Box office Analysis by Joginder Tuteja

Umrao Jaan – Disaster
Don – Hit
Janemaan – Average
Lage Raho Munnabhai – Blocbuster

Box Office Analysis
Exclusive by Joginder Tuteja, IndiaGlitz [Friday, November 10, 2006]

First weekend performance of latest release

Poor hype, zero buzz and below average promotion through satellite medium were three big reasons that led to the downfall of ‘Umrao Jaan’ from the very first show of its release. In spite of an additional grace period coming as a blessing in disguise after the film’s release was being pushed from Diwali to now, ‘Umrao Jaan’ couldn’t capitalize at all on it and as the days progressed, the interest level for the film only went down instead of going the other way round. Abhi-Ash marriage news/rumor only worked negatively rather than positively for the film as even a layman on the street understood it as a planted news item. Now whether it was the done by people who were pro or against the film would be only known to the… … makers of the film but the fact is that the film has failed to take off, let alone give a fight at the box office.

The opening weekend has been poor with no signs of survival even in the long run. The worst part to have hit the movie has been an indifferent attitude to it by both media and the common man. While in Don v/s Jaaneman clash, the former only gained due to widespread interest by both media and public to find if the film is good or bad [there were hour long capsules being run all over the channels to debate on the film], in case of ‘Umrao Jaan’ there has been absolutely no news on how good or bad people have found the final product. Poor promotion on satellite medium, which only focused on songs and dances and didn’t pay any attention to the talkie promos, only added to the lack of awareness for the film.

Last week’s movies

With no breathing space between ‘Don’, ‘Jaan-E-Mann’ and ‘Umrao Jaan’, no new films hit the marquee last week.

From the past

‘Don’ is a HIT and is en route to bigger success in coming weeks. Period. The film did quite well in second week too, in spite of the fact that ‘Jaan-E-Mann’ didn’t fare badly at all, but more about that later. With around 40% fall, which is less than 50% industry standard fall and quite a feat when one looks at the first week’s collections of a biggie, the film earned a commendable 13+ crores total to cross the 38 crore mark in 2 weeks flat. The film ironically showed its biggest fall in Mumbai where it slid down to 2 crores whereas held on amazingly well in Delhi at 1.5 crores where it was at an average 1.75 crore in the first week.

A point to be noted is that while the total of ‘Lage Raho Munnabhai’ stood at 36 crores in 2 weeks, ‘Don’ has achieved this feat and much more (38 crores) in the similar time frame. Nevertheless, Munnabhai went on to weave its magic consistently with a 20-30% fall over the weeks, which is something that is not expected from ‘Don’, especially with ‘Dhoom 2’ coming in a few weeks. All said and done, ‘Don’ would be yet another 50 crore hit coming from Bollywood in what could be termed as the best every money spinning year for the industry.

There was an outside chance of ‘Jaan-E-Mann’ just about managing to stay afloat amidst the ‘Don’ storm and the well made film has thankfully managed to just about do that. Though the collections were still not of the kind that would have been expected by the makers of the film prior to its release, a 7.5 crore second week did seem decent after a first week drubbing. There was a 50% fall which is not bad, especially when there didn’t seem to be much hopes at the end of week 1. At 22 crore +, the film is still battling to survive but with ‘Umrao Jaan’ showing signs of fading away, it may manage to reach safety mark to be coverage at least. The film had around 1.25 crore coming from Mumbai but Delhi was low again with only 70 lakhs in collections. At a high price the film has been sold for, the film would find it tough to fetch money back for its distributors, especially in the bigger territories.

In what could probably be their last notable week in the running, the combined collections of ‘Dor’, ‘Woh Lamhe’, ‘Khosla Ka Ghosla’ and ‘Pyaar Ke Side Effects’ were in the tune of 30 lakhs, which tells the tale. Meanwhile ‘Lage Raho Munnabhai’ didn’t budge from the Top-3 position since its arrival and added an amazing 90 lakhs in it’s 9th week with a mere 10% fall. At a total nearing 69 crores, the film is set to cross 70 crores!

In the future

Three distinct films release this Friday. While the biggest of all is Rajshri Films’ ‘Vivah’, the one that would give it a fight at the box office is Subhash Ghai’s ‘Apna Sapna Money Money’. Till about a week back ‘Vivah’ seemed like an under promoted product by the Barjatyas but the pace has picked up commendably for the film to be in news all over. Still a 50-60% start is what seems probable for the film at this moment and if this Shahid Kapoor-Amrita Rao starrer film indeed has the inimitable Sooraj Barjatya stamp then the film may just about surprise at the box office. On the other hand ‘Apna Sapna Money Money’ seems a safe product and though the start many again be in the range of 50-60%, for a film of this size and credentials [newcomers forming an entire lead starcast], it may just about sail through if the film is outrageously hilarious, as indicated in the promos. Third release of the film is ‘Deadline – Sirf 24 Ghante’ but a haphazard release announcement, poor promotion and zero buzz for the film doesn’t really promise much for this delayed film.

Source:- IndiaGlitz


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