AskIndicine: Has concluded

Before we begin the QnA, check out the results of the poll that we conducted on the site. You can still vote, if you haven’t already:

Q. Raees is releasing on 25th January in the morning, but Kaabil will be evening shows (6pm). What will be the collections of Raees 1st day and Kaabil paid previews?

A. It’s not possible for Raees to release in the morning and Kaabil in the evening. Both films should eventually release in the morning itself, that’s how the exhibitors and distributors would like it to be. As for the collections on Day 1, it won’t be a holiday release, but more like a non-holiday Saturday release. The reason for releasing the film a day before the holiday is to take advantage of night shows. When the following day (in this case Republic Day) is a holiday, the night shows on the previous day usually tends to have higher occupancy. It’s exactly the reason why most multiplex films show growth on Saturday. We are expecting the two films combined to share around 30 crore, with Raees leading at this point in time.

Q. If Dangal gets Tax Free Status across India or in 5+ States, do you think Dangal can challenge PK’s lifetime Collection?

A. The central government doesn’t decide entertainment tax exemption, it comes under the state government. So even if the film gets tax free status in a couple of major states, it should benefit. It’ll obviously become easier for the film to reach PK, but that’s not a certainty because the word-of-mouth has to be extraordinary. Also, PK had several extra holidays, whereas Dangal doesn’t really get any advantage because both Christmas and New Year falls on Sunday this year.

Q. In the next year, which Hollywood films can be a threat to Bollywood?

A. The top picks would be Fast and Furious 8 and Spiderman Homecoming. Trailer of Spiderman below

Q. What’s your prediction on the combined collection of Raees and Kaabil?

A. It’s not a big weekend and the family audience may not come for both films. Ticket prices too, may not be at festive rates. So, from what we’ve seen so far, we expect both films to collect somewhere in the range of Rs 200 crore combined!

Q. What are the chances of SRK to be top again bcoz he is doing 5 movies back to back Raees, With Anushka(The Ring), The dwarf movie, Aditya Chopra’s next, Don 3. They look promising and have potential to rock box office?

A. For any actor to reach the top – three things are very important apart from stardom. One, the ability to get the big festive weekends (Eid, Christmas). Two, ensuring that your film gets a solo release. And three, the film has to be good and universally appealing. Raees fails on all three counts, The Ring has a better chance but romantic films shot overseas may not have the potential to cross 200. Don 3 will find it difficult too, unless they move away and make it commercial and massy. The best chance is with the Aanand L Rai film.

Also, unless the form of the Top 2 dips, SRK needs 2-3 major grossers to reclaim the top spot. Salman and Aamir have really upped the game in the last 6-7 years, making it almost impossible for anyone to touch them. At the domestic box office, there is currently a huge gap between those two and the rest.

Q. What is status of Shahid Kapoor in Bollywood with respect to box-office, crowd puller , star power in different parts of world , acting talent?

A. He scores a 10 in acting talent, but very little in the other three. Potential has always been there, but so many films with Vishal Bhardwaj can be disastrous for anyones career – from a box office point of view, of course.

Q. No poster or trailer for Commando 2 wasn’t it supposed to be the first 2017 release. Is it postponed or shelved.

A. Not shelved, but postponed to March 3rd 2017.

Q. Every where all started to predict Top 10 Movies of 2017.. So ur one of the most popular bollywood site in net..So whats which are the 10 films you expect to make it big in Box office next year?

A. We had already done an article on the most awaited films of 2017. Our official LBO prediction for 2017 is in the works, we have compiled data from several people from the trade. It should be out soon. Thanks for your interest.

Q. What has been the response to Raees trailer? And please tell me the biggest initial day crowdpullers of Hindi cinema CURRENTLY in domestic box office as well as overseas.

A. Response is good, detailed article on trade and audience response is being worked on. Biggest crowd-pullers domestic is Salman Khan, overseas Shah Rukh Khan.

Q. Approximate Screen counts for Raees and Kaabil. I know the question is bit early but requesting estimates based on the trailer response of both the movies.

A. Raees should get around 2700-2800 screens, while Kaabil might release on 2400-2500 screens.

Q. Since the trailer of Raees has received positive response from audience, its for sure that SRK starrer will take a much better opening than Kabil if both come since the morning shows…But do you think Raees can be that first NonEDX 200cr earner in the history of indian cinema if the movie is more appreciated than Kabil after its release..?

A. It’s difficult for any film to cross 200 crore in a clash, even Bajirao Mastani with the biggest Christmas weekend and the advantage of extraordinary word-of-mouth – fell short of 190 crore. Even if it was a solo release, no trade analyst or someone who understands box office, would expect 200 crore from Raees. The family audience, who contribute hugely to the collections, won’t come to watch the film. The director and even the banner (Excel) is not known to make massy films. The only chance for Raees to cross 175 crore is if it turns out to be a hugely entertaining film and Kaabil becomes a rejected disaster.

Q. Do you think Rakesh Roshan is astutely playing the sympathy/victim card by passing such statements in the media about the “clash”?

A. We’ve all got to understand one thing. Filmmaking is a business and a lot of people are involved. It’s not only about Rakesh Roshan, but also his distributors. A ‘clash’ can affect the business of both films and both will be worried about recovering their investment. We stick to what we said earlier – it was stupid on the part of Raees makers to avoid one clash and take on another film. At the same time, this ‘superstitious’ bit from Rakesh Roshan sounds a little too – if he can change his date from 26th to 25th, why not release it a week earlier or later? There is a still quite a bit of time though, one film can still move.

Q. Congrats for accurate FBO prediction for Befikre. How is the WOM for the film?

A. Thanks. The word-of-mouth seems to be mixed, and possibly veering towards negative. It’ll be clear on Monday, but do wait for our final LBO (lifetime) prediction tomorrow.

Thank you for joining us today. A few more questions will be answered next week.