Baby Business Economics: Collections needed for box office hit!

Apart from Aamir Khan’s PK, all other movie releases in December and January have failed at the box office. Arjun Kapoor’s Tevar looked promising, especially at mass centres, but the film sank without a trace.

All eyes are now on the biggest release of the month, Baby starring Akshay Kumar in the lead. The film generated huge buzz when the trailer released in the first week of December. It was touted as one of Akshay’s best trailers in recent times and since the Akki-Neeraj Pandey combination has already delivered great content (Special 26) in the past, expectations of a commercially successful film are high.

The industry is also slowly coming to the realise that only good content can bring audience to theatres at multiplexes in big cities.

Akshay Kumar at Baby trailer launch

Akshay Kumar

So how much does Baby need to collect at the domestic (India) box office to emerge a clean hit? Based on information gathered from reliable trade sources, below is our analysis on the business economics of Akshay Kumar’s Baby.

Note: All figures are estimates.

Baby Costs Breakdown

  • Cost of production (COP) – Rs 58 crores
  • Cost of marketing the film – Rs 15 crores
  • Total Costs – Rs 73 crores

Recovery from various rights

  • Satellite Rights – Rs 25 crore (Akshay films usually fetch a good price as far as satellite rights are concerned. The makers are confident of the content too and are hoping that the box office success of the film will fetch them a better Satellite deal).
  • Overseas share should be around Rs 10 crore or more, depending on how well the film is received.
  • Music rights – Nil (rights with T-Series).
  • Total Recovery – Rs 35 crore

Total costs to recover from theatrical business – Rs 38 crore, which means the film has to collect around Rs 75 – 80 crore to break-even.

Based on the costs to be recovered, below is a general overview for the film to earn HIT or better status.

  • If Baby collections more than 90-95 crore – Hit
  • If Baby collections more than 125 crore – Super Hit
  • If Baby collections more than 160 crore – Blockbuster

If the film does well in theatres, the producers may get a higher price from Satellite rights, thus generating additional revenue from other sources. Also, good content-driven films tend to perform well in the overseas markets too.

Economics-wise, Baby seems to be a safe bet at the box office as long as the content lives upto expectations. The buzz has died down a little in the last few weeks, probably because the makers released the theatrical trailer a little too early. But the film has an excellent release period (Monday is a holiday for Republic Day) and a 9 crore+ opening day would set it up quite nicely for an extended weekend.

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89 Comments

  • Neeraj is a fearless director. Here he is openly talking about terrorism. This film is going to spark another controversy after PK. No doubt that the content will be super-good, but the chances of Baby becoming a huge hit are quite high because these days people get offended by anything and when controversy sparks out of no where, there is a sudden rise in foot-falls. That might work for Baby!

    • True, we saw that in case of Haider, too! Controversy > over hype for a film’s business. Sajid Khan should take notes.

    • completely agree with u.baby has the potential to show excellent trending and bcm a superhit despite avg opening.anyways akki is used to avg opening as expect rowdy and multi starrer franchise film hf2 all his films in last 12 films hv opened avg to bad but still some of them hv bcm a success bcz of gd content

    • @Sambuddha:You did’nt left an oppurtunity to term HF2 as multistarrer but when we say the succcess of Ek Villain(Riteish),2 states (chetan bhagat) then you cry like hell.

    • Yes also we saw that during jodha akbar time the controversy surrounded the film over hyped it’s business,so all the best akkians for baby i am watching it FDFS.

  • wow……..its looking a safe bet from business pov.
    i think baby will atleast do a business 0f 110 to 115 crs(which is similar to holiday).
    anyways umm expecting it to be akshay’s highest grosser

  • You should do this business economic article for every big release. I think it would be safe to say it will be a Hit at least, hopefully.

  • Only hurdle is disastrous tevar. Audience lost trust in film considering arjun kapoor’s flop work and acting. But don’t fear,while akki is here.
    Baby coming this friday!!!!

  • i think it will do somewhere between 80-100 cr.BTW BABY looks promising,looking forward to it..ALL THE BEST TO TEAM BABY.

  • Film will be confirm super hit…
    Because of neeraj pandey…
    Believe that… Akshay will deliver career best performance…

  • i think it will do somewhere between 80-100cr.BTW Baby looks promising,looking forward to it.ALL THE BEST TO TEAM BABY..

  • Neeraj Pandey is a reliable name now. I expect opening of 45Cr extended weekend and lifetime of 100-110 Cr if content is gud.

  • Lets apply this business economics on Jai Ho…..
    Production cost- 35-40cr(without salman’s fee)
    Marketing cost- 15cr
    Total cost- 50-55cr.

    Pre release recovery:
    Satellite right- 50-55cr(salman’s 500cr deal for 5yrs with star tv).
    Overseas dist share- 15cr.
    Music right- 5-7cr.
    Total recovery- 70-75cr.
    All india dist share- 65cr+.

    Total recovery from all sources- 75cr+65cr= 140cr.
    Total profit: 140cr(income)-55cr(cost)= 85cr.

    Still Jai Ho is a average/semi hit….SO STRANGE.

    • bro
      jai was not looser for the producers but for the third party distributer becuase they fetch the high amount for the film
      just for break even the film should need to collect 170 at tht time but failed

  • Still I feel somewhere 73cr budget may harm the movie,as generally akki movies unable to surpass 70cr,so it’s a quite risk.but as neeraj pandey is there so it’s not so harmful and film will surpass 100easily.

    @Shaheer,well said bro this is the 1st 100cr movie of akshay Kumar with original script.

    • Idiot what was HF2? it was original!! Our king needs 4 months promotions,world tour,tv shows,big holidays just to crawl past 200crs..what a shame! He was unable to surpass Rowdy rathore despite top actresses,yrf,franchise,festive release blah blah..

    • Yes, @Sass khan, our king need big banner, top heroin, 1 year promotion, paglarism controversial story, bash legend, unofficial remake and big holiday period but still can’t cross 200cr. Lol
      Up coming table fan also unofficial remake of kunal kemu’s SUPERSTAR.

    • @sss

      Can’t understand the fuzz about these ‘clubs’ Ek than tiger was just 3 crores behind 3 idiots at around 199 crores. If they had managed to touch 200 what big difference would have happened?

      Though I’m not a big fan of MNIK, I still think it was a good attempt at trying something new, Chennai express which earned 3 and half times of My Name is Khan was yet another Shetty film.

      @Babaji

      Same thing for you. OMG and special 26 are zillion timed better than a regressive Rowdy Rathore. I’d be very happy if Baby or Brothers croses RR’s lifetime collection. Why do you have to be so commercial in your thinking when your own star doesn’t bother about numbers?

    • @SSS if sarookh was in Baby, then forget 70 crores, it would struggle to cross 50 crores. your sarook is still under the depression after the failure of crappy new year. thanks to rohit shetty and deepika his career was saved last year. otherwise he would have been in bigg boss house.

  • Economics of movies my favourite. That’s thing forces me to open Indicine again and again .

    I hope any one of Us must be enter in business of filmmaking in future.

    thanks indicine for new makeover Its difficult for mobile to deal with please help

    • So according to you with top actress, promotions, banner Akshay can cross 200cr….. Lol
      Agar srk promotion kr ra h to shayad apne hi film k liye kr ra h, so what’s wrong???
      And jthj underperformed due to clash also…

  • Anywhere from 103 cr to 125 cr (based upon content). Good luck Akki and his fans.
    From an Aamir and Hrithik fan..

  • Not that risky if the B.O prospects of BABY are talked about,I will be happy if it does anything above 100crs..
    Watching it First Day!!

  • 24th is also saraswati puja. Another holiday. So movie will enjoy 3 day continuous holidays. If word of mouth on 1st day is good. Den huge weekend collection is on d way. Collection will be between 110 to 130 cr . super hit

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