Baby Box Office Predictions: Akshay Kumar’s first release of 2015

Note: These are NOT the official Indicine Predictions for Baby. The below article has been contributed by indicine.com reader – Bobby Sidhu.

Hello everyone, I have been predicting box office collections for films over the years and will now be doing it on Indicine. In 2014, I predicted Aamir Khan’s PK to do 300 crore lifetime collection, HAPPY NEW YEAR to do 200 crore lifetime collection, HOLIDAY-A SOLDIER IS NEVER OFF DUTY to do 115+ crore lifetime collection, Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania to do 70+ crore lifetime collection, just to name a few of my correct box office predictions.

Here’s to a fresh new start on Indicine with my box office predictions for BABY!

BABY is a special film. Special because it is directed by Neeraj Pandey of A WEDNESDAY and SPECIAL 26 fame. Special because the leading actor in the film is Akshay Kumar, one of the top stars of India. Special because the last time this duo worked together, they created SPECIAL 26, a film that many remember fondly today even two years after it released.

Therefore, expectations are bound to be huge from BABY!

Observing the buzz of BABY has been interesting. The film had been trending on social media to the point where Akshay decided that he should give his fans a short little teaser of the film. After that, the theatrical trailer of the film released and was received very well by viewers. The trailer created the necessary impact needed to build buzz for the film.

Akshay Kumar action still from movie Baby

Akshay Kumar action still from movie Baby

But alas! The buzz did not sustain. The film has been promoted at such a low-key level, with hardly any promos of the film even being visible after the theatrical trailer. As a matter of fact, such is the absence of promotions for BABY that many may not even know that the film is releasing this week! Note: everything mentioned in this article is based on the box office business of BABY in India only, not overseas.

Let’s get one thing straight: BABY is not the typical masala film. It is not the typical naach-gaana, masti film filled with hot heroines, loads of comedy, entertainment, and a macho hero sending hundreds of baddies flying with one punch.

What BABY is though, is a serious, issue-based film that seems to be high on one major element: content.

Sure, BABY won’t get any sort of record-breaking opening at the box office (it won’t even be as high as Akshay’s biggest opener ROWDY RATHORE which collected approx. 15 crores on its opening day). But what will work the most for BABY is it’s content. Judging from the positive response the theatrical trailer got and judging from director Neeraj Pandey’s capability to work wonders with the audience, I strongly feel that BABY will receive tremendous appreciation from the audience and will therefore emerge a box office success, although not a Blockbuster or anything of that sort.

BABY will crawl at the box office in the morning shows on Friday, but will start taking its baby steps throughout the day once the positive WOM (Word of Mouth) kicks in to help the film record a better opening day collection than what it may have seemed like after the morning shows. BABY will be targeting the opening day collection of Neeraj-Akshay’s last film SPECIAL 26, as that film also had no popular heroine and held similar appeal. The difference here though is that SPECIAL 26 had competition from another film that released the same day ABCD (which also did quite well at the box office). BABY does have competition from DOLLY KI DOLI, but that film is not likely to dent the box office collections of BABY, and therefore, BABY will likely have a higher opening day collection than SPECIAL 26. Most of the awareness for BABY has come through it’s trending on social media, and therefore the awareness for the film is likely to be more in the bigger cities of India, and hence the opening for the film will be better in the big cities (especially as the film is a multiplex film). The film has that grand scale to it that would make the multiplex audience want to buy their expensive tickets to see the grand scale of the film on screen. Akshay Kumar has a strong fanbase with masses too though (as everyone knows), so the film will get some audience in the smaller centers too, although lack of awareness and lack of typical Bollywood masala in the film could result in the opening not being up to the mark in the smaller centers.

The WOM (Word of Mouth) for the film, as I have already mentioned, will be very strong. Akshay Kumar himself seems confident in the film, and he has said that no one should move during the last 30 minutes of the film. I feel that the WOM for the film will be very strong amongst the multiplex audience. Despite not having the typical Bollywood masala, the single screen audience may be hesitant at first to watch the film, but those that will watch it will enjoy it and the WOM will spread to bring in even more audience to single screens. Akshay Kumar, action, dialogues, and the grand canvas should end up working well with the single screen audience. Also, keeping in mind that there is more of an anti-Pak vibe in India nowadays, any scenes in the film that are anti-Pak will actually be greeted with huge enthusiasm with the Indian public.

Many people will remember BABY as being one of Akshay Kumar’s best performances of his career. The theatrical trailer shows it. His body language, and even just that scene where, without saying a word, he keeps punching another man, show that Akshay Kumar is going to give a special performance in this film. It is too early to talk about awards as awards season for 2014 films is just starting up, but in a year from now when the awards season comes for 2015 films, I am sure that Akshay Kumar’s name will be there in the nominations for the Best Actor category for his performance in BABY.

The film also has supporting actors such as Anupam Kher (who was also in SPECIAL 26), Rana Daggubati, Danny Denzongpa, Kay Kay Menon, and others. Some or all of these actors will contribute to the appreciation that BABY gets with their performances.

The only film in the near future that can dent the box office collections of BABY is SHAMITABH which releases on Feb 6. Therefore, BABY will have two weeks of free run to get most of its box office collections.

My Box Office Predictions for BABY:

  • Opening Day: 8.5 crores net
  • Opening 4-Day Weekend: 45+ crores net
  • Lifetime Collection: 100 crores net
  • Overall Box Office Verdict: Hit

There have been films in the past that had a 8-9 crore opening day and then went to do 100+ crore lifetime collections (BARFI and BHAAG MILKHA BHAAG come to my mind). Both of these films reached the 100 crore mark due to audience appreciation for these films, and I feel the same thing will happen with BABY. It also has the advantage of the big holiday (Republic Day) on Monday, the fourth day of its release, which will further boost collections. Since 2012, all films released during Republic Day period have entered the 100 crore club (AGNEEPATH, RACE 2, JAI HO), and that is another reason why I feel that BABY will have lifetime collections of 100 crore or more.

Article by Indicine.com reader Bobby Sidhu

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85 Comments

  • Hey @Bobby Sidhu.. Nice article, hope you participate in the comments section too. Would be great to read your take on articles and videos..

    I think you are spot on with box office predictions of Baby.. If it carries good word of mouth or is good as Neeraj Pandey’s last film Special 26, then it will collect 100-110 crore.

    Otherwise with mixed response I think this will settle for 80-85 crore. I still think the opening will be a big more than 8.5 cr. Could be 9-10 crore because there have been no good multiplex films after PK. Also since there is some goodwill amongst the audience from Akki-Neeraj last film together, more people might come to watch.

  • Good prediction and analysis.. I think it’ll do 90 cr lifetime. If extra ordinary and has must watch tag then may cross 100.

  • First day will be at lest 10cr. I am sure it will be one of the best movie in every department. God luck akki

  • too much writing ……
    by the way its good prediction weekend will be 45cr is good .
    lifetime I think 85-90cr lifetime near to lifetime of Talaash

  • My predictions for baby……

    1st day- 10-11crore.

    1st weekend(4day)- 50-52crore.

    1st week- 68-70crore.

    Lifetime- 110-115crore.

    Verdict- Hit.

  • Baby is strong film. Akshay not promoting it. See the guts of actor like akshay of low banner babyand see the guts of ranbir who does link-up news of actress of his high banner films. Ranbir will back off if roy flops and will take centre stage if it hit. He knows he has lead role and not small part.So damn opportunist and un-manly attitude. This ones for @ArjunFan
    baby rocks.Akki rules.

  • Nice article… Sure, Baby will hv strong content.. Indeed the movie will appreciated by ppl who will watch it(INDIANS ONLY) 85crs is minimum it shud rack. Anything less than that wud mean hugely disappointing..I am rooting for Baby.. Agneepath’s record will b out of reach, if, 2 weeks total is than 100 crs.Big B’s shamitabh is most likely to be flop or just 3 to 4 big cities hit movie. It looks like only for highly educated & pseudo audience.

  • Forgot to add this.. Akki’s BABY will face sme small hurdles in terms of 1) MSG will rls on 600 screens across India. 2)Capital city of India will turn into high tech security zone for USA Prez visit. Means, heavy traffic jams expected. 3) rajdhani mein election campaign ka full on fever hain.(Delhi is 2nd biggest contributor to Boxoffice collections)..

  • Generally I don’t watch any movie of akki in theatre .last time I watched only 3 of his movies ,2 of them were so good which are housefull2,sp26. Both I enjoyed a lot. But unfortunately due to some of my friend I watched a worst movie rowdy rathore. Now once again I will watch this movie BABY in theatre for neeraj pandey

  • Nice analysis.But still I believe that opening off Baby would be in double figures.But anyhow the movie shouldn’t be judged just on its collection since it could be a cult movie

  • movie will hit for sure…
    I think agneepath will remain highest grosser of January…
    baby will cross 100 cr easily….
    waiting for baby….
    akki love u man…

  • I think BABY will collect about 10crs on day 1. And as he said will crawl to 100crs.
    Great article,enjoyed reading.

    Akki fans have helped a lot to promote baby on twitter and even some good fans of srk,aamir,sallu have shown interest in it.

    A film like entertainment with crap promos opened to 11.50crs which even i and many other people skipped.BABY has that advantage,people know now that Neeraj-Akki will deliver a good film coz they won their hearts last time with Special 26!

  • four day weekend, 3000 screen count, great director, superb script, awesome cast, and still everyone predicted 100-90 crore really, what happened to all of you ? I am sure it will collect more then 140 crore. dont underestimate the power of akshay.

  • Also since BABY is an action thriller might attract more audience than sp.26 did.Sp.26 clashed with india’s first dance film ABCD,which was carrying good buzz.
    Republic day is near,so a feeling of being a ‘patriot’ might bring in some audience.

  • @bobby sidhu your article isgood but your predictions are totally wrong.
    here is my predictions :-
    first day – 13-15 crore
    four day weekend – 65-70 crore
    first week – 90-95 crore
    lifetime 140-150 crore.
    dont forget akshay film HOLIDAY also has low buzz but still collected 12 crore on opening day and without holidays and mixed wom it collected 112 crore. so why not BABY can collect more then this.

    • Holiday had a strong WOM! Also, keep in mind that from all of the films that have released during Republic Day period, Agneepath is the highest grosser at 120 crores….I don’t think Baby will cross the lifetime collection of Agneepath!

  • Nice article… But only 8.5 cr first day is the worst case scenario…. I don’t see why Baby won’t collect more than 10 cr in opening day….

  • The buzz of baby is low.But movie will definitely rock as movie is looking solid.
    I still thing opening will be around 10-11 cr but most important is content should be strong and appreciate by audience.If it happen than baby will rock for sure.

    • i m not a Akshay Kumar fan.
      first day collection: 13.5 Crore
      First weekend collection(4 Days): 58 Crore
      First Week Collection: 82 Crore
      Lifetime Collection: 145 Crore +

  • My prediction for this akki sir film
    1st day- 13 cr
    2nd day – 15 cr
    3rd day- 19 cr
    4th day – 20 cr
    5th day- 7 cr
    6th day- 5 cr
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Life time – 115 cr.

  • I dont think baby will be as good as special 26 or a Wednesday in terms of content. I dont think the content will be extraordinary to cross 100crs. It will be a good watchable movie but due to low key promotion and the box office opening which won’t be too high it should finish with 80crs.

  • Now a days people don’t want to see masala films…. They want content with entertainment…. So baby will do 125cr… Sure…. Shamitabh will collect 80cr….. Waiting to see both films…

  • Baby collections are difficult to predict. This is truly beacuse of Akshay Kumar.

    1) Considering, his last movies his openings are some where between 8- 14 crores. So you can’t expect Baby to go over or below it.

    2) Considering Special 26, the Actor/ Director duo success, good trailer(not extraordinary) & duration of movie which will be less for this film it looks like the film will score 15 crore + opening day and could be the biggest opening day for Akshay Kumar movie…

    Now to put it straightforward, the predictions are:

    Opening Day: 12-18 crore
    Long Weekend: 55-65 crores
    1st Week: 80-90 crores
    Lifetime: 130-140 crores

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