Jai Ho HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Jai Ho marks the return of Salman Khan to the silver screen after a gap of 13 months. The success that the superstar has enjoyed in the last few years has been remarkable to say the least. Each of his last 5 films have opened to packed houses across the country and have gone on to be huge blockbusters.

However, Jai Ho will be Salman’s biggest test as the film is almost entirely riding on his star power. Even though his other films opened well due to his presence, there were several other factors that helped:

• Ready: Successful director, decent supporting cast, super-hit music, post-IPL
• Bodyguard: Established heroine, popular music, good release date
• Ek Tha Tiger: Successful director, top leading lady, big banner, perfect release date, high production values
• Dabangg 2: Keenly awaited sequel, iconic character of Chulbul Pandey, fairly popular music, Christmas / New Year weekend.

Jai Ho has none of those. The music hasn’t really caught on, the production values aren’t as high as films like Dhoom 3 or Ek Tha Tiger, the film has a new leading lady (Daisy Shah) and director Sohail Khan’s last film (Maine Dil Tujhko Diya – 2002) was a box office dud. Also, unlike any other Salman film in the last 3 years, Jai Ho will have a normal non-holiday release as Republic Day falls on a Sunday.

Jai Ho has only two factors in its favour – the presence of arguably the biggest superstar in India and the fact that the film is a remake of a hugely popular Telugu film (Stalin).

While the trade has its fingers-crossed hoping for a opening that is on-par or slightly lesser than ‘Dhoom 3’, we expect the film to collect around 24-25 crore on its opening day.

Predictions for the remaining days, depending on the response that the film gets, is as follows:

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Friday – 25 cr
• Saturday – 27 cr
• Sunday – 30 cr (Republic Day)
• Weekend – 82 cr
• First Week –  130 cr
• Final – 200 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Friday – 25 cr
• Saturday – 24 cr
• Sunday – 27 cr
• Weekend – 76 cr
• First Week –  115 cr
• Final – 160 cr (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Friday – 24 cr
• Saturday – 19 cr
• Sunday – 22 cr (Republic Day)
• Weekend – 65 cr
• First Week –  95 cr
• Final – 110 cr

Quite obviously, if the content is strong then nothing can stop Jai Ho from succeeding at the box office. If reports are excellent, the film could even cross the 200 crore mark. But the response to most big films is either mixed or negative (classics like 3 Idiots that manage to tick every box are rare). So, as long as Jai Ho turns out to be a decent entertainer it should do well.

The film has absolutely no major competition in the next two weeks and should continue to do well at single-screens even after the release of Hasee Toh Phasee on Feb 7th.

Jai Ho will get a wide release in India, about the same release size as big films like Chennai Express. The advance booking opened on Monday and the response has been excellent at single screens where the Salman starrer is expected to take a record-breaking start. The advance is not so good at multiplexes, but not many even bother to book tickets as tickets are easily available over the counter on working days.

What are your expectations from Jai Ho? Hit or Flop? Will the film go on to be Salman’s 6th blockbuster in a row? Tell us!