2016 has been a fairly good year for ‘IndicineFBO’. We have accurately predicted 14 out of 20 major film releases this year. The two highly inaccurate predictions were ‘Great Grand Masti’ – which was a very difficult film to predict because of piracy – and ‘Fitoor’ – which was a huge disaster at the box office inspite of Katrina Kaif’s presence.
We consider ‘Sultan’ to be our best prediction of 2016, because a film that looked certain to cross the 40 crore mark on its first day, fell about 10% short because the Eid holiday was postponed at the very last moment. The difference between our prediction and the actual collection was 5%.
The second half of the year will be much more interesting and challenging. Predicting the two major clashes (Rustom vs Mohenjo Daro and Shivaay vs Ae Dil Hai Mushkil) isn’t going to be easy.
Below, we have a quick FBO update on some of the upcoming releases. Please note, the final prediction will be made on Thursday (or the day before release).
Dishoom: The response to the trailer of Rohit Dhawan’s Dishoom was mixed and the marketing campaign hasn’t been stellar either. Varun has gone all out, like he’s done for almost all his films. There is more at stake for the Dhawans, as Dishoom is Varun’s brother Rohit’s second film as director. The USP of the film seems to be action, comedy and scenes involving John and Varun. The love angle hasn’t really been promoted. One song has worked (Sau Tarah Ke), the rest haven’t. The special song featuring Varun and Parineeti had a fantastic hook and teaser, but the full song promo proved to be a massive disappointment. The dialogue and action promos have generated a bit of excitement, but the film is now looking at a 9-10 crore opening on Day 1 and the rest will depend on content. The timing of release is good, as there hasn’t been a big film release after ‘Sultan’ for the Hindi audience and the youth might come out in big numbers.
Mohenjo Daro: Hrithik Roshan will return to the silver screen after 2 years with one of the riskiest films of 2016. The Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film is expected to get a wider release as compared to ‘Rustom’, but the big interest that we usually associate with Hrithik films is missing this time around. It’s difficult to pin-point the problem, but a excellent / bumper opening is certainly out of question at this point in time – unless the second trailer turns out to be mighty impressive. Mohenjo Daro should open somewhere in the 13-14 crore range. The success of the film will depend on word-of-mouth. The growth on Saturday – Sunday – Monday (holiday for Independence Day) will be crucial and decide the fate of the film.
Rustom: Before the trailers, the odds were heavily stacked in favour of Mohenjo Daro, but the makers of Rustom are yet to put a step wrong. Music was never going to be a important factor for Rustom, it was important to make an impact with the trailer and that’s what they did. The battle is going to be closer and it wouldn’t be surprising if Rustom matches up to Mohenjo Daro on Day 1. A 10 crore plus opening looks like a certainty for now.
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Happy Bhag Jayegi: The promo has been received fairly well. It has that ‘Tanu Weds Manu’ feel to it, which could help the film take a decent opening on Day 1. The opening should be well below a film like ‘Neerja’. We are currently looking at Day 1 of around 2 – 3 crore, but the promotional campaign has only just begun.
A Flying Jatt: Tiger Shroff has a growing fan-following at mass-centres, a section of the audience that very few young actors cater to. ‘A Flying Jatt’ has lower production standards as compared to a film like ‘Baaghi’, which will restrict its audience at multiplexes, but the film should open very well in the Hindi belt. A multiplex dominated circuit like East Punjab could drive the collections of the film and ensure a decent 8-9 crore opening. Anything more will be exceptional.
Akira: The trailer was Akira was released at the beginning of the month. Since then, we haven’t heard much about the film. Was the trailer released too early? Either way, it should take a decent 3-4 crore opening.
| Movie | Prediction | Official | |
| Wazir | 4.4 | 5.61 | + 27%, In accurate |
| Airlift | 10.9 | 12.35 | + 13%, Accurate |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | 9.3 | 8.15 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Mastizaade | 6.1 | 5.59 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Saala Khadoos | 2.2 | 2.19 | 0%, Accurate |
| Ghayal Once Again | 6.4 | 7.2 | + 12%, Accurate |
| Sanam Re | 5.5 | 5.04 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Fitoor | 5.2 | 3.61 | - 30%, Inaccurate |
| Neerja | 4.3 | 4.7 | + 8%, Accurate |
| Jai Gangajaal | 5.2 | 5.5 | + 6%, Accurate |
| Kapoor & Sons | 5.8 | 6.85 | + 18%, Inaccurate |
| Rocky Handsome | 6.3 | 5.39 | - 14%, Accurate |
| Ki and Ka | 6.3 | 7.27 | + 16%, Inaccurate |
| Fan | 21.9 | 19.2 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Baaghi | 9.4 | 11.94 | + 27%, Inaccurate |
| Azhar | 7.5 | 6.3 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Sarbjit | 4.2 | 3.69 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Housefull 3 | 17.4 | 15.21 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Udta Punjab | 8.9 | 10.05 | - 13%, Accurate |
| Sultan | 38.5 | 36.54 | - 5%, Accurate |
| Great Grand Masti | 5.8 | 2.5 | - 56%, Inaccurate |
| Dishoom | 9.8 | 11.02 | +12%, Accurate |
| Mohenjo Daro | 10.7 | 8.87 | - 17%, Inaccurate |
| Rustom | 12.6 | 14.11 | +12%, Accurate |
| Happy Bhaag Jayegi | 2.1 | 2.32 | +10%, Accurate |
| A Flying Jatt | 8.5 | 7.11 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Baar Baar Dekho | 9.1 | 6.81 | - 25%, Inaccurate |
| Freaky Ali | 2.4 | 2.5 | +4%, Accurate |
| Pink | 4.5 | 4.32 | -4%, Accurate |
| Raaz Reboot | 5.2 | 6.31 | + 21%, Inaccurate |
| MS Dhoni | 20.1 | 21.6 | +7%, Accurate |
| Mirzya | 4.0 | 2.2 | - 45%, Inaccurate |
| Shivaay | 10.7 | 10.24 | -4%, Accurate |
| ADHM | 12.4 | 13.3 | +7%, Accurate |
| Force 2 | 5.8 | 6.05 | +4%, Accurate |
| Dear Zindagi | 9.7 | 8.75 | -10%, Accurate |
| Kahaani 2 | 4.5 | 4.25 | -5%, Accurate |
| Befikre | 10.5 | 10.36 | -1%, Accurate |
| Dangal | 28.6 | 29.78 | +4%, Accurate |
Collection of MD and shivaay will put more shame on you. Thanks
@hrithikian from nepal, do you know that 3 idiots was released back in 2009. At that time the opening of 12 cr was the highest opening day record ever. And the opening was only due to the Megastardom of Aamir. Next time think before you blabber. Anyways I am looking forward to watch mohenjo daro because I personally liked the trailer.
Mark my word, mohenjo daro opening will be 18+ crore, the independence day has the capacity of 28 crore -30 crore to rake in, adding up the rustom collection around 10 crore. These periodical films are basicaly made for big screen, audience will love to watch it in cinemas. Neeraj pandey is a great director but his film genre cant bring audience to the cinemas the ashu hrithik rahman combo can bring. The tragic climax of MJ destrying the civilization , hrithik puja outstanding chemistry, less vfx more content, and finally rahman sir’s overwhelmingly incredible musical presentation which will get you inside that era are the USPs of MJ, and dont forget hrithik is coming back after 2 years. And tgis time finally hrithik will get to dannce in an Ashu movie . Fingers crossed
Housefull3 = 110cr.
No clash…
Mohenjo daro clash Rustom !
Rustom 120cr. 130cr.
how possible ?
Rustom lifetime=80cr. 90cr…..1st day…10cr.
Mohenjodaro=170cr….185cr…1st days..17cr…19cr.
INDIA IS still not prepared to deal with two and three top class films opening on the same week-end or worse yet opening on for the same Public holiday. The producers cannot handle their films not making it at the box-office, and therefore have behind doors discussions as to how the maximum returns could be had, using accommodating opening week-ends for top class and a fictitious following of high profile of Bollywood top stars. Sadly, this will only prevent progress in the film industry.
In the USA Canada, England and certainly at home, the movie houses are showing the best productions of all these film producers, including Bollywood, and the majority will do well.
A lot has been made of the XMAS openings of SRK’s DIWALI and Pri. Chopra MD a historical love story, but both made lots of money in India and overseas….neither made a loss, nor come close to..We saw both, as well as several of Hollywood’s top productions. People have the time and the money to spend at these times and if the films are good, they will turn in their numbers to see both out to see all of them.
For me, it was sad to see that SK’s “Sultan”, was given a free run, and without competition, as film could be considered a Blockbuster purely by making money. The hype given the film and the accommodation given by the competitors should never have occurred..I would have been happy if SRK;s RAEES was released as planned, and if it had been done, the Box Office returns would have been even better, because the audience would have running from cinema to cinema to compare the films.
@Makkiholic:-
One thing that you are very good at is to run away from a question where you don’t have an answer…when you keep blabbering about non-holiday opening power of HR, myself and many others asked your opinion of Krrish 3’s 25cr opening on a pre-diwali day where most of the families traditionally won’t come out for movies due to Diwali preparations…you will never answer it and keep putting up bullshits (as usual) as reply..
Another thing is you said as per your bible BOI Makki has 2 20cr+ days with HF3 and Brothers….so what is this then…?
http://www.boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=2065
Why is BOI saying poor Makki only has one 20+ opening in his entire career which he achieved after 25 years and 140 movies?
And you are saying you only follow BOI…fine..no issues…but then why were you blabbering about SIB’s 20.67 cr opening in many other articles here…? As per BOI it is only 16cr….right? So why not stick on to it..?
Listen dumbo….if you are quoting BOI numbers for Hrithik movies…you can do so although we don’t give a damn to it…but if you say you only follow BOI then quote their numbers only for your Makki….but the saddest part for you is even if you try bringing down HR with the fake BOI numbers your Makki still cannot even dream about crossing HR’s top 2 movies even in BOI as a solo hero….pathetic state of affairs Lol!
@Razibb
July 26, 2016 at 11:34 pm
Were you the one who made that seal? Just curious to know looking at your comment Lol!
Well I am thankful to Hrithik coz he has given superpowers to even his haters…so much so that they are able to pass the verdict of his movie even before the release from the trailer itself! Lol
honestly mohenjo daro will take 18-20cr opening
and rustam will 12-15cr
@sunny kites was the biggest non-holiday opener of all time ,krrish 3 op. was biggest on non-holiday(acc. to prod. fig.) and around 19 cr. acc to boi in pre-diwali release and there r some actors who give 15 cr. op. with franchise
and sib also got a holiday release what happened????? just 16 cr.
ps- i’m taking boi fig. bcoz u r saying if u want prod. fig then hrithik had given 25+cr. opening on non-holiday
otherwise i don’t believe in a site who first say movie is a hit & after some months change it to semi-hit(jodha akbar) & first they say blockbuster & then change it to superhit(welcome)
The fight between Hro and Akki fans is interesting !!!!
@hritikiam from nepal u r ri8 but jodha akbar had a bann in 5 states and some issues with distributers thats why it didn’t take the adv. of first day ,if ja was not banned it will be a superhit and mohenjo daro will take a good start its a pred. not actual coll. never seen before action promos and 2nd trailer is yet to come .Social media negativity does not matter if neutral audience loved the movie & whole team is very confident about the content just hope the content will be great like jodha akbar
I used to go through lot of Bollywood website, good thing about indicine is “they written with hearts and for common man to understand, keep it up.
I m huge fan of Akki Hritik but ‘Mohenjodro’ missing buzz totally, not sure why it is happening,trailer was not that Bad,subject was very interesting but nothing seems to be working for it.
Rustom 165c
Md132
Dishoom76
“but the big interest that we usually associate with Hrithik films is missing this time around. It’s difficult to pin-point the problem, but a excellent / bumper opening is certainly out of question at this point in time”
Couldn’t disagree more. Way to underrate Hrithik’s stardom. It will take excellent/bumper opening depending on number of screens.
Indicine has gone mad! MD will have a 20-22cr opening. I’m ready to hv a £500 bet on this, anyone? Do
Don’t under estimate the power of Hrithik he is the most powerful star after the khans and he will soon overtake coward khan after Raees flops.
Wow indicine. Hartts off to you. No doubt why 13 cr? In fact you should reduce it to 8 cr to please and do chamchagiri of jokertards. I am loving it. Keep trying your level best. I have already lost faith from your site. No doubt, being a fan, I trust my icon and I know what he is capable of. We don’t need any fake sites support or wannabe trades’ opinion. We all are enough to give a bumper opening of our icon. Mark my words we all HRians will flock to theaters on first day and prove how to give a huge opening without fake support of your site. We all know what joker is capable of. Solo release and one of the most popular franchise and opening 15 cr.? We also saw how huge blockbuster his highly acclaimed movies like baby and special 26 were. One was 60 cr affair and one crowded to 90 cr. Ha ha ha. Wait and watch this ID (independence day) how big a star HR is.
my Prediction ..
Dhishoom 80 to 100 core
Mohenjodaro 175 to 200 core
Rustom 70 to 90 core ……………….
@Indicine : Didnt expect this from you. You earlier stated that Rustom will open above 20 crores, but now only 12.5 crores? Didn’t expect this from you.
#True Salman Fans
Dishoom- 11-13 crores
Mohenjodaro- 16-18 crores
Rustom- 8-11 crores
Flying Jatt- 7-10 crores
Mohenjo Daro is going to be blockbuster, one of the best performance in HR career.
Rustum, is going to be average to hit due to small budget and increasing buzz bcoz clashing with one of the most awaited movie of the year and one of the biggest budget movie in Bollywood history.
Mohenjo Daro, is going to be blockbuster and HR will deliver one of the best performance in his career.
Rustom, will be hit due to small budget movie and clashing with one of the most awaited movie of the year and one of the biggest budget movie in Bollywood history.
Hrithik Roshan, charge for MD 50 crore
Rustom movie, budget is 35 crore
No comparison