Dishoom, Mohenjo Daro, Rustom Box Office Update

2016 has been a fairly good year for ‘IndicineFBO’. We have accurately predicted 14 out of 20 major film releases this year. The two highly inaccurate predictions were ‘Great Grand Masti’ – which was a very difficult film to predict because of piracy – and ‘Fitoor’ – which was a huge disaster at the box office inspite of Katrina Kaif’s presence.

We consider ‘Sultan’ to be our best prediction of 2016, because a film that looked certain to cross the 40 crore mark on its first day, fell about 10% short because the Eid holiday was postponed at the very last moment. The difference between our prediction and the actual collection was 5%.

The second half of the year will be much more interesting and challenging. Predicting the two major clashes (Rustom vs Mohenjo Daro and Shivaay vs Ae Dil Hai Mushkil) isn’t going to be easy.

Below, we have a quick FBO update on some of the upcoming releases. Please note, the final prediction will be made on Thursday (or the day before release).

Dishoom: The response to the trailer of Rohit Dhawan’s Dishoom was mixed and the marketing campaign hasn’t been stellar either. Varun has gone all out, like he’s done for almost all his films. There is more at stake for the Dhawans, as Dishoom is Varun’s brother Rohit’s second film as director. The USP of the film seems to be action, comedy and scenes involving John and Varun. The love angle hasn’t really been promoted. One song has worked (Sau Tarah Ke), the rest haven’t. The special song featuring Varun and Parineeti had a fantastic hook and teaser, but the full song promo proved to be a massive disappointment. The dialogue and action promos have generated a bit of excitement, but the film is now looking at a 9-10 crore opening on Day 1 and the rest will depend on content. The timing of release is good, as there hasn’t been a big film release after ‘Sultan’ for the Hindi audience and the youth might come out in big numbers.

Mohenjo Daro: Hrithik Roshan will return to the silver screen after 2 years with one of the riskiest films of 2016. The Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film is expected to get a wider release as compared to ‘Rustom’, but the big interest that we usually associate with Hrithik films is missing this time around. It’s difficult to pin-point the problem, but a excellent / bumper opening is certainly out of question at this point in time – unless the second trailer turns out to be mighty impressive. Mohenjo Daro should open somewhere in the 13-14 crore range. The success of the film will depend on word-of-mouth. The growth on Saturday – Sunday – Monday (holiday for Independence Day) will be crucial and decide the fate of the film.

Rustom: Before the trailers, the odds were heavily stacked in favour of Mohenjo Daro, but the makers of Rustom are yet to put a step wrong. Music was never going to be a important factor for Rustom, it was important to make an impact with the trailer and that’s what they did. The battle is going to be closer and it wouldn’t be surprising if Rustom matches up to Mohenjo Daro on Day 1. A 10 crore plus opening looks like a certainty for now.

[advert]

Happy Bhag Jayegi: The promo has been received fairly well. It has that ‘Tanu Weds Manu’ feel to it, which could help the film take a decent opening on Day 1. The opening should be well below a film like ‘Neerja’. We are currently looking at Day 1 of around 2 – 3 crore, but the promotional campaign has only just begun.

A Flying Jatt: Tiger Shroff has a growing fan-following at mass-centres, a section of the audience that very few young actors cater to. ‘A Flying Jatt’ has lower production standards as compared to a film like ‘Baaghi’, which will restrict its audience at multiplexes, but the film should open very well in the Hindi belt. A multiplex dominated circuit like East Punjab could drive the collections of the film and ensure a decent 8-9 crore opening. Anything more will be exceptional.

Akira: The trailer was Akira was released at the beginning of the month. Since then, we haven’t heard much about the film. Was the trailer released too early? Either way, it should take a decent 3-4 crore opening.

Movie	Prediction	Official
Wazir	4.4	5.61	+ 27%, In accurate
Airlift	10.9	12.35	+ 13%, Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3	9.3	8.15	- 12%, Accurate
Mastizaade	6.1	5.59	- 8%, Accurate
Saala Khadoos	2.2	2.19	0%, Accurate
Ghayal Once Again	6.4	7.2	+ 12%, Accurate
Sanam Re	5.5	5.04	- 8%, Accurate
Fitoor	5.2	3.61	- 30%, Inaccurate
Neerja	4.3	4.7	+ 8%, Accurate
Jai Gangajaal	5.2	5.5	+ 6%, Accurate
Kapoor & Sons	5.8	6.85	+ 18%, Inaccurate
Rocky Handsome	6.3	5.39	- 14%, Accurate
Ki and Ka	6.3	7.27	+ 16%, Inaccurate
Fan	21.9	19.2	- 12%, Accurate
Baaghi	9.4	11.94	+ 27%, Inaccurate
Azhar	7.5	6.3	- 16%, Inaccurate
Sarbjit	4.2	3.69	- 12%, Accurate
Housefull 3	17.4	15.21	- 12%, Accurate
Udta Punjab	8.9	10.05	- 13%, Accurate
Sultan	38.5	36.54	- 5%, Accurate
Great Grand Masti	5.8	2.5	- 56%, Inaccurate
Dishoom	9.8	11.02	+12%, Accurate
Mohenjo Daro	10.7	8.87	- 17%, Inaccurate
Rustom	12.6	14.11	+12%, Accurate
Happy Bhaag Jayegi	2.1	2.32	+10%, Accurate
A Flying Jatt	8.5	7.11	- 16%, Inaccurate
Baar Baar Dekho	9.1	6.81	- 25%, Inaccurate
Freaky Ali	2.4	2.5	+4%, Accurate
Pink	4.5	4.32	-4%, Accurate
Raaz Reboot	5.2	6.31	+ 21%, Inaccurate
MS Dhoni	20.1	21.6	+7%, Accurate
Mirzya	4.0	2.2	- 45%, Inaccurate
Shivaay	10.7	10.24	-4%, Accurate
ADHM	12.4	13.3	+7%, Accurate
Force 2	5.8	6.05	+4%, Accurate
Dear Zindagi	9.7	8.75	-10%, Accurate
Kahaani 2	4.5	4.25	-5%, Accurate
Befikre	10.5	10.36	-1%, Accurate
Dangal	28.6	29.78	+4%, Accurate