Boss HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Akshay Kumar’s third and final release of 2013, BOSS, is finally set to hit theatres tomorrow. Its been a mixed year for the superstar, as his first film Special 26 did well at the box office, but his most-awaited film in recent times Once Upon Ay Time In Mumbaai Dobaara was rejected by the audience.

Much like Besharam a couple of week ago, Boss releases on Wednesday giving it a extended 5 day weekend. Apart from the weekly holiday on Sunday, Boss hits theatres on a national holiday for Id-ul-Zuha. The film is also likely to benefit from two restricted holidays for Maharishi Valmiki Jayanti (Friday, 18th October) and Karva Chouth (Tuesday, 22nd October).

Extended weekends can be extremely dangerous if the initial response to a film is negative. With the reach of social media now extending to even the smaller towns of India, word spreads quicker than ever before. Negative word-of-mouth can have a massive impact on multiplex business, where more than 75% of business is generated even for massy action films like Boss.

So for Boss to take advantage of all the holidays it has in its first week, its imperative that the film is liked. Otherwise, things can go wrong pretty quickly.

Coming to the positive side of things, the makers of the film along with Akshay Kumar have promoted the film well. Music has topped charts and the overall response to the trailer and song promos has been quite positive all along.

Made on a budget of Rs 50 crore (cost of production), Boss releases on 3600 screens worldwide, out of which it gets around 3200 screens in India. Its a wide enough release for a film to collect 25 crore+ on a national holiday.

Realistically though, we expect Boss to collect around 16-18 crore on its opening day and then depending on how the film is received, it could either go from strength-to-strength taking full advantage of the holiday or go down-hill Thursday onwards. However, Boss is unlikely to crash like Besharam did even if the response is outright negative, as single-screens tend to sustain better in the first few days.

Below is our box office prediction of Boss.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• First day – 18 crore
• Weekend (3 day) – 37 crores
• Extended Weekend (5 day) – 66 crore
• Week 1 (9 day) –  85 crores
• Final – 140 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• First Day – 17 crore
• Weekend (3 day) – 33 crores
• Extended Weekend (5 day) – 54 crore
• Week 1 (9 day) –  70 crores
• Final – 100 crore+ (Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• First Day – 16 crore
• Weekend (3 day) – 27 crores
• Extended Weekend (5 day) – 40 crore
• Week 1 (9 day) – 50 crores
• Lifetime Collections – 55 crores (Average)

Overall, Boss should go on to be Akshay Kumar’s biggest grosser of 2013 and finally break the ’60 crore’ jinx; his last 3 releases (Khiladi 786, Special 26 and OUATIMD) have all collected between 60-70 crore. The costs are lower compared to most big release, so the film is a ‘success’ if it makes to collect around 55 crore.

If it finds appreciation like Rowdy Rathore did, then Boss could well be Akshay’s biggest career grosser. The success or failure of the film will make a huge difference for his next release ‘Thuppakki remake’ which is directed by A.R Murugadoss, as there are reports that the film has shaped up really well.

What do you think, Boss HIT or FLOP? Tell us in the comments section below.