixed | 21 cr | 26 cr | 24% | Inaccurate | |
A Flying Jatt | Negative | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
Akira | Mixed | 27 cr | 28 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
Baar Baar Dekho | Negative | 38 cr | 31 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
Raaz Reboot | Negative | 28 cr | 27 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
Pink | Positive | 54 cr | 65 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
M S Dhoni biopic | Mixed | 138 cr | 133 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
Mirzya | Negative | 9 cr | 10 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
Shivaay | Mixed | 95 cr | 96 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil | Mixed | 102 cr | 111 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
Rock On 2 | Negative | 13 cr | 10 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
Force 2 | Mixed | 35 cr | 34 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
Dear Zindagi | Positive | 65 cr | 66 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
Befikre | Negative | 58 cr | 60 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
Dangal | Pending | 315 cr | - | - | - |
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Congrats Srk fans :p
Hope and wish SRK shines back at box office!!!! ;)
1st day will be 18-20 cr
Lifetime – 111 cr…
Heading towards end of phenomenon of SRK…
In fan Our so called king is coping Kangana’s character Kusum frm Tanu weds manu returns ! Hairstyle , haryanvi boli :3 ! infact its also a copy of Robert de niro The Fan(1996)
It will be crap…How a fan can even reach to his star when there is lot of security but here there are showing the fan is troubling the star again and again and the star is chasing him…In which world this nonsense happens…complete illogical
THANKS INDICINE
@indicine Shudh desi romance was a clean hit not average…..with first day 8 cr….
100% inaccurate because for Fan sky is the limit.. I bet u indicine… ab 20 se increase mat karna fbo.. wait for 15 april…
@Indicine
Which is the most liked and viewed bollywood trailer on You tube????
Houseful3 is going to do 168cr….
Thats very correct prediction by @indicine… Hats off…!!…
But rustom is sureshot 100cr film…!…
Ki n ka opening 5cr… Lifetime 20cr….!…
Kapoor N sons 30cr lifetime…
Baar Baar dekho is accurate … Hats off @indicine again…!…
Adhm will not not cross 100cr…
Even 50cr will be an achivement…adhm will FLOP like Ki N ka,, kapur n sons ,, Half Gf n Baar bar dekho…!…
Shivaay will do 150cr… Fan 125cr…
indicine u are wrong fan’s first day will be 25 pluse ! inshaallah
If fan gets positive Wom than 200cr pakke hai ;)
Common indicine, FAN will surely cross 200crore… This time after the trailer is released, even the haters Will be flocking to theaters!!! This movie gonna be some special for every one..
#FAN will be a game changer for SRK.. MARK MY WORDS… IT HAS ALREADY TAKEN D WORLD BY STORM…
Hey guys New here…Bt knw u all guys..I m Srkian…Welcome me..
My prediction opening of 22cr and Lt 200-220cr with positive won.
no BLOCKBUSTER VERDICT before SULTAN named HURRICANE arrives.
@Indicine
One question which i am asking from last one month
Please reply me now
Why starcast of raess is 9/10 and why Sultan and dangal starcast is 10/10?????
@ indicine- everyone is a fan but everyone isn’t srk fan should be right.
Ny prediction
Fan – 111 cr
H 3 – 160 cr
Raaz 4 – 80 cr
Azhaar – 60 cr
Sultan – 250 cr
Raees – 140 cr
Mohanjodaro – 200 cr
Rustom – 75 cr
Shivaay – 200 cr
Adhm – 80 cr
Dangal – 300 cr
270cr for Dangal is a prediction made by Indicine.But I feel that it’s gonna be beyond that.A cult classic blockbuster on making.Since Indicine interacts with us and also gives us logical and sensible answers related to bollywood,so I trust them.Also wishing good luck to Srk for Fan.A well made film never dissapoints.
Hoping everyone likes the film like they liked the trailer.. Result will be awesome too on BO then.
Audience is craving 4 different films…#FAN will be loved…On d basis of WOM 4 #FAN sky is d limit..
My prediccion pening fun will 15 cr make my word for get 20 cr lifetime will 110 cr insha allah make my word
Azhar is looking quite promising..buzz is high. emraan hashmi rocks big time.
FAN GONNA CREATE HISTORY…MARK MY WORDS…
I think this will be the first non-festive release to collect 200 crore net in India.
Those chase scenes were so cool in #FANTrailer….HATERS juzz think how much hard work might hv been put as der r nt 2 ppl..ONLY SRK playing both roles…HAT’S OFF 2 HIM..!!!!
FAN will do 220-240 crores if WOM is excellent.mark my word……..It will game changer of SRK
I predict 21.5 crores..Bt SKY is d limit 4 FAN…