ABCD 2 Box Office Prediction: Hit or Flop?

It’s difficult to make predictions for a film like ABCD 2, mainly because the film, like Tanu Weds Manu Returns, should take a decent opening both at single-screens and multiplexes. It also features a bankable star like Varun Dhawan, who has a 100% success ratio so far in his career. All his films have opened well at the box office too.

Opening day collections of Varun Dhawan films:

• Student Of The Year – 8.25 crore
• Main Tera Hero – 5.9 crore
• Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania – 9.1 crore
• Badlapur – 7.25 crore

His latest release ABCD 2 should be his biggest opener to date as advance booking of the film is better than films like Baby, Gabbar Is Back and even Tanu Weds Manu Returns.

As part of our #IndicineFBO predictions, we expect ABCD 2 to collect Rs 12.5 crore on Day 1. The fact that the film is also releasing in 3D should also give its business a decent boost at multiplexes.

Movie	Prediction	Official
Tevar	6.5	7.05 cr	+ 8%
Alone	4	3.50 cr	- 12%
Hawaizaada	1.25	0.6 cr	- 52%
Khamoshiyan	1.75	1.92 cr	+ 9%
Baby	8.5	9.30 cr	+ 9%
Dolly Ki Doli	1.6	1.75 cr	+ 9%
Shamitabh	4.0	3.5 cr	- 12%
Roy	8.5	10.4	+ 22%
Badlapur	6.5	7 cr	+ 7%
Dum Laga Ke Haisha	1.25	1.1	- 12%
Ab Tak Chhappan 2	1.1	1.25	+ 13%
NH10	2.75	3.35	+ 22%
Detective Byomkesh Bakshy	4.5	4.25	- 5%
Ek Paheli Leela	5.25	5.30	+ 1%
Mr X	4.2	4.5	+ 7%
Margarita With A Straw	0.2	0.23	+ 1%
Gabbar Is Back	13	13.05	0%
Piku	5.5	5.32	- 3%
Bombay Velvet	9.5	5.2	- 45%
Tanu Weds Manu Returns	7.05	8.85	+ 25%
Welcome To Karachi	1.5	1.5	0%
Dil Dhadakne Do	9.5	10.53	+ 11%
Hamari Adhuri Kahani	5.75	5.04	- 12%
ABCD 2	12.5	14.3	+ 14%
Bajrangi Bhaijaan	30.4	27.25	- 10%
Drishyam	5.25	5.3	+ 1%
Bangistan	2.5	1.1	- 56%
Brothers	15.5	15.2	- 2%
All Is Well	3.1	2.9	- 6%
Manjhi	1.4	1.4	0%
Phantom	7.6	8.46	11%
Welcome Back	11.5	14.35	+ 24%
Hero	7.5	6.85	- 8%
Katti Batti	4.6	5.28	- 14%
Calendar Girls	1.5	1.5	0%
Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon	4.5	10.15	+ 125%
Singh Is Bling	18.6	20.67	+11%
Talvar	3.3	3.0	-9%
Jazbaa	4.5	4.23	-6%
Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2	3.3	6.80	+ 103%
Shaandaar	14.7	13.1	-11%
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo	43.6	41.75	-4%
Tamasha	11.7	10.87	7%
Hate Story 3	9.4	9.72	3%
Dilwale	25.2	21	- 16%
Bajirao Mastani	11.5	12.8	+ 11%

In the long run, the film has plenty of open weeks before the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan. If it carries appreciation, ABCD 2 should go on to be second 100 crore grosser of 2015 after Tanu Weds Manu Returns. There is the Ramadan factor and rains hitting Maharashtra too, which will both affect the business of the film.

ABCD 2 Box Office Prediction

IF VERY GOOD (excellent word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 - 13 cr
• Day 2 - 14 cr
• Day 3 - 16 cr
• Weekend - 43 cr
• Final - 100 crore +

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 - 12.5 cr
• Day 2 - 13 cr
• Day 3 - 14.5 cr
• Weekend – 40 cr
• Final - 85 crore

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 12 cr
• Day 2 - 12 cr
• Day 3 - 13 cr
• Weekend - 37 cr
• Final - 55 crore

Factors in favour of ABCD 2

• Varun Dhawan and Shraddha Kapoor, both command a good following amongst the youth
• Sequel to a successful film (ABCD)
• Dance film in 3D
• 4 open weeks at the box office. No major releases until Bajrangi Bhaijaan on July 17.

Factors against ABCD 2

• Ramadan period
• Southwest monsoon hitting major states like Karnataka and Maharastra