Chennai Express HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Eid celebrations are around the corner once again, and this time around its Salman Khan’s arch-rival Shahrukh Khan with his first movie release since Yash Chopra’s Jab Tak Hai Jaan. The Eid / Independence Day period is considered to be the most lucrative period for Bollywood and with good reason – Dabangg, Bodyguard and Ek Tha Tiger have all been record breaking money-spinners at the box-office. A quick look at the opening day figures of each film reveals that business has grown by more than 45% every year.

  • 2010: Dabangg (1800 screens) – 14.5 crore
  • 2011: Bodyguard (2250 screens) – 21 crore (45% growth)
  • 2012: Ek Tha Tiger (3300 screens) – 32.9 crore (56% growth)

Chennai Express
This year, Chennai Express will be releasing on 3500-3600 screens across India, which is double the release size of Dabangg and approximately 10% more than Ek Tha Tiger. So, with one of India’s most bankable superstars Shahrukh Khan, top leading lady Deepika Padukone and the king of the 100 crore club Rohit Shetty – expectations are high that Chennai Express will get close or better the opening day record of Ek Tha Tiger.

However, we believe, the first day record will continue to stay with Ek Tha Tiger. The reason being, Chennai Express will have one of the widest ‘preview’ releases ever, as most multiplexes will be screening the film from 6PM on Thursday (8th August). The average number of shows at multiplexes is around 6 shows, with a few theatres running as many as 11-12 shows between 6-11:30PM (see below).

Chennai Express Advance Booking

Collections for the preview shows should easily be in excess of 5 crore and could go as high as 10 crore if the general public is aware that Chennai Express is partially releasing on Thursday. Such a wide release would also significantly reduce its chances of breaking the opening day record.

Here you go then, the final box office predictions of Chennai Express.

Preview shows – 6 crore

NOTE: All figures below, excluding the first day, include collections from preview shows.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • First day – 27 crore
  • Weekend (3 day) – 75 crores
  • Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 45 crores
  • Week 1 –  120 crores
  • Final – 190 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • First Day – 25 crore
  • Weekend (3 day) – 70 crores
  • Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 40 crores
  • Week 1 –  110 crores
  • Final – 150 crore+ (HIT / Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • First Day – 23 crore
  • Weekend (3 day) – 64 crores
  • Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 29 crores
  • Week 1 –  93 crores
  • Final – < 110 crores (Average)

A few other points

  • Even in the worst case scenario, Chennai Express is unlikely to ‘Flop’ at the box office. Shahrukh Khan’s most-hated film in recent times, Ra One, did business in excess of 100 crores.
  • Like with every major release, the most frequently asked question is ‘Can Chennai Express break the 3 Idiots record if the word-of-mouth is good’. Well, the month of August is cramped with 3 major releases and Akshay Kumar’s Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai Dobaara releases barely 6 days after Chennai Express. A lot would depend on how well OUATIMD is received by the audience. If the Balaji production is liked, it significantly reduces the chances of Chennai Express to score big in the long run.
  • Since CE has 2 holidays in its first weekend, it is likely to record the highest collections for the first weekend (including preview shows). Dabangg 2 currently holds the record with 65 crores in 3 days.
  • It will be interesting to see how Chennai Express fares on Saturday, as most films that are ‘accepted’ by the audience tend to sustain well. Drops in the range of 30-40% would be excellent for a working day. Last year, Ek Tha Tiger dropped by 55% after a record-breaking holiday.
  • Business in the south will be affected by Vijay’s Tamil release Thalaivaa, which also hits screens on 9th August.
  • The runtime of Chennai Express (2 hours 22 minutes) wouldn’t be a problem. Films with runtimes in excess of 2 and a half hours make it difficult for exhibitors to run 5 shows per screen.

Please feel free to ask any Chennai Express box office related questions in the comments section below. Also, do post your own predictions!



  • Nothing can go byond 3 Idiots.. itz a milestone..! The collections.. The target.. The cast.. The entire film.. #unbreakable

  • @Raina is absolutely correct, all of a sudden Indicine authors are trying to create defence for CE, talking of previews, competition etc.,

  • Chennai Express will be another successful film is SRK’s kitty. But I don’t think it will reach 190 cr or be the astronomical success of the year. Everything depends on the film’s content and audience response. CE will likely make more than any SRK release in last few years. It should be in range of 150-175 cr.
    Lesser or greater than this don’t seem possible.

  • Here i m so surprise by seeing fans are fighting as the predicting collection is the actual collection remember for big films bo collection will always higher than predicted for example- ett collected 31.25 cr when predicted 25-28cr, yjhd predicted 15 cr but actual were 19.5 cr, my prediction is that ce will be around 31-32 cr it may cross ett opening day or will loose by a small margin but opening day collection does’t determine the success of any movie so its not big deal for me, remember agneepath broke the record of bodyguard but its lifetime collection below than bodyguard lifetime while agneepath get positive wom and bodyguard got -ve. For me if ce collect any thing more than 160 cr, it will satisfying and i will count thats its meet the collection which desired

  • The king khan will rock. Boxoffice pridiction of chennai express
    paid priview 5cr
    1st day 35cr
    2nd day 25cr
    3rd day 30cr
    weekned 95cr plus
    180cr min if wom is average. 150cr if wom is bad.
    240cr max if wom is excellent like all srk films expect ra1 and jthj.
    oversease 85cr, 14.5$ mm, without any reason for the ultimate king of oversease, mark my words.

  • EXCLUSIVE :- Advance Booking Reports of Chennai Express :-
    Chennai Express Advance Booking REPORTS from different parts of Country.
    1) Mumbai – Mumbai has seen Good response with Paid Previews shows has booked 60% already. First day has seen some shows sold out and some with 40% bookings. but Mumbai has Huge Number of Shows Compared to other parts.
    2) Delhi – Liberty Cinemas, one of the biggest and highest selling single screens cinemas in India hasseen Bumper response for Chennai Express. First day is almost 95% full for all 5 shows and 80% full over the weekend. In other multiplexes also response ishuge for CE in Delhi Circuit.
    3) Hyderabad – This is One circuit which has seen unbelievable bookings. All Multiplexes opened bookingstoday and all 30 shows has sold out with in minutes for Paid Previews on 8th August.Weekend bookings are not started yet.
    4) Bangalore – Bangalore has seen bumper response as well, with Many Multiplexes shows has been sold out and single screens are equally huge.
    5) Punjab – This is the only circuit which has seen average response for Bookings But they started bookings today only. So it may pick up by tomorrow evening.
    6) Gujarat – Bookings here are very strong, a multiplex in Ahemadabad which has 23 shows on Friday is almost Full. Other areas also bookings are very strong.
    7) Kolkata – Kolkata doesnt have booking formality much,but SRK has Huge Fan Base their, bookings were very good. Its gonna take historic opening in this circuit.
    So still 2 days to go for official release but bookings suggest that film is sure to take one of the biggest openings ever. Wait and Watch this game.
    Chennai Express is going to release on 9th August. Paid Previews starts on 8th August from 6 PM.

  • The king khan will rock. Boxoffice pridiction of chennai express
    paid priview 5cr
    1st day 35cr
    2nd day 25cr
    3rd day 30cr
    weekned 95cr plus
    180cr min if wom is average. 150cr if wom is bad.
    240cr max if wom is excellent like all srk films expect ra1 and jthj.
    oversease 88cr, 14.6$ mm, without any reason for the ultimate king of oversease, mark my words.

  • It wil b an atbb in sha Allah..
    First day day azz dere r paid previews might b 30 crores else 35 crores waz not a big deal…
    First weekend wil b around 80+ crores In Sha Allah
    First week wil b 122+ crores in Sha Allah
    Considering outimd release n d normal drop it wil b 60 to 70 percent down so on an average 65 % of itzz first week collection which accounts for 43 + crores…
    Third week wil 13 + crores in Sha Allah
    N d remaining weeks 5-6 crores in Sha Allah which accounts for a total of 190 + crores considering wom good if great it wil break 3 idiots record n dat too by a distance anuything above 215 crores
    I really dont wanna talk abt mixed or bad wom… Fingers crossed
    Shahrukh u rock… Hope finally dis time u hav a bb or an atbb in ur kitty in Sha Allah….

  • Indicine article headline – CE HIT or FLOP.

    So, Indicine expect it to be just a Hit or a complete flop, not a ATBB, BB or even Super Hit? lol.

    The article itself only gives three options of BB, Hit/Superhit or Average.

    Did Indicine see something already coming?

  • Now, there is this new trend to movies called “PAID PREVIEWS”

    This is just another PR gimmick, as recently we have seen many people tweeting after such previews how the movie is mind blowing and all, which is only to create the first positive vibe or a buffer before the critics review it.

    This Paid Previews, as the name suggests, is completely different than the private screening that were and still are done by sincere people for friends and family.

    No wonder tomorrow we will see many tweets by some wannabe celebs saying how awesome and entertaining the movie was.

  • My prediction
    paid prew-5cr
    1st weekend-70-72cr
    70cr 40cr=110cr total of 1st week
    lifetime will be 140-150cr

  • The advance booking report of ce is very bad everywhere ce get only 20% advance booking including paid previews

  • Once upon a time in mumbai will get unnoticed!!! the reason is chennai express gonaa will never give them screens and the audience love SRK than akshay kumar. We all know what happend when chennai express gets launched, they shifted the movie 1 week!! That is the power of king khan. Frankly speaking, battle between Akhay kumar n imran khan doesnt sound well with the audience…Imran khan is the worst actor I have seen…this will be the sole reason that this movie will get unnoticed due to the king khan wave!

    I already booked two shows for tomorrow in is releasing on thrusday itself here. 9am show and 3:20pm show. King khan rocks…..

  • @romance express. completely agree with u. couldnt get a ticket for Saturday show in pvr Bangalore neither inox
    and to my surprise even all the theatres in Kerala have a sold out on first 2 days
    its way beyond what ett had

  • @indicine. could u plz tell me how do i know which theatre has a paid preview on Thursday in Bangalore. any link which suggests that plz

  • Hope the mighty khans show what they are capable of ! Srk has to cross 186 of YJHD to make ranbir feel besharam !

  • film is defiantly around 100cr. after such a long time rohit make average film and did a mistake to take this role to srk

  • 140 cr life time if wom good if bad 110 cr as aug 4 weeks 4 big movie release first 6 day is most vital

  • blockbuster film………………….i think this film crosss 200 crore in india…worlwide 150 crore…total 350 crore..break alll record…include 3 idiots record..

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