AskIndicine: QnA at 7PM

Q. How much Eid, Diwali, Christmas holidays help movies to score high? E.g. What would be collection of movie which collected 100 crore on normal weekend?

A. Eid and Christmas has now become an habit for the audience. They save up money expecting a big film to release and in the last 7-8 years, the industry hasn’t disappointed them. Eid has become synonymous with Salman Khan entertainers, barring 2013 when Shah Rukh Khan released Chennai Express and it went on to become the highest grosser of all time. Aamir Khan adds tremendous value to the Christmas weekend.

So it’s majorly Salman and Aamir who have been making these two weekends special. Remove them and their universal films and the festive weekend wouldn’t be as strong as it look.  Maybe a film like ‘Raees’ if it had got a solo release during Eid would’ve wrecked havoc at the box office, because the content of the film was tailor made for a big Eid release. The second part of your question cannot be answered because Eid as it it won’t help, the content and stars need to be there too. These two weekends weren’t big for films 10 years ago, Salman and Aamir made them.

Q. Is it possible for Jolly LLB to cross 20 crore on Day 1 box office? Please talk about box office prospects of Jolly LLB 2.

A. Anything is possible at the box office, but a 20 crore figure would be very difficult for a film like ‘Jolly LLB 2’ to achieve. If it does, it would be extraordinary, but we think it should be somewhere in the 15 crore range – which is still excellent, given the costs involved.

Q. Are the makers of Kaabil manipulating the collections because there seems to be a lot of difference in trade and producer figure?

A. A couple of things here. One, the ‘manipulation’ that we talk about, should not be a comparison between figures released from one source in the trade to the official figures released by the producers. ‘Manipulation’ can happen from both sides. Two, it is impossible for any one apart from the producers to track box office collections. For example, how will anyone know how much a film has collected at a single-screen, which sells paper tickets? So every figure that’s put out is an estimate with upto 10% error margin (could be more sometimes). Also, some producers include collections from Nepal in their figures, the trade source might not include. Producers also include collections from Telugu and Tamil version into their figures, some trade sources don’t.

We are very clear about one thing and that is, there needs to be uniformity. The outrage cannot be selective or for just one film. If we question Kaabil, we have to also question Shivaay, Krrish 3, the first day and lifetime of Happy New Year, the collections of a film like Baby and even the smallest of films.

Inflating box office figures is a sign of weakness and desperation to prove yourself to be bigger than you actually are. The biggest of stars don’t need to inflate. Their box office pull is good enough to see them through to the biggest of numbers. More on this some other time in a separate article.

Q. Arrange your best gangster movies in your order of appreciation. Vaastav, Satya, Company, Raees, Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai.

A. Too early to talk about Raees, it has just released in theatres. Appreciation a film carries and how the audience will rate a film will only be known as the film ages i.e a few months from now. Other than that, it would be Vaastav, Satya, Company, Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai. In that order.

Q. It is so sad that a movie like Kaabil not collecting as much as it should be. Your thoughts on Rakesh Roshan allegations on distributors because it is Kaabil who fixed the date first.

A. We have already put across our thoughts in the article which was published yesterday (Read: Kaabil vs Raees: How the clash is affecting business of two good films) Read it if you haven’t already. It’s too late now. The clash has happened, both films are going to collect much lesser than they otherwise would. It’s true that Rakesh Roshan announced his film first, but every producer is free to release his film anytime he wants to.

Q. Who will win the clash? Raees or Kaabil? Your opinion..

A. It’s too early to declare one film as the winner with 100% certainty, but unless Raees completely crashes tomorrow and Kaabil performs strongly until the release of Jolly LLB 2, the gap is just too big for Kaabil to close. But then again, it depends on perception. Raees is the bigger film and has the bigger star too, so if both films finish with 10-20% difference it’ll be debatable like the Jab Tak Hai Jaan vs Son Of Sardaar clash in 2012.

Q. If Kaabil collects 115 crore and Raees collects 135 crore then which of the two will be called a bigger hit? Please answer.

A. Based on costs, Kaabil will be ahead. But the film has a lot of work to do to get to 115 crore, while Raees even if it shows a decent trend can collect much more than 135 crore.

Q. At super success of Dangal and now two big movies, Raees and Kaabil, people have spent their money on these three movies. How many percent impact will be there on Jolly LLB 2 collection?

A. Not possible to put this into numbers, a small impact if Jolly LLB 2 turns out to be a good movie, but big if it doesn’t live upto expectations. It has two open weeks and then there is Rangoon which isn’t tracking at all. So, enough time if the film finds acceptance.

Q. What can be the final BO collections of Raees in India? Can it cross the 175cr mark? Any chances since the first wee business is likely to be around the 125cr mark..?

A. 125 crore in the first extended week (9 days) looks extremely difficult. The first extended weekend (5 days) will be around the 93 crore mark. After that, to get to 125 crore, it has to do 10 crore + on Monday, which looks very difficult both because of the trend and drop in multiplex ticket prices Monday onwards. We are looking at first week business of few crore lesser than 120 crore. Rest would depend on how it performs in Week 2. It’s looking like a Dilwale like finish. But tomorrow is very important for the film.

Q. Why is Raees under-performing in North India and Punjab?

A. It isn’t under-performing. It was better than Kaabil for almost all the days so far. It’s only under-performing when compared to the level at which it’s performing in other parts of India. It could be because of the film is based on a Gujarati don.

Q. When you will update Last Flop of Bollywood actors?

A. Soon. Thank you for your interest.

Q. How is the word of mouth for Raees and Kaabil?

A. Good for both. Raees leads at single-screens, Kaabil’s word-of-mouth is better at multiplexes.

Q. What’s your thoughts about highest grosser of 2017 keeping in mind Tubelight seems risky on paper and Tiger Zinda Hai is clashing with Dutt biopic?

A. Tubelight is still our top pick for 2017. It’s a deeply emotional film, if the story touches hearts like Bajrangi Bhaijaan, it’ll be unstoppable at the box office. It has Eid, Kabir – Salman and two open weeks. Will be huge.

Q. Considering the delay in releasing the movie and also the clash with Kaabil has Raees performed better than expectation?

A. Yes, Raees has exceeded expectations as far as the opening two days is concerned. It’s Shah Rukh Khan all the way through because it’s not the sort of film that you expect the family audience to come. But they have.

Q. If Kaabil had got more screens & Got 50:50 Screens then do you think present scenario would have been different ?

A. Business of Raees would’ve been lower by around 10-15% on almost all days, Raees was performing at a very high very in the first two days and having more capacity really helped. Wouldn’t have made any difference to Kaabil on Day 1 or Day 3, but collections of Day 2, Day 4 (night shows) and Day 5 would’ve been higher.

Q. Being one of the most trusted trade sites, why don’t you start a feature where you post the average of the collections estimated by trade people and the producers’ figures, day-wise and lifetime. I feel that will give a clearer picture to the public.

A. We get more than 3 lakh visitors a day and a lot of those people aren’t even aware of the difference between trade / producer numbers. One number is simple for everyone to know how much a film is collecting at the box office, more than one number creates confuses. The other reason why we cannot give our estimates or trade figures as the final number is because we do IndicineFBO and LBO too. We can’t be giving our own numbers and then saying the FBO is accurate. It’s tricky, we are looking for a solution.

Q. Which film is the best since 2001 to 2016 in Bollywood?

A. The best trending film at the box office, is probably the best too. It has to be 3 Idiots, without doubt the most loved film. We’ve done several polls because Raju Hirani films, between Aamir films.. 3 Idiots tops always.

Q. You have mentioned that “Muslim audience are coming in big numbers for watching Raees” is the Muslim flavour and dialogues the reason ??

A. Obviously, yes. They are coming out in big numbers. If they start owning the film during the weekdays it could be big and surprise with its final total.

Q. Don’t you think that by releasing Kaabil on 25th it has helped its collection? Or else it would have opened at max 14 crores seeing its 1st day collection.

A. Yes, we truly do have readers who understand box office and spot factors like these. The fact that Kaabil released a day before the holiday really helped the film to get a big jump on the holiday. The word-of-mouth had begun to come into play on the second day. It was a good decision.

Q. My question is, if it is due to films like Chandni Chowk to China and Kambakkht Ishq that multiplex audience weren’t coming in big numbers for Akshay’s films before Airlift, how come his following amongst the masses still remained steady?

A. The love and acceptance from the masses is extremely difficult to earn – they do not love every star. But once they do, they are much more dedicated than the multiplex audience – who also look at content and are not star-obsessed. It’s just that the contribution from them (masses, single screen audience) towards the box office collections is less due to lower ticket prices. So, stars have to do films that have something in it for both. If a star does a film like Baby, masses won’t come.

Q. Padman doesn’t look as a very interesting project. The concept of the film doesn’t look as if it will encourage many lots of people to come to the theatres, and the only release date that seems to be available for the films is in between the 4 weeks gap between Padmavati and Christmas which will also dent its collections. It might be too early to talk but want to know what are your views on it?

A. Yes, we’ve been thinking the same. Conservative Indians might find it uncomfortable to watch the film. But R Balki is an accomplished director. A lot would depend on the presentation, if it’s subtly done, it may not be a big problem. We’ll have to wait and see how it goes, a lot of time still.

Q. Want to know, HR was among top two star in last decade. As a fan, its lil disappointing to see all the politics and negativity around. Plus his last 2 movies haven’t opened as well as expected. According to you, what he needs to to retain his earlier position. As i firmly believe he is one the top actors (along with Aamir) we have in the industry.

A. Star power does not disappear with one or two films. We’ve got to remember that he has recorded the highest opening day of all time with Agneepath, he’s delivered record openers with Krrish, Dhoom, Koi Mil Gaya, Mission Kashmir. He has all-time and highest grossers of the year to his credit too. Opening of films also depends on the concept, look and feel of the film.

Kaabil did not have very appealing promos and it was up against a film which had a bigger star as well as arguably the best promos for a film in a very long time. It was never a film that was meant to take an initial, in fact the clash should’ve been completely averted because Kaabil is a film that grows on the audience and does well in the long run.

For give you another example – Aamir’s Talaash opened at 13 crore solo, his PK with a big director and more commercial value did 26 crore and his most commercial film with franchise value did 36 crore. Aamir is the same, his star-power is the same, but the films are very different from each other and hence the big variation in opening.

Q. Hello Indicine, since movies with good story and heart are doing well these days i was wondering what would be the collections of swades and chak de india if they came out in todays times. Swades wasn’t overly sucessful at launch compared to SRK’s other blockbusters do you think the reception of it today would be different?

A. Swades wouldn’t work even today, but it wouldn’t have flopped like it did when it released. It’s just way too long and lacks commercial value to perform anywhere beyond a select few cities. Chak De India with the right release circumstances would’ve done more than 300 crore in India.

Q. Why is that whenever we expect Ajay Devgn to deliver a big hit(forget 150 but even a major 100 cr grosser) we have to wait for a Rohit Shetty film/franchise to happen? I mean he is such a wonderful actor(the only national award winning superstar as we all know). Even Baadshao that looks very interesting on paper, you are ‘expecting’ only 70 cr at the moment. Why is this so?

A. We like to be frank in our QnA, so even though a lot of people might not like it, the fact is, Ajay does not have much of a pull with the multiplex audience. The bigger the city, the lesser the pull. Which is why the decision to make a very expensive film like Shivaay was always going to backfire unless the film turned out to be extraordinary. In Rohit Shetty films, he turns it around because he makes those commercial films and uses Ajay’s talent too. Credit should also go to Ajay for playing his characters so well.

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Q. First of all THANK YOU for always being unbiased. My question is, apart from financial benefits what did Shahrukh Khan and Hrithik earned and learnt from this clash. I am asking this because after a long time both have done a good movie.

A. We hope the industry learns from this. Clashes between two films are never good.  We barely manage to get 10 clean-hits a year and we only have 5-6 major stars in the industry, if the decide to take on each other.. it’s the industry that will suffer. These clashes are good for us actually, we get a lot of traffic. But for everyone else, very little to gain and a lot to lose. SRK would’ve probably got a 200 crore grosser if this released during Bakrid last year – which was surprisingly taken by Excel’s own washout Baar Baar Baar. The weekend was wasted. Rakesh Roshan too should’ve realised the buzz was clearly in favour of Raees and Kaabil wasn’t the kind of film that would’ve taken a initial even if it opened solo.  So better go separately. It was a surprise that the men involved couldn’t sort out the issue. They are all so close and friendly, it’s been affected now. So much to lose, nothing to gain.

It’s been a long QnA. More than 3 hours. Thank you for joining us tonight.