AskIndicine: Live Now

Q. During Dilwale and Shivaay we heard a term ‘Bulgarian Rebate’ included in budget recovery… What is that?

A. The governments of different countries give cash rebates to producers for shooting films in their country, which helps promote tourism along with some other benefits. Rebates help reduce production costs.

Q. From a while some industry people are calling Dangal the Best mainstream Film of the Decade.As major portion of the Decade is gone,Which film till now can be termed as Best Film of the Decade?

A. What people in the industry say, does not make any difference. Celebrity tweets or opinions are not taken seriously by the audience. The only thing that matters is what sort of response the film gets when it releases in theatres. There is definitely a lot of hope that it could be a classic, because of Aamir Khan’s presence. The best film of the decade so far is Bajrangi Bhaijaan, followed by PK. This includes both the response at theatres as well as television.

Q. When is Robot 2.0 ‘s first look releasing ?

A. The first look of Robot 2.0 will be released next week.

Q. Under which slab of GST entertainment tax is coming?when it is going to be implemented? If ticket prices remain the same, what will be the nett collection of a movie which grosses 400 cr in India?Further kindly explain how GST will work? The tax nowadays is 40%.

A. Entertainment tax is likely to come under the 28% slab. It will be implemented from April 1 2017. If ticket prices remain the same, the net collections will be up by around 10%, if ticket prices are lowered it could increase footfalls – because more people will come to watch the film if tickets are cheaper. It could be a win-win situation. It’s a good opportunity to reduce the price of snacks and drinks, should make movie outings a lot more affordable for the public.

Q. Will demonetization affect Dangal collection?

A. Highly unlikely. Circulation of money will increase by the end of this week and with each passing day, impact on film business will decrease. Force 2 will be affected to a certain extent, but Befikre onwards things should be back to normal.

Q. How you can analyse this year until now the Box office performance of Bollywood films? Good or Bad or below expectations. Because many small budget films performed well and big ones lost.

A. It’s been an average year so far. Some of the biggest films this year have failed – Fan, Mohenjo Daro and Shivaay. Even a film like Housefull 3 was expected to earn a lot more than it did. Smaller films have worked, but we’ve had such multiplex hits in the last few years too. Nine 100 crore films in 2014, Six in 2015 and Six so far this year – Dangal looking like the only other film that’s certain to do 100.

Q. Till now are you still going with Sultan as Highest Grosser of The Year? How much there is chance that it will retain it’s Position?Everone who has watched Dangal or read its script is terming it the Best.

A. Some reasons why we’ve been constantly saying ‘Sultan’ should remain the highest grosser of the year is because - One, both the major holidays (Christmas and New Year) fall on Sunday so the big holiday advantage won’t be there this year. Two, the film will have to be entertaining for the masses – Taare Zameen Par was a classic, one of the best films of last decade, but ‘Welcome’ which released on the same day collected a lot more even though critics slammed it. Three, it’ll have to have repeat-value too, a total of 300 crore plus is difficult to achieve if people do not return to watch the film more than once.

Having said that, Aamir’s track record during Christmas is extraordinary. Ghajini, 3 Idiots, Dhoom 3, PK weren’t just the highest grossers of the year, but all of those films went on to be the highest grossers of all time too.

Q. What is the BO Verdict of Sultan (both India & overseas)?is it a bigger hit than 3 Idiots & Dhoom 3?

A. As far as return-on-investment is concerned it’ll be this order – 3 Idiots, Sultan, Dhoom 3.

Q. What went wrong in Rock On ? Whats the budget and how much it will loss ? Dont you think movies like rock on should be tight on budget as it attracts a certain group of audience ?

A. The first ‘Rock On’ film worked only with a small section of the audience in urban cities and the film did well only because of music. But the sequel failed to generate any interest because the music album failed, the first film was liked but not loved so the eagerness to watch the sequel was missing, the promos were dull and eventually the film hasn’t been liked either. To add to the woes, the demonetisation of 500/1000 notes seems to have affected business by around 20-25%.

Q. Who is the biggest superstar of India considering all time ratings?

A. When it comes to the true superstars of Hindi Cinema, actors whose stardom is a cut above the rest – then it could just be four – Rajesh Khanna, Amitabh Bachchan, Salman Khan and Shah Rukh Khan (in no particular order).

Q. Do you think demonetisation of Rs 500/1000 notes will have an impact on Dear Zindagi as it is also a multiplex movie ?

A. Dear Zindagi could be affected by around 5%, don’t think it’s going to be more than that because card payments are unaffected and cash in circulation will increase by the time Dear Zindagi releases on 25 November.

Q. If Raees manages to find appreciation among the masses, the classes and the family audience as well (though it is a crime thriller and has Sunny Leone).. Will it have a healthy chance to earn at least 200cr nett clashing with Kaabil?

A. Highly unlikely. The banner itself (Excel Entertainment) is not known to make the kind of films that appeals to every section of the audience. Most of their films are targeted at the urban audience, so when a banner like Excel and a director like Rahul Dholakia  (Parzania, Mumbai Cutting etc) comes up with a massy film – it’s a wait and watch situation. We’ll have to see how it goes. The response to the teaser was outstanding, but there have been way too many delays. It’ll have to be a very good film to even do 150 crore. Not the best period of release, plus clash with another big film.

We continue the QnA: All the questions below were answered on 14th November

Q. You have mentioned a lot of times that the industry is working at 5% success rate. On top of it you have colossal flops in the last 2 yrs. Bombay Velvet, The broken horses, Fitoor, Mohenjo Daro, BBD and now Rock on 2 to name a few. How long do you think this will continue? How long would investors continue to put big money on directors like Ashutosh Gowariker, Anurag Kashyap, production houses like excel and actors like farhan akhtar? Do you forsee less movies being made from 2018 of budget higher than 60 cr? Dont you think the television industry should stop paying high satellite prices as even for a film like sultan the impressions are significantlly lower?

A. The industry is probably going through a transition, only good films are working. No other tactic like excessive marketing or a popular music album is helping films at the box office. If the film isn’t worth it, the audience is unwilling to pay. That’s been the problem with films like Mohenjo Daro and FAN, two films that even star power couldn’t save. Fitoor, Mirzya, Rock On 2 were rejected outright too – because it did not appeal to any section of the audience. Even reviews like ‘Poetry on screen’ for films like Mirzya is actually a turn off for the audience. In 2017, GST will give film business a boost.. but to what extent it helps is something that remains to be seen. Sultan is a hit on television, the film is doing well on repeat-run.

Q. Why is Hollywood movies performance, their collections and trend in India, not analyzed here elaborately?

A. Hollywood films are too inconsistent for us to analyse or predict. Only superhero / big action films are working. It’s the trailer, scale and content that’s pulling those films – which makes it difficult / impossible to predict. The opening day of Hindi films is more star cast dependent.

Q. Now that Golmaal 4 has been announced, when do you think The Ring will come? Almost all Festivals and weekends are already booked for 2017…Also which movie has highest chance to come on Eid 2018?

A. Golmaal 4 was announced long ago for Diwali 2017, only the female lead (Parineeti Chopra) was announced yesterday. Yes, almost all weekends are booked for 2017 – we have an article that’ll be published later today on this. Eid 2018 should have Salman yet again, no confirmation on the film so far.

Q. Should we expect more impact on upcoming release ( force and others) with the Ban on 500 and 1000 notes.

A. We expect the impact of demonetisation to be around 25% on Force 2. The FBO page has been updated today with the latest figures. Force 2 is down from around 7.6 crore to 5.4 crore. If things improve in the next few days, we’ll update the FBO page. Things should significantly improve ‘Dear Zindagi’ release onwards. It’s not about the lack of money (people can still pay using cash), it’s just that the priorities at this point in time are different. Not many people want to watch films, the focus is more on helping other people.. getting daily essentials, keeping extra cash.

Q. If you can predict or assume…which actors will be in Top 3 after 10 years… and why ?

A. Established stars aside, our money is on Ranbir Kapoor, Varun Dhawan and Ranveer Singh.

Q. What are your initial LBO predictions for Kaabil, with and without clash ?

A. Our initial predictions always assume that the word-of-mouth will be mixed to positive, so if Kaabil gets a solo release, then it should do around 130-140 crore. But clashes are very difficult to predict, more so when the other film stars Shah Rukh Khan. The result will be almost entirely dependent on word-of-mouth, as the better film will get all the business. Perception about which film is better, plays a big role too and that’s where the PR and media comes in.

Q. What’s the impact on moviegoers with the ban on 500 and 1000 notes. We have been reading its effect on small retailers but do you have any stats on Theaters and Multiplexes across country.

A. There has been an impact of 20 – 40% on film business. The smaller the centre, the bigger the impact. That’s the reaction that we’ve been getting from exhibitors. But there haven’t been any films either, Rock On 2 was mostly a multiplex film that was rejected.

Q. According to you which date is best release date for The Ring ??? Is it better to release solo on non festive period rather than clashing on a festival period ???

A. Out of suggestions at the moment because there are no good dates left in 2017. Even the Post-IPL date has been taken by ‘Toilet Ek Prem Katha’. So it’s either about releasing the film during a normal weekend or taking another film on and risking yet another clash.

Q. Looking at d upcoming movies of Akshay Kumar I strongly feel that gold is a 150-200 crores film if the content clicks and is liked by each and every section of audience since Akshay is first time coming in a sports film.. What are your views on it?

A. Such predictions cannot be made before knowing the look and feel of a film. Only a commercially-entertaining films that finds appreciation across the country, can do go on to be huge grossers. His line-up is solid, probably the most varied and best choices among actors, but choices almost don’t make a film successful. A good script or a promising idea doesn’t always translate into a good film on-screen. The trailer of each of those films will give us a better idea on the box office prospects.

Q. Hi Indicine, it’s my first foray into your funtastic Q&A section from Malaysia. I think it’s the only Bollywood web that make me hooked and bookmarked. Well done for all the latest updates and news. Hope the visitors to your site appreciate this. My question is: 1. Why Aamir Khan’s films do best by beating his own records by the fact we know that he has got not many fans compare to Rajnikanth, Salman, Shahrukh & Amitabh? 2. If the content then why Fan didn’t make it or BB and Sultan could beat Aamir’s record?

A. Thank you. One, Aamir is different from other actors. He doesn’t command a crazy / blind following that a Rajnikanth or Salman do, but it’s his films that appeal to audience that doesn’t even normally watch films. It could also be because Aamir is always the character in his films and very rarely do we find him playing larger-than-life roles. His persona doesn’t come across in his character. But for a Salman, Rajnikanth or SRK.. their persona, charisma, dialogue delivery can more-often-than-not overshadow the character itself – which is why the audience pay to see them, more than even their films.

Two, a large section of the audience did not like FAN. It’s a rejected film. It could be the ending or the lack or songs or the film itself.. but FAN didn’t carry any appreciation.

10 more questions were answered today – Join us once again on Thursday for answered to the remaining 10 questions. Thank you for joining us today.