Christmas Weekend Analysis: Bollywood Box Office

It’s the biggest weekend of the year and we have two films lined up for release in 2015. Rohit Shetty’s Dilwale and Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Bajirao Mastani will be battling it out for box office supremacy. But the reason both makers want this weekend is because Christmas has been the most lucrative weekend for film business – better than the other two festivals, Eid and Diwali.

Back in 2008 when Aamir Khan released Ghajini, the period was considered to be dull for film business. It gets freezing cold in major cities like New Delhi and surrounding cities of the National Capital Region and the other centres in the North are also affected by the cold wave. But Aamir Khan came, he saw and he conquered the weekend.

A combination of his stardom and quality films resulted in him delivering the highest grosser of all time – every single time he released a film during Christmas, the film went on to be a All Time Blockbuster.

Check out the list of Christmas releases since 2008.

  • 2008: Ghajini 116 crore – All Time Blockbuster
  • 2009: 3 Idiots 202 crore – All Time Blockbuster (74% growth over previous year)
  • 2010: Tees Maar Khan 61 crore – Semi Hit (70% year-on-year drop)
  • 2011: Don 2 112 crore – Hit (83% drop from 2010, 44% drop from 2009)
  • 2012: Dabangg 2 155 crore – Blockbuster (38% growth from 2011, 23% drop from 2009)
  • 2013: Dhoom 3 285 crore – All Time Blockbuster (85% growth)
  • 2014: PK 341 crore – All Time Blockbuster (18% growth)

Shah Rukh Khan and Akshay Kumar released their films during the same weekend, but both weren’t very successful. Salman Khan did better, but Dabangg 2 wasn’t as big a success as the first film and Salman couldn’t quite match upto to the success of Aamir films.

Aamir and Yash Raj Films started a new trend in 2013, when they released Dhoom 3 a week before Christmas, giving their film 3 open weeks at the box office. The result was even better, as Dhoom 3 went on to amass Rs 288 crore net in India and was a 600 crore plus grosser worldwide. A year later, with a similar release date, the 3 Idiots duo of Aamir and Rajkumar Hirani returned and struck box office gold yet again. The numbers were simply mind-boggling.

This year, with two movies releasing in the same weekend and 3 open weeks at the box office, the stakes are very high (combined cost is nearly Rs 250 crore) and the expectations even higher. Can Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani combined, generate business in excess of Rs 400 crore in India? How will the two films perform overseas? Will there be year-on-year growth – if not, the trade will be disappointed if the two films combined can’t collect as much as PK did last year.

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77 Comments

  • My final predictions for both films based on all out comes from both teams . Both films failed to generate hipes on festival like Christmas but still BAJIRAO generated much better hypes as compared to Dilwale

    combined lifetime collections will be something around 300 Cr considering the fact that biggest Hollywood film STAR WAR the force awareness is releasing 2nd week and super cold weather and srk always come up with biggest films on biggest festivals and make noise by promoting widely but always failed at box office except CE maily because CE was good comedy film

    share divided by two :
    Dilwale : BAJIRAO = 8 : 7

    means
    Dilwale ……. 160 Cr
    BAJIRAO … 140 Cr

    like it or not , Collections will not be much higher than this

    HAR HAR MAHADEV

  • Word of mouth from gulf countries is really good there. Almost all halls are booked. If same is in india expect the unexpected for boxoffice for dilwale maybe outside chance to even beat dhoom 3. In sh allah

  • That is the reason why Aamir Khan on Christmas is simply in his league of his own..giving 4 All time blockbusters and each of them further becoming all time highest grossers is simply no child’s play…this is the reason why Dangal is my most awaited film of next year because it is Aamir Khan coming on Christmas and that is what matters the most to me

  • @Shahid, you moron, TZP was blockbuster. Check your facts. It earned more than thrice of its budget. So it was a blockbuster.

  • SRK Fans have Defined the word ‘CLASS’ again.
    They are saying all movies which worked were Classics
    So According to them DHOOM 3 & GHAJINI were Classics while DON 2 was Crap.
    Now I have understood Why they were Trending
    HNY BEST MOVIE EVER.
    BTW Did you notice AAMIR released 2 MOVIES-2 ATBB on Christmas THEN
    SRK released his Film on CHRISTMAS & then
    Aamir released 2 MOVIE-2ATBB 1 WEEK before Christmas
    & Now SRK is releasing his film on 1 Week before Christmas.

  • @Babaji good point .
    2007 christmas should also be there in list ?

    @Rajesh bade hero k fans chote hero k fans K muh nhi lgte ? don’t argue with an actor’s fan .

  • @Rajesh good point but remember tksh was meant for kids and first 3d live animated movie. those that will watch it was kids during that holiday period. It was target for children. Haa aur 70% of cinema going are youths and adults so you expect them to watch Tees maar khan. That is why it is never mentioned in any clash.
    @aisha why are you harsh on Akshay. You have changed. Pls be more polite. I am also a Superstar Akshay fan but I respect Ajay who is also a superstars. You follow people comment here then you will always be saying bad things so why not you stop ignoring other comment and be yourself thanxs you

  • Legend Aamir khan for a reason. No one can compete with Aamir on Christmas.Even on festive season despite having two films, combined collection won’t cross Pk net collection.
    Dangal will show what Aamir Khan name stand for.
    Most awaiting film of next year.

  • @ sunny mere pair Abhi tak zameen par hai , Akki Sir working with Rajni Sir I know film will collect good business . Akki sir Superstar hain unke pair Abhi tak zameen par hai . Akki sir always respect each actor .

  • @jalaan k badboo sunny chechi you are the most outdated and less important visitor in this site. No matter how hard we fans try not to bash Akki you always bring topics especially retarded off pointer. I won’t blame anybody scolding at you your friends don’t even help matters except for Rajesh Kulkarni. telling him to ignore other actors fan will be ideal if only you had respected yourself.
    the same you
    go to every Ajays article and just start saying things that can never be turned back no matter how hard you try.
    When peace is reigning from both parties you follow even the most irrelevant highlights like indicine called him actor I mean you have a problem or what. How many times indicine attach superstar to his name and other sites including media journals regarding movies. ask questions like who is bigger varun or ajay. That’s to immature of you. are you Ajay fan. you even talk on his fans behalf every single ajay article. Now telling rajesh not to involve with small actors then why you get extra involved crying out loud why superstar tag in all his related taaza kabaar that’s bullshit bro. it’s making you feel unsecured fan. You start everything first next excuse is because they are comparing him with makki . Who is they? why fooling your level of thinking. Listen it’s High time you grow up and stop thinking of ajay as a well known habit every single minutes. it’s showing openly. I wonder how indicine post such irritating and off track comments of yours

  • Comment wise :-1.?ilwale @ #full_ntertainer
    2.ßajiraoMastani @ #master_piece

    Collection wise :- ?ilwale = Rs.180 to 210cr.
    ßajiraoMastani = Rs.120 to 150cr.

    Review wise :- ?ilwale – 3 stars
    ßajiraoMastani – 4 stars

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