AskIndicine: Live Now

Q. Can Anyone beat Salman’s 3 back to back 100 crore distributor share record (which would become 4 back to back after Sultan). And what will be the opening of Sultan on Holiday?

A. Records are meant to be broken. About 3-4 years ago, 100 crore (net) was a massive achievement. Now, it’s no big deal. With increase in the number of multiplex screens and ticket prices, 175 – 200 crore will be more easily achievable in the near future. So 3 back-to-back 100 crore distributor’s share, shouldn’t be difficult to achieve. Aamir might achieve the same record with the release of Dangal. He already has two back-to-back 100 crore domestic share films (Dhoom 3 and PK). As for Sultan releasing on Eid holiday (certain now, otherwise YRF would’ve announced a final date if they were not targeting Eid holiday), it should record the highest single-day and opening day collections.

Q. Any details regarding SRK - Aditya film? Is it true that SRK will play the role of a warrior?

A. This is what SRK tweeted yesterday “I am a Warrior, a Dwarf & a Guide.I am not wot I ought to, want or hope to be…I am all that & I am wot I am. My 2 bits on my upcoming ‘roles'” That’s confirmation from the man himself. It’s about time he did varied roles too, that’s the only way to bring the audience back to theatres. Not just the weekend fanbase, but the section of the audience that watch well-appreciated films. The chances of ‘mindless’ commercial entertainers failing is higher in today’s times. There are a lot of rumours about SRK – Adi film, but a YRF source has said it’ll be unlike any Aditya Chopra film (Befikre included). It’ll go on floors fall 2017.

Q. Which movie has highest footfalls in the history of Bollywood, Hum Aapke Hain Koun, Gadar:Ek Prem Katha, Dilwaley Dulhaniya Le Jaayenge or Sholay? Please give me top 10 list?

A. Out of those, Sholay. Some people in the trade say, the film sold over 25 crore tickets. The footfalls (number of tickets sold) of some of Amitabh Bachchan’s blockbusters is said to be 2-3x of the most watched films in today’s times. It’s unfair to compare too, because there were very few entertainment options in those days. Ticket prices were relatively cheaper, even after inflation is adjusted. There was no piracy, no entertainment on television, no Youtube or mobile phones either. The 2000 – 2009 decade belonged to Gadar. Current decade Bajrangi Bhaijaan is the most watched film.

Q. What is the official production budget of Mohenjo Daro?

A. Official figure hasn’t been released and they may never reveal it. There have been reports that Hrithik was paid Rs 68 crore for the film, which is more than the production cost of 90% Hindi films. It’s a very big film. Easily over 100 and closer to 150 crore. More accurate numbers close to release.

Q. You are predicting Sultan’s opening day & lifetime collections in your indicine lbo & indicine fbo respectively, but these are domestic collections can you please tell me how will Sultan fare internationally, i.e., Sultan’s overseas collections.

A. The opening will be earth shattering in UAE-GCC and Pakistan. North America should open well too. YRF has promoted the movie well overseas, so the worldwide gross in the first 3 days ‘should’ cross the 200 crore mark.

Q. Which is your favourite Akshay – Katrina movie among Humko Deewana Kar Gaye, Welcome, Namastey London, Tees Mar Khan and Singh is King?

A. Namastey London and Welcome.

Q. Who is the most successful actor in the history of Bollywood, Rajesh Khanna, Amitabh Bachchan or Salman Khan? Can you please give me list of Top 10 most successful actors in the history of Bollywood.

A. It depends on your definition of successful. If it’s success ratio, then Shah Rukh Khan tops. Among actors who’ve been in the industry for 20 or more years and done 50 or more films, he’s probably the only lead actor to have a 50% or better success ratio. Anything over 45% is very good, but 55% or better over a long career falls in the extraordinary category.

Q. When is the Mohenjo Daro trailer expected to release? How has been the response to the First look posters and First motion Teaser? Any chance of clash with Rustom getting averted?

A. It’s expected this week and the internal reports are phenomenal. The response to the first look of Hrithik and the first motion poster was excellent, but mixed for the Pooja Hegde poster. About the clash with Rustom, both films will have a better chance of doing well if they release separately. If the trailer of Mohenjo Daro gets a very good response, it will definitely make the makers of Rustom think.

Q. With Kaminey, Haider, now Udta Punjab & hopefully Rangoon, do you think Shahid Kapoor is leaving behind a legacy where aspiring/contemporary actors would be covetous? Because let’s be honest he’s progressing & coming into his own now. Notwithstanding, minor glitches here & there like Shandaar!

A. There is absolutely no doubt that Shahid Kapoor is a terrific actor. He has everything it takes to become a top star, but the problem is, the ‘glitches’ that you talk about haven’t really been minor. For a career that began in 2003, he’s had very few commercially successful films. His success ratio is 26% and hit-ratio is very poor at 17%. In other words, that means just one in 6 films are hits and only one in 4 films recover costs. That’s a very poor record for an actor as talented as him. Even his successful films haven’t been huge hits.

Actors who made their debuts years after him – Ranbir, Varun, Arjun, Ranveer.. now have one or more 100 crore grossers to their credit. Shahid’s best has been 70 crore. Even Tiger Shroff has bettered that in two films. To add to that, his films struggle for a good initial. So his career has been disappointing so far. Yes, there have been films like Haider and Kaminey, but they are only watched by a tiny section of the audience in 5-10 cities at best. He needs a couple of commercial films to do well. Why does he miss on out doing films like 2 States, Half Girlfriend or even a ABCD 3 or Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania? Films that work beyond those 5-10 cities? He needs to grow his fanbase and do films that also appeal to audience in smaller towns and cities. He’s still known for Vivah and most would probably not even know that he’s still doing films. His choice of directors is what has probably held him back.

Q. Who is the highest paid actor and actress in Bollywood. Please write about Top 5 highest paid actor and actress?

A. The Top 5 actors – Salman Khan, Aamir Khan, Shah Rukh Khan, Hrithik Roshan and Akshay Kumar – are also the Top 5 highest paid actors. Since their salary can be a burden on the film, they take share of the profit and some of their get the satellite fee too. Market value wise Aamir would probably command the highest because he does very few films and they go on to be major grossers too. In terms of outright salary, Hrithik Roshan is the highest paid.

Q. Do the makers show the film to distributors (who buy the films) before selling them? If yes why cant the distributors judge before hand the collection s that the movie may land up with? I mean if you guys can have so much accuracy in your FBO and LBO, why cant distributors with all their experience judge the final collections. This would enable them to minimise their losses and also push the makers to control their budgets? Your views?

A. There are way too many factors involved and the fate of films is very difficult to predict. Whether a distributor watches a film or not, also depends from film to film. For example, Rakesh Roshan sold the rights of Krrish 3 to individual distributors even before the film went on floors and all of them made a lot of money – even though they had to wait for 2 years for the film to release. So it also depends on the trust a director or actors involved command. For our LBO predictions, we can achieve higher accuracy by analysing the trends of films. But as things stands today, we have Mohenjo Daro at 190 crore plus and Rustom at 70 crore plus. This is what we call ‘trade expectation’ which are made based on the track record of actors, directors and also the appeal of the genre and period of release. But when the film eventually releases in theatres, it could also go in the opposite direction like we have seen with films like Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani. Dilwale was sold for exorbitant rates and there was huge demand – Chennai Express was the highest grosser, SRK – Kajol, Rohit Shetty, Varun Dhawan – all big names and the film was expected to easily cross the 200-225 crore mark in India, even in the worst case scenario. But the end result was Bajirao pretty much thrashed it in India.

Box office is almost impossible to accurately predict. Who’d have thought a film like Udta Punjab would open at 10 crore plus and 33 crore plus weekend? Film business is pretty much like a lottery or a jackpot, when you win, you win big. There are always more chances of losing money, but they try and take calculated risks.

Q. Is it possible to achieve 200 crore on non-holiday release in near future?

A. Definitely. If Tanu Weds Manu Returns could do 150 crore plus and The Jungle Book could do 190 crore inspite of competition from FAN, bigger films can obviously do a lot more if content clicks.

Q. What will you say about the Contribution of KHAN’s to Bollywood? Had there been no Khan’s what would have been our position?

A. Unimaginably huge. The industry has sustained and grown because of them. In the last 16 years (2000 – 2015), the three Khans have delivered the highest grosser of the year 12 times. Three of the other non-Khans films belong to Hrithik Roshan (KNPH 2000, KMG 2003, Dhoom 2 2006) and the other highest grosser was Gadar – Ek Prem Katha. So they not only dominated the box office in the 90s, but have also continued to deliver along with Hrithik and Akshay after 2000.

With the threat of Hollywood looming on the Hindi film industry, we need them to continue to deliver for the next 3-4 years at the very least, before the younger stars grow their fanbase and hope to match the Khans when it comes to star power.

Bollywood is a star-driven industry, we need big stars. We do not have the kind of budget or the quality of technicians (including writers / directors) that Hollywood has. Most of our audience come to watch movies because they like a particular star – which is exactly why most of our ‘lesser-star’ films don’t even get a decent initial.

Q. How is the response of Masti 3 trailer in public? Can it give 15 cr opening?

A. Quite liked the trailer to be honest. They have stuck to the formula that made the first two films successful. It should be a more entertaining film than both Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 and Mastizaade. Opening that we are currently looking at is 13-14 crore.

Q. Rajni Craze at 65 is unimaginable? Can Salman have the same at 60+?

A. Good looks are probably much more important for the national audience (Hindi movie watching public) as compared to the audience in the south. Rajnikanth has also spaced out his films – he releases one film every 2-3 years. His most successful films in recent times have been with director Shankar, who is probably the top director in the Tamil film industry. His other films like Kochadaiyaan and Lingaa were major disasters. So even Rajni needs good director to deliver the big grossers. As long as Salman can maintain his looks, space out his films and find commercial roles that suit his age – he will be able to sustain his standing. Finding leading ladies will be a concern in the next few years, if it isn’t already. Right now, he’s unstoppable, but one or two films that don’t do as well as expected, can suddenly change the perception.

Q. Any news on what Aamir is doing next as a full fledged lead role? Secret Superstar seems to be confirmed but that’d be more in the capacity of a producer and as support cast.

A. Aamir hasn’t signed any full-fledged role after Dangal. He’s said to be keen on doing the biopic on the life of Kishore Kumar. But like we all know, he does take a long time to sign films – the script has to be absolutely convince him. Once the shoot of Dangal is wrapped up, he might sign his next major film.

Q. How much is the Distributor Share of Airlift, Housefull 3 (Expected), Fan & Baaghi?

A. Airlift was 67 crore, Housefull 3 should be around 56 crore, FAN was 45 crore and Baaghi was 42 crore.

Q. Who according to you is the bigger star, Akshay Kumar or Ajay Devgn? Both have equal Rs 100 cr grossers, infarct Ajay’s highest grossing film (Singham Returns – 141cr) has collected more than Akshay’s highest grossing film (Rowdy Rathore – 131cr). Please give the reason for your choice.

A. Akshay Kumar is the bigger star. He’s been much more consistent as far as the opening of his films is concerned.

Q. Looking at the fantastic performance of conjuring 2, don’t you think a Bollywood pure horror (not horror+sex) can also do great if it has A Listers and not regular boring this genre actors like Emraan Hashmi and Bipasha?

A. The market for horror films is extremely small and the risk of not getting it right is too high. Sex is included because it helps sell the film to a larger section of the mass audience. Even the Raaz series wouldn’t work without sex and good music.

Q. How has SULTAN shaped up?Any inside reports?plz answer this time.

A. We can only answer if there is something that’s doing the rounds in the industry and we know someone who’s watched the film. About a week before release is a good time to ask such questions.

Q. Don’t you think it will be a massive disadvantage for both Rustom/Mohenjadaro to release on the same day. They both can be a potential blockbuster

A. Both films will lose money. Mohenjo Daro is the risker film because of its huge budget. Even if Rustom doesn’t find appreciation, it’ll still affect the business of Mohenjo Daro. The reason for this is fewer shows in Week 1. When two films release on the same day, the bigger film of the two, which would otherwise get 15 shows at a 3-screen multiplex, would get 8 – 9 shows. So even with good word-of-mouth, about 20-30% of business will be lost.

The distributor’s share at multiplexes is much higher in Week 1 as compared to Week 2 – this is exactly the reason why Aamir Khan has decided to release his film ‘Dangal’ on 23rd December this year. When the share is lower, the advantage of the Christmas holiday reduces for the investors. Exhibitors (theatre owners) benefit more than the producers. So it’s yet again a wise decision from Aamir to release his film during the Christmas week – because 60-65% of business would anyway come in the first week.

Rustom will also be affected and it would still need content to work, but the risk is way lower.

Some quick answers:

Q. What will the probable release date of SRK Imtiaz Ali next??

A. No confirmed release date. Second half of 2017.

Q. What is Housefull 3’s verdict?

A. Hit.

Q. Will Varun beat Ranbir if Dishoom collects 100 cr at box office?

A. Varun is already ahead of Ranbir.

Q. When was the Raees movie releasing? Don’t u think that better date to release on Bakri Eid?

A. There is no point discussing this now. Too late. Movie has already been postponed to 2017.

Q. You have predicted 192 crore for Mohenjo Daro with clash and 72 crs for Rustom, so you must be expecting nothing short of a masterpiece from Mohenjo Daro, isn’t it?

A. That’s what we’ve been hearing. It’s a massive film and the audience is liking period magnum opuses. Bajirao Mastani and Baahubali. Mohenjo Daro also has a director capable enough to direct such films. The scale of the film is huge too. So expectations, for obvious reasons, are very high. Rustom is more like Airlift. How much would Airlift do if it clashed with Mohenjo Daro? Probably 7-8 crore opening and 90 cr lifetime. So 72 crore isn’t a very low early prediction for Rustom. It’ll change after the trailers of the two films are released.

Q. How much should MD earn for Hrithik to topple Shahrukh from no.3 position?

A. If you’re asking about our Top Actors ranking, then Mohenjo Daro would need to collect 145 crore or more. It was also mentioned in that article – Top 15 Actors (April 2016)

Q. Is it true that Mohenjo Daro cracks 60 cr deal by selling it’s satellite and music rights …if yes then how much it will benefit the movie ?

A. Yes, but there is always a box office clause. It’ll make recovery easier.

Q. Can we expect almost 1000 cr collections from Salman next 3 upcoming movies till December 2017?

A. An astrologer would be more qualified to answer such questions. An average of 333.33 crore per movie needs content. We’ll have to wait for the movie to release to know.

Q. Why don’t actors like SRK, Ajay, Hrithik, Akshay and Salman work with each other…???

A. Producers can’t afford one of them, two will completely mess up the economics. There needs to be a script too and both need to get equal roles, else why will they do the film?

Q. Recently Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam completed 17 years say something about it?

A. One of Bhansali’s best films. Terrific chemistry between Aishwarya and Salman. We’ll never get to see them together onscreen ever again.

Q. Do people outside social media know if something like “Rustom” exists? I mean how is the buzz and hype for Rustom right now?

A. They do. Hype and buzz, for most films, is generated after the launch of the theatrical trailer.

Q. Which movie has received the best words of mouth so far in 2016?

A. The Jungle Book.

Q. How much do you like 3 khans?

A. Three much.

Q. When will the trailer of MohenjoDaro release? How are the response from those who have already watched it?

A. This week. Terrific.

Q. Who is the best action hero in Bollywood?

A. Always liked Akshay in action. One of our favourite articles here is this – Action superstar Akshay Kumar and the Khiladi series

Q. Best movie of Sunny Leone according to you?

A. Can’t disclose here.

Q. Varun Dhawan in Dishoom playing supporting or parallel or lead role?

A. A lot of people have been asking this question. It certainly looks like John is playing the lead from the trailer, but Varun is the lead.

Q. If you had to rate the best performance of Aamir, SRK, Salman, Akshay and Ajay. Then what would they be. Name only one of each of them ?

A. Aamir – PK. SRK – Chak De India. Salman – Tere Naam. Ajay – The Legend of Bhagat Singh. Akshay – He’s been good in a lot of films, can’t pick one.

Q. Is Udta Punjab a turning point for Shahid Kapoor as it is performing excellently for such genre?

A. Hopefully, it will be a turning point for him. But the movie opened well because of the censor board controversy.

That ends the QnA session for today. Thank you for joining us.