AskIndicine: 2nd October 2016 at 4PM

After a week’s break, we are back this week with AskIndicine. Begins 4PM Indian Standard Time. Post your questions in the comments section below

Q. How much did Flying Jatt lose and what’s its verdict? Flop ie below average?

A. The verdict is ‘Flop’. The budget was around 50 crore and recovery through worldwide theatrical business was less than 20 crore (share, not net collections).

Q. Do you think Excel made a mistake by announcing the release on 26 Jan for Raees…They could have released the movie on Christmas with Dangal as it was guaranteed to collect better than Republic Day weekend… Overseas collections also will be better for Christmas Weekend compared to January.

A.We have written several articles on this, including one before the announcement, where we mentioned that the last thing the makers would want to do is, get involved in another clash. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what has happened and it’s hurting a film that had generated quite a lot of interest after the teaser.

September 9th was the best date for the film – open 4 day weekend, Bakrid period, plus the movie would’ve released before the relationship between India and Pakistan worsened.

Now, with the lead star of the film being a Pakistani actress, the film is in trouble. How will SRK introduce his leading lady to the Indian media and audience? How will they promote the film? What if, god forbid, there are more attacks or the relationship between the two countries worsens further? More than the protests from political parties, the real worry is the public anger.

The makers have only themselves to blame for the mess that they find themselves in. You can’t avert one clash and get involved in another (when there were other better dates), you can’t release the teaser 1.5 years before its theatrical release.

Q. Are Shivaay promotions proper & adequate in today’s times or it has been under marketed ? Can it go past 200 crore now as ADHM is not that hot in trade ?

A. Film promotion is over-rated, Diwali films do not really need to be over-promoted, as a lot of people want to watch films during this period and are well aware of the films that are scheduled to release. Whether it crosses the 200 crore mark or not, depends on content which has to be extraordinary, for it to even have an outside chance. Ae Dil Hai Mushkil cannot be labelled as ‘not hot’. The trailer and songs have generated quite a lot of interest at urban centres and from overseas alone it could recover nearly half of its investment.

Q. In how many years do you think the Hollywood movies will start dominating Indian movies in India.. or will it never happen.. ur views?

A. As long as we keep producing stars and keep improving in the content department, the threat won’t be big. Hollywood films doing well is good for exhibitors and multiplex chains.

Q. Arrange in terms of best year for Akshay – 1994, 2007, 2012, 2016?

A. 2007 was his best year, because it was the only year his films not only opened record levels, but he also had a 100% success ratio. Followed by 1994, he had a record number of releases, some flopped, some did very well. After that comes 2016, 100% success ratio and fairly decent grossers. Finally 2012, one disaster (Joker), one under-performer (Khiladi 786) and two hugely successful films.

Q. What is the Budget of Raees? Why are they changing the movie release date again, why did they not release it on Bakri Eid instead of Baar Baar Dekho?
Don’t you think they are being unfair to the biggest film in their kitty?

A. The budget of Raees ‘should’ be close to 100 – 110 crore including marketing, it has increased because of the delay. More accurate figure, closer to release. For now, we haven’t received any official word on postponement of the film. They denied it yesterday. But there have been reports within the industry that the makers are ‘looking’ to see if they can find better dates.

Q. Hi I’m from Sri Lanka . I’m a big fan of war movies like saving private Ryan , Enemy at the gates and one of my all time favorite Border . My question is why cant Bollywood make great war movies like Border with advanced technology ? Why the war genre has been neglected by the Bollywood directors ? Even Bajirao Mastani didn’t have any large scale epic combat scenes.

A. You could watch a film like ‘Baahubali’, it had scale and a great story to tell. In the Hindi film industry, scope and talent is definitely there, but the problem is, budget constraints. A big war film probably needs 100 – 130 crore solely kept aside for its cost of production, excluding talent-fee. But a huge chunk of our budget goes towards actor-director fee. For example, there were reports that Ashutosh Gowarikar cut down on costs by compromising on VFX of his film, but Hrithik took home a huge fee which was nearly 4-5 times more than the VFX budget.

Q. I just have an inner feeling that Shivaay will be among the Top 3 highest grosser of the year. My question to you indicine is what is your current view on Shivaay? Has Ajay Devgn so far impressed you with all what has been evolving from the very day he released his motion logo to just released Raaten video song. Your honest opinion please,it will be of good help in my mindset too from your point of view.

A. ‘Shivaay’ needs to collect upwards of 130/135 crore to recover its costs, so merely entering the Top 3 highest grossers of the year wouldn’t be good enough. It’s a big budget film and it needs to be a good film to work. Basically, Ajay has to deliver his highest career grosser without the advance of Singham’s franchise value (which is currently his biggest) and a clash against Ae Dil Hai Mushkil. It’ll have to be well received like say ‘Bajirao Mastani’ for it to work. So far, the trailer has received a huge response and the songs have been fairly well-received too. Our opinion – it’s either going to be a huge disaster or a huge grosser.

Q. Shahrukh Gave up Eid 2016 for Salman. His film The Ring does not have a release date still and Salman has already occupied EID and Christmas. Is it fair because once again his film does not have a proper release date?

A. There is no ‘giving up’ business in the industry. Salman pretty much snatched it away because of his track record during Eid and current stardom. The bigger star (present standing) will take the bigger dates. In the current scenario, major stars need to be in a position to scare away the opposition. Else it’s very difficult to get a solo release during Eid, Diwali, Christmas or even the other major weekends.

Q. Which will be the bigger movie in North India- Golmaal 4 or Robot 2?

A. Too early to talk about it, we need to see the promos, especially those of Robot 2. Golmaal is a hugely popular series and has a following Pan-India. It’ll have no chance in the south because nothing can compete against Rajnikanth, but North and the rest of the country should be more even i.e if the two films come out during Diwali.

Q. What is the current status of Ranbir’s movie Dragon. Tiger Shroff is again working with Sabbir in a masala movie. Isn’t he too repetitive and limited. Please answer this time.

A. The superhero film with Ayan Mukerji is happening. We do not have dates. As for Tiger’s film with Sabbir Khan, it’s been titled ‘Munna Michael’. It may not really get repetitive for the masses, because they like watching such films and other actors are mostly catering to the multiplex audience.

Q. With all respect to Amitabh Bachchan he is a legend no doubt but don’t you think his stardom in 1970s and 1980s is little overrated compared to Khans? I think so because most of his major blockbusters were multi-starrers and the biggest being Sholay. While khans have given maximum solo blockbusters. Whats your opinion on this?

A. Not at all. Amitabh Bachchan was one-man-industry. The footfalls he used to generate was more than the biggest blockbusters of today. Khans have been more evenly matched over the years. During his prime, it was Bachchan, a big gap and then everyone else.

Q. Is Mirzya a commercial film?

A. It’s meant to be, but it’s not looking like one. Actors have been asked to tweet about it, to increase the awareness and generate some interest. But it’ll all be about content. If people don’t like the film, it’ll be a huge disaster, if they like it.. it’ll still be difficult to recover costs. The film needs to collect upwards of 70 crore. Will not be easy.

Q. Why do you still underestimate Shivaay? Do you really think that after dull trailer and the protests by MNS, Ae Dil Hai Mushkil has any chance to give a fight against Shivaay which hasn’t put single foot wrong so far? Don’t you think its logical to say that Shivaay will open more than 20 cr now?

A. We keep getting similar questions for almost every big film. People asked the same questions even when we opened FBO of Mohenjo Daro at 14 crore and it went gradually down from there. It’s not possible for Shivaay to take a 20 crore plus opening, if it doesn’t release on the Diwali holiday. Since it’s releasing on a non-holiday Friday, the best the two films combined can collect is probably around 27-28 crore (best case being 30). Anything more would be really very surprising. Out of that, Ae Dil Hai Mushkil will take about 50% of the shows at multiplexes and business will be divided.

A film directed by Karan Johar starring Ranbir Kapoor and Anushka Sharma can never be under-estimated. It’s a big film. It’ll open well.  Music, emotion and romance.. does appeal to a large section of the audience. Too early to talk about protests etc, because it depends on how the PR handles it. Fawad Khan won’t be promoting the film and he only has an extended special appearance, he isn’t playing the lead. So we’ll have to wait and see how it goes.

Q. Any inside news you have about the release date of Srk-Anushka-Imtiaz movie?

A. Last heard, they are still looking at the September 29 weekend next year.

Q. Heard that there was some sneak peak of ‘Raees’ for some of the distributors and exhibitors… is that true?

A. Yes, about 15 minutes of the film was shown to exhibitors. This was to try and convince the single-screen exhibitors to opt for Raees instead of Kaabil. Raees is a massy film. As for the reports – the Sunny Leone song is a hit, say people who have watched it. The rest was average.

Q. After seeing the collections of MS Dhoni,isnt it important to make a good film and promoting it well even if getting a normal week rather than fighting for single day holiday periods and clashing?

A. Dhoni is an exceptional case, it has opened well because of Dhoni’s popularity in every nook and corner of the country. As for clashes vs solo release – it’s better to opt for a solo release on a normal week, especially for bigger films. If the content of the smaller film is good, it’ll almost always have a great chance of upsetting the bigger film – like we’ve seen with Bajirao Mastani and Rustom.

Q. Why Eros International backed out from SHIVAAY? Aren’t they happy with the product or they didn’t want to ruin their relationship with Karan johar?

A. Ajay wanted a price (for the worldwide rights) that Eros weren’t willing to pay.

Q. Is Shraddha Kapoor right now the most popular actress among all sections of audiences?

A. Not at the top, but right up there in the Top 3. People at mass centres love her!

Q. Your predictions about Jolly LLB 2? hope you answer bcoz i have asked it for 3rd time

A. We’ll be adding films from the first half of 2017 to our LBO page.

Q. Is Ranveer Singh a big star after success of Ram Leela and Bajirao Mastani? Can his solo project can be big opener on his own in range of 12-13 cr without big director/ Deepika?

A. We’ll know after the release of ‘Befikre’. It does have a big director, but Vaani Kapoor is not very popular. Ranveer is popular for sure, but needs to get more consistent with the opening of his films.

Q. How much credit should go to Dhoni for such an excellent opening of MS Dhoni The Untold story & how much credit should go to Sushant ?

A. Sushant was brilliant in the acting department, but the credit for the opening almost entirely goes to Dhoni. He’s incredibly popular across India. Else, the opening would be around Azhar’s level.

Q. Is Sushant still a ‘small rising star’ even after super success of Dhoni? 4 films so far 2 hits, 1 bumper hit, 1 flop & 1 atbb in supporting role plus acting appreciation in all his films with Dhoni being a great performance

A. Let’s not give any actor more credit than he deserves, especially those who have done less than 5 films. Let them grow a fan base and get more consistent with opening. Sushant has done just 4 films, Dhoni and PK did not open because of him. Let’s wait and see how Raabta goes.

Q. Do you think the outrage against Salman after his comment on Pak Artists justified? Please be frank?

A. Not at all. He was misquoted. People need to read the full statement that he gave. It was balanced and sensible. Having said that, actors do not really need to comment on current affairs, which includes sensitive political issues. What is the need? Media lays a trap, actors continue to fall for it. Media gets TRPs, actors get involved in a controversy and have all the explaining to do. Win-win for media. Nothing to gain for actors, atleast those who do not need publicity.

Q. You always say that star power applies only for the release day of a film and then the content takes on… but do you think that if Akshay or Ranveer or Ajay acted in Sultan, would it have collected atleast 200 crore?

A. It’s an interesting question, because only the big stars have been able to deliver those 200 plus grossers. Actors like Salman, SRK or Aamir appeal to a large section of audience, so the neutral audience when they see a film that’s out there that’s being liked by the audience.. they are more like to come out to watch the film when it has a big recognisable name like Salman.  So the value of a superstar rises quite significantly if the film is liked. You can’t expect actors like say a Varun Dhawan or Ranveer Singh to deliver a huge 300 crore plus grosser, it’ll take time. The fact that actors like Salman can sell a ticket for a much higher price also helps.

Q. Dangal inside report? How the movie has shaped up ?

A. Reports are outstanding. We’ve not heard a single negative comment on Dangal so far.

Q. Which one is bigger Disaster – Bombay Velvet or Mohanjo Daro? Expectation wise & BoxOffice Wise (RoI) ? & why?

A. In terms of money lost, definitely Bombay Velvet. Mohenjo Daro did 60 crore, which 95% of films still don’t earn. Bombay Velvet was a complete washout at 25 crore. Expectations-wise, Mohenjo Daro was a major disappointment, undoubtedly the biggest of the year.

Q. Can Tubelight Cross 50cr. on opening day – because Tax will be reduced to 18-20%? what can be expected range?

A. Not clarity on when GST will be implemented just yet. We’ll keep you updated. Net collections will definitely increase when GST comes into effect. 50 crore net will become much more easier. But we hope ticket prices are reduced and the paying-public is given some benefit too. When tickets become more affordable, it’ll increase footfalls (i.e more people will come to watch the film)

Q. Can MSDhoni earn 150cr at box office ?? Will the give the necessary boost to the career of Sushant Singh Rajput ?

A. Our LBO prediction is coming up in sometime. Stay tuned for that. A hit film benefits everyone, so it’ll definitely help Sushant. He’ll get more offers and hopefully get to work in bigger films.

Q. Can Befikre open to 20cr nett and establish Ranveer Singh as a Superstar?

A. We would not go to the extent of calling any of these younger stars as ‘superstars’ atleast for the next 2-3 years. It just wouldn’t do justice to stars who truly command a following. It’s not just about collections, but more about following and love that some of the older actors command. Varun aside, none of the other actors have been consistent with the opening of their films. Ranbir is probably the only actor who almost reached that ‘superstar’ stage after Barfi, Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani and the opening that Besharam got.. but it’s downhill since.

That ends our QnA session for today. 30 questions were answered. Thank you for joining us. Stay tuned to our LBO prediction of ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’