Tubelight Box Office Prediction

It’s that time of the year when the audience anticipate a Salman Khan film and the megastar hasn’t disappointed his fans in the last 7 out of 8 years. His record is incredible, arguably the best run the industry has ever seen.

Wanted, Dabangg, Bodyguard, Ek Tha Tiger, Kick, Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Sultan. Not a single film has disappointed at the box office. In fact, business has grown over the years with the last two Eid releases giving the industry two major 300 crore plus grossers.

Lifetime records aside, it’s the opening day collection of Salman Khan films during Eid that has managed to shock and surprise the trade on several occasions.

Check out some of those records; the opening day collections of Dabangg, Bodyguard, Ek Tha Tiger and then Sultan were the best of the lot. Unsurprisingly, all these films released on the Post-Eid holiday, except Sultan which was a partial holiday release.

MovieScreensOpening
Day
Year-on-Year
Growth %
Wanted (2009)14005.2 cr
Dabangg (2010)190015.1 cr*+ 190%
Bodyguard (2011)280021.4 cr*+ 42%
Ek Tha Tiger (2012)340032.9 cr*+ 54%
Chennai Express (2013)360033.1 cr*+ 0%
Kick (2014)400026.5 cr- 20%
Bajrangi Bhaijaan
(2015)
410027.25 cr+ 3%
Sultan (2016)440036.54 cr*+ 34%

This year, Salman reunites with Kabir Khan, a director who has given him two of his biggest blockbusters – Ek Tha Tiger and Bajrangi Bhaijaan. Their third film together also tries to cash-in on ‘human emotions’, which worked big time in their last film together.

Box office Factors that are in favour of the film:

  • Eid release; the audience now save money to watch Salman films during Eid.
  • Human emotions; if emotions click, the film can work big and possibly even challenge the collections of some of the biggest grossers like Bajrangi Bhaijaan, PK and Dangal.
  • Kabir Khan and Salman Khan reunite after two successful outings, their films together have always worked big.
  • Two open weeks;the film is releasing towards the end of Ramzan, the holiday for Eid will be on Monday. This gives the film a chance to take a solid start during the weekend, with business eventually hitting the top gear on Monday and Tuesday – if the content of the film finds acceptance. This could well turn out to be a negative if the film doesn’t find acceptance.

Factors that are against the film:

  • The big hype of an event film is missing and there are several reasons for this (which we have already discussed in several articles and QnAs).
  • Tubelight lacks a popular female star and other commercial factors that ensure a ‘bumper opening’ (larger-than-life hero, massy action, romance etc). In this aspect, the film is a lot like Aamir Khan’s Dangal which released during Christmas last year.
  • The response to the teaser, trailer and songs is fair, but cannot be compared to the incredible response that other Eid releases in recent times have received.

IndicineFBO: We expect ‘Tubelight’ to collect Rs 27 crore on its opening day at the box office.

Detailed Prediction (can be a bit of hit-and-miss, but sums up the expectations):

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 28 cr
  • Day 2 – 32 cr
  • Day 3 – 35 cr
  • First Week – 190 cr
  • Final – 325 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 27 cr
  • Day 2 – 29 cr
  • Day 3 – 31 cr
  • First Week – 165 cr
  • Final – 250 cr (Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 27 cr
  • Day 2 28 cr
  • Day 3 29 cr
  • First Week 140 cr
  • Lifetime 175 cr (Below Average / Flop)
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64 Comments

  • ALL the best Tubelight. Cant comment more. Just booked my ticket and waiting to watch TOMORROW.

  • No matter what some self proclaimed critics r saying
    I m gonna watch #Tubelight tomorrow b/c its a reunion of two biggest superstars of our era.
    SRK meets Salman
    Thats sounds so awesome.
    I dnt think ppl really care about critics
    So get ready for it.
    I m a huge SRK #Fan
    N i m exited.
    Some times we degrade others but dat doesn’t change anything.
    #Peace
    #Cheers

  • 200 cr will be tough for Dimlight to achieve.
    I think tubelight will be the first flop of Salman in this decade !!!!
    flop flop flop !!!

  • ur opening prediction for tubelight is 27 cr and for JHMS is 20 cr ….
    we will see after the JHMS release !!!
    BTW, if Tubelight doesn’t cross 200 cr in hindi market , then don’t give any excuse for the so called megastar !!!!!!!

  • tubelight will turn out to be a massive disappointment at B.O !!!
    even Eid won’t save this crap.
    bound to sink !!!!
    tubelight will fail to meet trade,indicine and especially Salman fans expectations.
    a big flop on the way !!!!

  • Even if the word of mouth is bad it will still cross 3 billion dollars worldwide and beat avatar record because this movie has biggest megastar of the world salman khan who is always known for breaking and making records. :D :D :D

  • Then how Salman has became biggest Pan-India superstar for you when you compared Dangal opening with Sultan. Yaa I can agree with pre-eid concept but its a Salman & Kabir khan reunion after BB which is fresh in public memory as released just 2 yrs ago. Sultan was a massy film where hero is doing all the action unlike Dangal. That film collected 29cr+ on normal working day, So if Salman is bigger than the film than why Dangal is looking out of reach.
    So stop giving your over the top bullshit to please a certain fan base. Pehle tumhara paplu Dangal ne kiya and ab Tube light karegi. I am expecting the same figure which you predicting but I still think actual could be less not more.
    Anyways Best of luck team tube light and I wish tubelight sedate opening give some lesson to bhaitards.

  • Megastar salman is record maker so mark my words tubelight will thrash baahubali 2 in just 2 days and cross 2000 cr net in India even in worst case. My open challange.

  • @Riju Basu, correction. Two of the biggest superstars of the era. Not two biggest. Because the biggest superstar of our era is aamir khan followed by salman and then srk. So it doesn’t matter what you think.

  • opening below 25…i think 23-24

    Lifetime under250…get ready to be thrashed salman fans if my pdction comes ryte!

  • @Indicine You saod you’ve corrected some inflations then why Ce first day is still ahead of ETT even though you too have said on a article that Ce did not do more than Ett on first day!You also said Kaabil.will be a hit in 80 crs but now you have given it a abo avg verdict.Girgit ki tarah rang badalte ho and btw how does 175 cr could be a flop for this film which is not a large scale movie?

  • @Indicine, you seem to be way off again with your first day prediction.
    Tubelight simply cannot match Bajrangi Bhaijaan First day collection as that looked out and out commercial movie, and had great WOM over the day.
    The ‘Salmaniac’ interest seems to be missing for Tubelight and 18-19 cr. looks to be more realistic first day prediction assuming it will have fair WOM.

  • Interms of Opening this year
    Bahubaal 2
    Tzh
    G4
    TEPK
    Raees
    Fuselight.

    Be ready next year 2018
    Opening day
    2.0 / TOH
    TOH /2.0
    Top 2 untouchable out of reach The rest

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