AskIndicine Question and Answer session will be held at 6PM today. Post your questions in the comments section below:
Q. Top 5 actors currently?
A. Current standing – Aamir Khan, Salman Khan, Akshay Kumar, Shah Rukh Khan, Hrithik Roshan.
Q. Which one is bigger flop Tubelight or JHMS
A. Jab Harry Met Sejal.
Q. Which actors does corporate bookings? How to calculate real value of opening for such actors?
A. Most big films. It’s difficult to calculate the exact amount, it’s still ticket sales.
Q. Why isn’t Akshay Kumar films opening on Day 1?
A. It isn’t a cause for concern as long as his films do well. Akshay Kumar is now becoming a Saturday – Sunday star more than Friday morning. His films are not getting an initial on Friday, but the city audience is coming out in much bigger numbers than ever before on Saturday and Sunday. This could be because of the kind of films he’s doing. Hardcore commercial entertainers like Rowdy Rathore are Friday morning films. Airlift, Rustom, Toilet etc are less commercial, more story/content drive. They get their best day on the last two days of the weekend. The risk with the multiplex city audience is, if the film is not good, they’ll reject it. On the other hand, without the support of multiplexes, films can’t recover their costs. So it’s all about balance in today’s times. Only films that have something in it for everyone will go on to become big grossers.
Q. I’ve looked up your list of actors about their movie collections & verdict in that list SRK had zero disasters registered to his name, so is JHMS SRK’s first disaster or is it just a flop?
A. Jab Harry Met Sejal is a humongous disaster. The domestic distributors share of the film is going to be less than 30 crore, which is about one-fourth of the landing cost. We have to be looking at the loss incurred by the distributors. If pre-release producer profit is taken into consideration, then a film is a winner even if it collects 10 crore at the domestic box office.
Distributor recovery is most important. Also, when you sell a film for a high price, give it a proper showcasing and it has such a big star cast – it has to collect a certain amount. 65-70 crore lifetime is what films like Dear Zindagi are earning and they were sold for a very low price compared to Jab Harry Met Sejal. Such films also have zero satellite value. JHMS is all round failure and there’s no question of defending the genre or ‘nicheness’ of the film either. If the film is niche and has limited audience, you need to plan the budget accordingly and then sell it for a price that justifies. You can’t be setting it up as a commercial blockbuster, get the price you want and then try to create perception that audience is limited for such films.
Q. With so many factors going in TEPK favour, superb trailer, good promotion, Akki’s successful streak with good scripts. What will it take for Akshay to give excellent openings he constantly use to give in mid 2000s?
A. The trailer was good, but apart from that not much worked in favour of the film. The music did not work, which is important for films to get initial at smaller centres. Promotional campaign was mainly internet centric. The political angle may not really convert into ticket sales. As for the opening, we’ve answered a similar question above. It looks like a change in trend. Audience for Akshay films are coming on Saturday and Sunday, not Friday morning – which is usually the single screen audience or hardcore fans of the actor. Akshay isn’t really doing the kind of films that appeals to his core fan base at smaller towns.
Q. What is the future project of Hrithik Roshan and what is the current status of super 30 and Krrish 4?
A. No update. A rumoured Hrithik Roshan film and him officially signing the film, is comparable to the beginning and end of a marathon. Most of his rumoured films, don’t happen. And sometimes even the films that he’s at the last stage of finalisation, fall through. Krrish 4 is happening, but there’s time.
Q. Who is the best comedy movies director. Rohit Shetty, Anees Bazmee, David Dhawan, Priyadarshan, arrange them according to your view.. All have blockbuster movies on Comedy Genre.
A. Our pick in order of preference. David Dhawan, Priyadarshan, Anees Bazmee, Rohit Shetty.
Q. Please analyse the kind of movies Akshay has opted for in last 2 yrs and even coming time. Where do u see him in terms of quality of movies all with different subjects?
A. Akshay is playing a very smart game. If an actor is intelligent, it has to show in his work and in Akshay’s case, his smartness is in his choice of films. He knows very well that doing big expensive films is time consuming and even getting dates of a top actress means a lot of adjustments and messy schedules. It doesn’t suit his style of functioning. He knows aiming to do what Salman / Aamir do can be very risky. One film like Tubelight can bring distributors / sub-distributors to the streets. With films like Toilet or Jolly LLB 2 or Padman, the risk is limited. They can be shot in quick time, he can make his money, he can afford to give the audience / fans something new in terms of content and if it clicks – his films can be very profitable for all involved, including him. It’s been working for the last two years, so no point trying to change something that’s working so well for you. He will continue to experiment and maybe do one big film in a while, like Robot 2.0.
Q. After TEPK is Akshay ahead of SRK now?
A. It’s too early to talk about Toilet Ek Prem Katha, post-Sunday collections has become crucial now. Weekend trend can be quite deceptive, like we’ve seen with films like ‘Jagga Jasoos’. But having said that, in terms of current standing, definitely Akshay Kumar is ahead after the failure of JHMS. Current standing is different from ‘stardom’. Only the opening day is not important – making sure the film is profitable for all is most important and entertaining your audience / fans is also equally important – because if you constantly disappoint them, the number of audience for your future films might gradually decrease. It’s happened for Akshay before, but credit to him for realising it quickly and coming up with the kind of films that he has in the last 2 odd years.
Q. After a super successful 2017, where do u see Akshay in 2018? All his movies look different and interesting.
A. There’s great excitement amongst the multiplex audience for Akshay Kumar films now. Toilet Ek Prem Katha, even though it did not look exciting or commercial, the audience – atleast in cities – were keenly waiting for the film. This has reflected in the Saturday and Sunday (again big growth) collections. After Toilet, he has Robot 2.0 and Padman. Again, very different films and great variety. Even though it’s difficult to predict how films will shape up, we think he’ll continue his strong run in 2018.
Q. Gangs of Wasseypur 1 and 2 are considered as modern classic then why Gangs of Wasseypur 3 got shelved?
A. India is vast country. A small bunch of people liking a film (which includes critics), does not make a film a ‘modern classic’. Dangal can be called a modern day classic. The first Gangs Of Wasseypur film failed commercially, the second was a bigger failure. Filmmaking is a business, money is invested to make profits. When that’s not happening, there won’t be investors and when there are no investors, films will get shelved.
Q. Given the kind of trend Toilet is showing, is it possible to reach 160 crore mark in lifetime?
A. It’s a very difficult prediction to make because of holidays. The word-of-mouth isn’t extraordinary either, infact it’s quite mixed. The second half seems to be the problem. Our IndicineLBO prediction is ready, but we are waiting for some sort of confirmation on tax exemption. Some people internally are saying it could get tax exemption in many more states after Independence Day. That could make a significant difference. 160 crore looks highly unlikely even with tax benefits, but do wait for our prediction article later today.
Q. Is content overtaking stardom nowadays?
A. Content is important, but so are stars. Only stars can take films like Dangal or Bajrangi Bhaijaan to those levels of business. Most look for reasons to watch a film. As soon as you have Aamir Khan, the business potential explodes. With all due respect, if a Dangal had Irrfan Khan in the lead, it would probably max out at 60-70 crore (best case). Aamir took it to 2000 crore gross worldwide. That’s the value that major stars who are recognised and loved, can add to a film. But with ticket prices so high, if a star begins to think he’s bigger than the film itself and starts to take his fans or audience for granted, he’ll be booted out. Irrespective of how big he is. That’s the audience of today, especially in major cities.
Q. What does mean tax free in case of a movie ? If a movie is declared tax free, then who will get the benefit ?
A. GST or Entertainment tax is exempted (not applied). That means, the entire ticket amount will get shared between exhibitors (theatre owners) and distributors / producers of the film. It also helps reduce ticket prices, hence making films more affordable and increasing the footfalls (i.e number of audience that watch a film).
Q. Why hasn’t Bollywood made an intelligent movie like ‘Interstellar’ or ‘Inception’ till date?
A. We also need audience to watch those intelligent films. The audience for intelligent or films that get a little puzzling, is very limited. Also, how many directors do we have of the calibre of Christopher Nolan in our industry? Some of our most intelligent directors and actors make the most stupidest of films.
Q. What is the genre of SRK’s dwarf film ? If it is a proper love story don’t you think it should be shelved after seeing disastrous performance of JHMS ?
A. It can’t be shelved now. Aanand L Rai is a good director and as long as he does the movie the way ‘he’ wants it to, it should be a good film. But if there’s influence somewhere or changes in the script to match SRK’s image / persona.. that’s when the film begins to get into trouble. From what we know, the script of Dilwale was actually much better than what it eventually turned out to be. The script was changed to extend the love angle between SRK – Kajol, a few other changes were also made.
Q. You have predicted 25 crore for TEPK when trailer released but now before one day of release you predict 13-14Cr!! Now can you please predict total box office collection of TEPK?
A. Where do you get these numbers from? We never took Toilet Ek Prem Katha above 16-17 crore. We’ve never predicted 20 crore or above or any Akshay Kumar film.
Q. Indicine I’m huge fan of your site and always visit but you never answer my question, please tell me who is the biggest superstar of current Decade and can he remain biggest till 2020 please answer me please.
A. It’s Salman Khan and that’s unlikely to change unless Aamir Khan does 1-2 movies every year for the next 3 years and Salman suddenly drops off and delivers 4 back to back box office failures. Even then his record this decade is beyond phenomenal.
Q. Buzz is SRK is working with Aditya Chopra on a period drama film .shooting will start in end of 2017. Is it true?
A. We’ve heard 3 rumours of SRK’s upcoming unannounced films and all three sound very interesting. But how can we talk about it before it’s official? Let there be an announcement first, after that we can discuss its potential and how it could shape his next 2-3 years.
Q. We keep saying India still depends on star power to deliver the big hits (with the exception of Baahubali) but stories of the movies are becoming really important in recent times, then If say SRK had done Hindi Medium, would that movie have grossed 200 crores?
A. SRK doing a film like Hindi Medium may not really work. It doesn’t sound convincing. We’ve got to remember that even Hindi Medium worked only in a few cities. SRK’s audience is too big for him and the appeal of films like Hindi Medium is limited.
Q. After JHMS tanked at the box office don’t you think SRK should move away from romance and try different scripts like Aamir? Also do u guys think that masala movies will work nowadays with a good storyline?
A. It’s now or never for SRK. With age no longer on his side, his choice of films has to change immediately. Next 2-3 films will be very important. His core audience base is still families, who haven’t been coming to theatres to watch his films. To answer your second questions – Almost all universally successful Indian films are masala, which means a bit of every genre. A film like ‘Main Hoon Na’ today, genuine clean family entertainment, would still be a blockbuster. Chak De India has potential to be as huge as Dangal. But who exactly are you making films like Jab Harry Met Sejal for? The promos of the film itself sealed its box office fate. But even then we did not expect 60 crore lifetime, this sort of number for such a big film means outright rejection from every section of the audience.
Q. Don’t you think Rajkumar Hirani has become repetitive with his films? And does Dutt really have potential to do very well? And can you state the net worth of Rajkumar Hirani if you know? I read it is 172 million $ but how he has just made 4 films.
A. The lead characters of Raju Hirani films have similarities, the concept of his films have been different though. As long as it works as well as his first four films have – there may not be any reason to make drastic changes. The real-life persona of Sanjay Dutt is also very similar to the lead characters of Hirani films i.e misunderstood man with a heart of gold. The story of the film and its treatment is a top secret. And that’s how it should be too. About his net worth, please avoid asking such questions, we do not know his personal net worth. He also directs advertisement films etc. So a film director can do a lot work and earn a lot of money outside Hindi films too.
Q. I dont have any question. Just wanted to wish you Happy birthday !! (11 years of indicine)
A. We are happy to know that people remember the date we started the site too. It’s on 20 August 2006 that we registered the website. And yes it’s 11 years. We think we have retained a lot of readers from the olden days. Thanks again.
Q. Why are you expecting such low opening for A Gentleman and Baadshao? There holidays for Ganesh Chaturthi and Bakrid on Day 1 respectively. Can’t Gentleman open at 10 crore and Baadshao at 15 crore?
A. A Gentleman had a good trailer, but the song promos that have released after that – which also gets played repeatedly on television – give it a typical rom-com look and feel. It’s also looking western. They haven’t released action promos either. We have informed them about this. They have planned to push their campaign after Toilet.EPK i.e tomorrow onwards. The advantage of Ganesh Chaturthi is there, but we have seen in the last few years that business can get affected where it’s a major festival. We’ll have to wait and see how Baadshaho progresses, it’s currently not that hot to get a 15 crore plus start even on Bakrid.
Q. Don’t you it is time we should write off Shahrukh khan? 1-2 flops are fine but 4 consecutive under preformers that too one lower than the other is not acceptable. Dilwale came as a shocker when it lost the clash against a relatively smaller film, Fan also shocked when it couldn’t even reach 100 crore when his contemporaries are hitting the century within three days, The only thing remaining was a disaster and Jab Harry met Sejal did the honours. So shall we write off Shahrukh khan or do we still need to wait for his movie with Anand L Rao to become another flop?
A. Not at all, even though the wait for that one great film has been way too long now. He still has the potential to be one of the biggest, if not ‘the’ biggest. With the kind of films he’s doing, most actors would’ve folded up by now. But he’s still getting those weekend totals. 15 crore opening is still a big ask for all barring 2 or maybe 3 actors in the industry. If he doesn’t get atleast one of his next two films right, it’ll be a waste of all the talent that he has.
Q. Do you think Judwaa 2 has the potential to cross 100 crore in its first week considering it has a big four day weekend? Will it release on 3500 screens? Any internal reports about how the movie has shaped and when will the trailer be out?
A. 100 crore in the first week is difficult. It has holidays, but for a Varun Dhawan film to average above 14 crore over a 7 day period is still a big ask. The release will be wide, we can’t talk about the number at this time. The trailer was supposed to come out with Toilet, but they’ve decided to keep the marketing campaign shorter and they’ll be trying a few different things too – as the set marketing campaigns of today seem to be backfiring and reducing ticket sales in theatres.
Q. Why do you always under-estimate Ajay Devgn? Isn’t he a major crowd puller among the masses (considering the fact that Shivaay did 100 cr bussiness only from single screens, he’s the only to achieve this feat apart from Salman Khan).
A. Where do you get these numbers from? Even the India net + overseas gross of Shivaay is not 100 crore, please ask the distributors of the film. More than 80-85% of business of all Hindi films is from multiplexes. So unless multiplexes support, films won’t get those big numbers. How are we underestimating Ajay Devgn? On our FBO page, Baadshaho is currently at 11.5 crore. Shivaay opened 10 cr /less than 10 cr. Drishyam opened at 6 crore in India. Action Jackson was 11. Satyagraha was 10. Himmatwala was 10. And Baadshaho does not belong to the Singham or Golmaal franchise. Hence the prediction, which is more than the average of his last few films. It’s our estimate / expectation, we could be wrong.
Q. I’m a huge fan of your Indicine & visit many times in a day you guys are doing a good job. What you think about collection of Toilet :Ek prem Katha & your prediction? Will it be another consecutive 100 cr for Akshay? And what will be impact of it’s collection on Top actors ranking?
A. Thank you for visiting. Yes, it should cross the 100 crore mark. We promise to put out the Top actors ranking as soon as we get an accurate idea about which range Toilet:EPK will finish its lifetime business.
Q. What is your stand on the importance of songs in films nowadays. I think they are fast becoming useless, when was the last time a film did well because of the songs, I can’t seem to remember, even the films which had chartbusters like Befikre, Baar Baar Dekho failed inspire of the popularity of the songs, there was a time around 10 years ago when music was Paramount to the success of a film but I think the Audiences have evolved from that. I also Think that the filmmakers should refrain from songs unless music is an integral part of the story like Aashiqui, Rockstar because it makes sense to have songs in those kind of films. Songs just add to the budget and length of the film nowadays without adding anything to the quality.
A. Songs are adding little or no value. Almost the entire song promo is out on the internet which can be watched multiple times. Watching the same song again in theatre is actually turning out to be boring. In olden days, the audience used to be curious about knowing how a song they like has been picturised on the actors. Now even that suspense and curiosity is missing. For example, in Judwaa 2, Varun will be recreating some songs from the old Salman film. From an audience point of view, if the promos are not released, they be curious about how Varun would perform on a Salman song and this would make them queue up at theatres. But when they put the full song out, it’s one reason less to watch the film.
Films these days are giving very little value, but the ticket prices are increasing. You get to see actors on TV for almost an entire month entertaining on various television shows, they post pictures and interact with fans almost everyday on Instagram / Twitter / Facebook. They are easily accessible and this has reduced the aura around actors. They are not larger than life now, they are not unreachable now.. over promotion of films, over exposure of stars, full song promos and increase in ticket prices are all adding to the gradual downfall of the industry.
Q. Will SRK’s dwarf film be in trouble because of JHMS failure at the box office?
A. He could have a film before the dwarf film and it should be very interesting if it happens. Let’s wait to see how it goes. Long time between now and the release of the dwarf film.
Q. Indicine Is Namesty Canada is confirmed With Arjun kapoor and Parineeti chopra playing leads If Arjun and Parineeti Are coming for this film then what about Sandeep Aur Pinky Faraar.
A. Sandeep Aur Pinky Faraar is Arjun’s next film. There’s time for the other film and there could be another film in between i.e before Namaste Canada and after Sandeep Aur Pinky Faraar.
Q. If Aamir is Sachin, then Akshay is Dravid of Bollywood. He might not have that big 300 crores, but he always delivers and that too not once but 5 times in 18 months. Many exhibitors would shut their shops if not for Akshay. It is he who keeps the clock ticking even in dull periods- Pvr, Inox etc. are business houses and they know how important Akshay is for them. If not for him, they will just be doing business once or twice every year. Akki keeps the scoreboard ticking and when we witnessed Salman, Srk and Ranbir failing, Akki once again came to rescue. Last year as well, we had a mammoth in Dangal but then Akshay gave not one but 3 100 crores – Srk had no release. One needs to understand the lane in which Akki is running. He has his movies release every 3-4 months, does not take breaks ! What happened when Srk tried 2 doing 2 movies in 1 year – Audience was easily bored and did not even turn up for JHMS. Even Raees did okay business and it was supposed to be mass movie. On the other hand, Akshay has not stopped at all – his only underperformer in last 3-4 years has been Brothers and that too was not outright rejection like JHMS and did 80+ crores. No point in bringing up his failures many years back – Srk might have been ahead then but we are talking about current standing. If Akshay is not in top 3, then it is really unfair and we do understand the biased nature of Bollywood.
A. Your point is worth putting across to all our readers. Nothing to add.
Q. Is it the end of road for Ajay Devgn & Shahrukh Khan, as Aamir Salman Akshay are consistent enough ?
A. How does the success or failure of one actor affect the other? There is space for all those actors and many more in this industry. We actually need more stars. The industry still hasn’t produced the next generation to replace the Khans or Akshay. Even a star of Hrithik’s calibre hasn’t been seen. Ranbir comes the closest, but he lacks mass appeal.
Q. Do you think Akshay Kumar will now start getting those bumper openings that he used to get back in 2007-08?
A. We thought he would after Rustom, but that hasn’t happened with both Jolly LLB 2 and Toilet:EPK. It could just be because the subject or scale does not make it a big initial film. In terms of opening, he was at a different level in mid 2000s. Even his audience overseas was much bigger.
Q. Can TEPK do a double digit on Monday and above 15 crores on Tuesday ? That would take the 5 day weekend above 70 and we can look at a 80 crore first week
A. Possible. Monday is partial holiday for Janmastami.
Q. Now what should SRK do to be back on track after not delivering any clean hit for 2 years?
A. He’s too big an achiever for us to advice, but from an industry’s point of view, because we still need him to be at his peak – we think he should get back to selecting good scripts and not just sign films because of the past achievements or films of the director. More heartland films, that are shot in India and have desi feel to it. Films that absolutely does not have romance as the main angle. Less pre-release hype – carpet bombing marketing strategies don’t work anymore. Finally, if SRK does good films and succeeds, somewhere it would make a lot of people happy. Fans, industry and trade included.
Q. Can Ranveer become top actor of this generation after the humongous Padmavati, multiplex centered and content oriented Gully Boy with a fresh pairing of Alia, Rohit Shetty’s next out and out action movie and Kabir Khan’z 1983 World Cup Movie where he plays Kapil Dev? rK
A. Ranveer has a lot of potential. He is raw talent and has the potential to become a favourite of the masses as well. He’s good at action too. So as long as the does the right films, he’ll be there a few years from now. About talk of topping the industry, it’s as silly as calling Padmavati ‘humongous’ a few months before its release.
Q. I am tired of asking question and not getting answer. It’s been a strange two weeks. SRK falls and rise of Akshay. Is it confirmed now that Akshay is the bigger star in domestic?
A. Yes. Akshay is at the second best phase of his career after mid-2000s. With the right balance of the kind of films he does, we think he’ll be consistent for a longer period of time now.
Q. What is your opinion on the appointment of new CBFC chief and members? Is Vidya Balan competent to be a board member?
A. It isn’t the easiest of jobs. India is such a vast and varied country that something in some film could end up hurting some section of the audience. It could even lead to a law and order problem. So just because Prasoon Joshi has been appointed as the head and everyone is hailing the decision, it doesn’t mean we’ll suddenly have an overly liberal Censor Board chief. We can only comment after 6 months of his term as CBFC chief. For now, it looks like a good decision by the government and Smriti Irani’s appointment as I&B minster has definitely helped in changing things around. She’s close to Ekta Kapoor and a lot of people within the industry. It would be easier for them to get issues sorted out, if there is one. Also, she knows how the industry functions and its issues too.
That ends AskIndicine for today, it’s been more than 4 hours since we started and we’ve answered more than 40 questions today. Thank you for joining us.