Besharam HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Ranbir Kapoor’s second film this year after the super-success of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani is all set to hit screens tomorrow. Even though the response to the promos of Besharam isn’t as positive as his last three films, expectations of a good film are high.

Here’s why:

• Besharam is directed by Abhinav Kashyap, who last directed Salman Khan in Dabangg. Kashyap was not only credited for the story and the screenplay of Dabangg, but also for the much-loved dialogues in the film. He is also the man behind the immensely popular character of Chulbul Pandey. It’ll be interesting to see what Kashyap has in store for the audience in his second outing as director.
• The second and probably the biggest reason why the film is expected to open well is Ranbir Kapoor. Besharam is his 10th film after a disastrous debut in Saawariya, and he has hardly ever put a step wrong since then. His success ratio is high, critics love him and his script-sense is terrific. Also, it’ll be the first time when the audience get to see Ranbir share screen-space with his parents Rishi and Neetu Kapoor.

Quick look at the box office collections of his last 3 films

• Rockstar (Hit) – 68 crore
• Barfi (Super hit) – 106 crore
• Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani (Blockbuster) – 188 crore

Now, coming to the box office predictions, Besharam will benefit from a extended 5-day weekend as it releases on Wednesday, a National holiday for Gandhi Jayanti. With approximately 3500 – 3550 screens, it’ll be the widest release for a Ranbir Kapoor film ever. About 15-20% higher than his last release Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani, which collected Rs 19.5 crore on its opening day (non-holiday) at the box office.

However, the response to both the trailer and music of YJHD was better than Besharam.

We expect the opening day collections to be around 26 crore net. Business will drop on Thursday and Friday, both working days. Saturday and Sunday collections will then depend on the response that the film gets.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• First day – 26 crore
• Weekend (3 day) – 55 crores
• Extended Weekend (5 day) – 93 crore
• Week 1 (9 day) –  125 crores
• Final – 170 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• First Day – 25 crore
• Weekend (3 day) – 50 crores
• Extended Weekend (5 day) – 82 crore
• Week 1 (9 day) –  110 crores
• Final – 135 crore (Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• First Day – 24 crore
• Weekend (3 day) – 45 crores
• Extended Weekend (5 day) – 70 crore
• Week 1 (9 day) – 90 crores
• Lifetime Collections – 105 crores (Average)

Unless the response is as bad as disasters like Himmatwala and Zanjeer, Besharam should easily cross the 100 crore mark. The film is unlikely to be a flop for Ranbir Kapoor even in the worst case scenario. He has a huge fan-base in the Urban centres, which has now extended to smaller centres like UP and Bihar with Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani. Having said that, he isn’t quite in the same league as Salman or Shahrukh Khan in the B and C centres of India.

What’s your box office prediction for Besharam? Will the film be a HIT or Flop? Tell us in the comments section below.