Jab Tak Hai Jaan HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

The countdown has begun. 4 days to go, for arguably the most awaited release so far this year. Shahrukh Khan’s Jab Tak Hai Jaan directed by the legendary Yash Chopra, who passed away days before the film opened in theatres, is all set to release worldwide.

In India, Jab Tak Hai Jaan (JTHJ) is releasing on 2700 screens (could be more), while overseas it’s opening on a record 600-650 screens.

While the film is likely to break opening records in the overseas markets, where Shahrukh Khan commands a huge fan following, it’s the domestic business that is generating immense curiosity all over the internet.

Almost every SRK film in recent times has fared well abroad, but back home in India, Shahrukh’s highest grosser (Ra One) is ranked 8th in the highest grossers list.

So, the excitement is high. Can Jab Tak Hai Jaan go on to be SRK’s biggest grosser? Can it beat Ek Tha Tiger as the highest grossing film of 2012? And finally, the record that every major film has been chasing since 2009, the magical figure of 202 currently held by 3 Idiots..

Without further adieu, below are the HIT or FLOP Box office predictions for Jab Tak Hai Jaan

Note: The opening day records are unlikely to be surpassed as the film releases on Diwali. Much like Ra One (around 17-18 cr incl all versions) last year, JTHJ will open well, but the evening/night shows are likely to be affected due to Diwali puja across India. We expect the first day collections to be around 14-16 crores, also keeping in mind the competition from Son Of Sardaar.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Weekend (3 day) – 50 crores
• Extended Weekend (Tue-Sun) – 95 crores
• Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 30 crores
• Week 1 (10 days) –  125 crores
• Final – 180 crores+

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Weekend (3 day) – 45 crores
• Extended Weekend (Tue-Sun) – 85 crores
• Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 25 crores
• Week 1 (10 days) –  110 crores
• Final – 150 crores

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Weekend (3 day) – 42 crores
• Extended Weekend (Tue-Sun) – 72 crores
• Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 18 crores
• Week 1 (10 days) –  90 crores
• Final – 110 crores

Overall, after the initial hype subsides, it all boils down to the content. If the film is good and has repeat value, it should easily cross 150 crores.

Realistically, even though the response to the advance booking has been excellent, we don’t think Jab Tak Hai Jaan will be record breaking in it’s initial weekend. There are 3 reasons; one, competition from Son Of Sardar; two, fewer shows due to 3 hour runtime; three, fewer screens compared to Ek Tha Tiger (which currently holds all the opening day, weekend records).

Having said that, it has every chance to be a major grosser in the long run, if it clicks with the family audience.

So, what are your box office predictions for Jab Tak Hai Jaan? HIT or FLOP? Super Hit or Blockbuster? Disaster or All Time Blockbuster?

Tell us what you think in the comments section below.