Box Office Prediction: Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai Dobara

Box Office Prediction and Analysis by Joginder Tuteja

Why OUATIMD is so Important

The time has come. ‘Once Upon Ay Time In Mumbaai Dobaara’ is a little over a fortnight away from release and it won’t be wrong to say that the film would make a lot of noise on it’s arrival. In fact if the buzz for the film is just right currently, it is expected to increase manifold in days to come.

As a matter of fact, it has to!

There is a lot riding on the film. Inarguably, it is the biggest film ever to have come out of Ekta Kapoor’s stable. It is one of the biggest that Akshay Kumar has been a part of (and would be releasing in months to come). It is the first ever commercial film for Sonakshi Sinha where she actually is supposed to be doing a lot more than song-n-dance routine. It is also expected to be a game changer for ‘chocolate lover boy’ Imran Khan. And last, but perhaps most importantly, it is a film with which Milan Luthria could be one of the rare filmmakers to strike a hat trick (after ‘Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai’ and ‘The Dirty Picture’).

Chennai Express - OUATIMD - Satyagraha

Chennai Express – OUATIM D – Satyagraha

The Ground Reality

However, and that’s a BIG *however* here, the film is challenged by a number of factors which means it is going to be a battle, a fiercely fought one as a matter of fact, when it releases.

It is surrounded by mega releases from all ends. There is ‘Chennai Express’ before it (on 9th August), ‘Madras Cafe’ a week later (on 23rd August) and then ‘Satyagraha’ a fortnight later (on 30th August). Importance of limited or weak competition can never be discounted, especially when it comes to biggies, and that was seen recently in case of ‘Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani’ which went on to reach a monumental mark, courtesy it’s own inherent strength as well as the fact that there was hardly any worthy challenge to stop it’s enviable fast track ride.

In case of ‘Once Upon Ay Time In Mumbaai Dobara’, it is expected that the content would be strong. After all, director Milan Luthria and writer Rajat Arora are known for their strong work in the background and then in execution. Moreover, with the first in the series being super strong, it would be sacrilege to rope in Akshay Kumar as the central protagonist and bring in anything that is inferior by any means.

What goes in its Favour

What works in favour of the film is a very strong recall value which means audience is expected to just walk into the sequel without much of a problem. Of course there would be comparisons with Ajay Devgn but since he and Akshay have a more or less common fan-base (unlike Shahrukh or Salman who have ‘camps’ amidst fans as well), one doesn’t see much of a bloodbath on these grounds.

On its promo release, there was an initial shock amongst few when the sequel appeared to be a love story instead of an action drama. The makers were quick to feel the audience pulse and the ‘hero v/s villain’ approach was pronto devised, hence infusing a sense of familiarity amongst the audience. All of that has ensured that at least from the content perspective, the film should pull in audience with the final product speaking for itself.

Where it may feel Threatened

Of course this still doesn’t mean that on its arrival, the film would have an absolute clean run for itself. Unless ‘Chennai Express’ turns out to be ‘Ra. One’ or ‘Tees Maar Khan’ (which won’t quite be the case), there would be audience for the Shahrukh Khan starrer in it’s second week as well. This means at least at single screens, OUATIMD would have to grab the best that comes its way. Fortunately for it, ‘Madras Cafe’ which arrives a week later is primarily a multiplex film which means while single screens won’t be impacted, even at multiplexes there would be even distribution of screens.

By the time ‘Satyagraha’ arrives, it would all boil down to the eventual content that OUATIMD boasts of. If it is good to excellent, it would find its place under the sun even with the company of Prakash Jha starrer. If it is anything less, it would make way for the newer releases. However, and to its good fortune, the film would still have an entire fortnight for itself to make some serious moolah which would be fine enough to propel it into the profit zone.


On its release back in 2010, ‘Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai’ had managed a 20 crore opening weekend, 35 crore first week and 60 crore lifetime.

Rest assured, at a bare minimum, the sequel should manage at least 35 crore in its opening weekend, 60 crore in it’s opening week and over 100 crore lifetime. Anything more and that’s a bonus that all involved would be happy to count.

Joginder Tuteja tweets @tutejajoginder

Do post your boxoffice predictions of OUATIM D in the comments section below.



  • If CE comes out as Main hoon naa, OSO or Golmal series or all the best or singham then what will happen everybody knows that. And Akshay ‘s Blue clashed with Rohit’s all the best and result is known to all

  • The songs are not exciting, trailer is ok, story seems to be simple, nothing new or different like OUATIM.

    Not looking great for OUATIMD

  • Gettng 100 crs for OUATIMD IS 2 DIFFCLT

  • 120 crore — my prediction ???

    OuatimD.. Do Great.. *
    osm Trailer.. Superb Songn.. &
    Akshay-sonaksi chemistry

    After “succesful Box-office film”

    film Do really well@t both 2

    1) single screens love sonaksi.
    2. multiplax reaction is some
    “Above Avrage”

    And.. Finallyn.

    ” yasmin — ye tuune kya kiya —
    last Dialouge from Ouatimd.

    ”Don,t Underesstimate the power
    of common men — last dialouge
    cheenai express.

    which 1 do you like most?

    positive for “Cheenai express”

    negative for ” Ouatimd”

    ready steady Go.. !!!!”

  • Most non acceptable think is story…
    People hoped a action drama but its looking romantic drama…
    And the craze is covered by Chennai Express.

  • i fear OUATIMD might kill the business of Chennai Express. somehow i wish the bad phase of srk ends with CE though i know it seems impossible.

  • noting special in this movie song of this is not upto the mark also and this movie dont have any strong buzz but C.E has 100 buzz

  • Let everybody talk, wen special 26 released haters said such a low opening still it went to collect 65/70 crores. Even on oh my god people said the same thing n omg collected 80 crores,in 2011 they said akshay is over n den housefull n rowdy rathore arrived two biggies den lackluster joker wich bombed, den khiladi786 wich too made money n was semi hit. Akshay is been there for 22/23 years. Still on top. I ll write again after ouatimd will release n i m gonna watch it on 15th aug, no matter what, good bad…. any one say anything, Luv u akki n thanks for ur films…….

  • @Joginder Tuteja: “”Unless ‘Chennai Express’ turns out to be ‘Ra. One’ or ‘Tees Maar Khan’ (which won’t quite be the case)”” I dont understand what u mean with this sentence. Ur putting Ra one and Tees mar khan in same category!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?
    Agreed that Ra one didnt live up to its humongous expectation but how can u put Ra one in the group of Most idiotic film ever Tees Maar Khan?. Ra one is an average film but its expectaion was sky high therefore audience and even Die hard SRK fans felt hugely disapointed. U can say Ra one as most disappointing film ever but no body can compare it with Tees maar khan which is the most crappiest film released in bollywood. I have only 1 request to u sir, pls dont downgrade Ra one to such extent bcuz there is some thrilling moments plus it’s a descent 1 time watch with disappointing climax that’s all

  • This is a very balanced article, and the competition is huge, which cannot be ignored.

    You may be a fan and blinded, but the fact is fact there is huge competition from CE and for CE.

    because if CE is going down after Sunday, then OUATIMD stand a big big chance to gain.

    But, the best way to approach this is to have belief in ourselves and the work we did, and not depend on the strength and weakness of our competitors.

    I hope the team of OUATIMD is not overwhelmed by the competition and stands it ground. If you are good the audience will come, no matter what.

    All the best to OUATIMD.

  • @indicine: why this discremenation? When you say ce would collect 32 cr+ whilw outimd would only 35cr that too in first three days,,there is dout if the person who predicting the amount is in favour of srk or he doesn’t have sense.
    As we all know outimd has hollyday on its opening day likely to open 20 cr plus range and there is surity of business to be picked up in good range.
    Then how could a weeken end in just 35 cr. if business has to come out it would comeout in first weekend and first week,
    If we take himmatwala’s comparasion we can speculate that the business would more than that of himmatwal even though there is strong competetion from ce.
    Though We know ce would it into outmd’s business but we have something in outmd’s favoure that would assure to come up weekend business with least collections of 55-60 cr. If the case is worse.
    And rest would be depending on content and wom.
    Since the movie has strong background in it’s favoure we can’t expect business of the movie in 35cr range.
    So whoever is the predictor(i’ve read riter’s name but, do not wan’t to comment abt him as most of people know his sense of analysis and biase behaviour or we may cal it as his intelligence) is neglectinh above fact.
    I’ve compared himmatwala here b’cause, it has no hollyday release but had no competion but, had worse report in it’s favour still managed to earn 35cr plus in it’s first weekend…and we more sure about outmd that the movie would come up with good content and put more crores in it’s business as it’s story is not adobted from 1980 decade but from recent and it is not a very old movies remake but of recent and whose memories snd dialoges are still has something that would make people to go to watch it and rest would be taken care by it’s maker by promotional and other stratagies to have movie good accupancy……!!!!

  • 2 out of 10 people believe
    that OUATIMD will collect
    more than Chennai
    Express. The other 8 are
    not drunk yet.ha ha ha

  • 35 crore weekend is a has 4 day extended weekend which itself would be above 60 crores..lifetime will surely cross 125 crores

  • it will nt bt if it gross 100 cr den it wud take tym lyk bol bachan to reach dat club 2 weeks or even 3

  • WHosoever saying Aabout CE…
    We all know how the trailer of CE is ..All songs are crap.. OUTIMD on the other hand has good trailer.. and good songs too..
    Just wait and you will see CE will collect all its money in 5 days bcz after that OUTIMD will rule..

  • please dont compare ouatim with ouatimD…..first one is a classic…ryt from songs to performances…second is medicore worst sequel beating dabangg-2….

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