Shivaay, ADHM Box Office Prediction

There are two big releases this Diwali weekend. Ajay Devgn’s Shivaay and Karan Johar’s Ae Dil Hai Mushkil. The former is Ajay’s biggest film to date – a film on which he has invested nearly 2 years of his life. He’s the actor, the only recognisable face, the director and also the producer!

The other film marks the return of a celebrated director, who gave the industry three stars through his 2012 film ‘Student Of The Year’.

It’s been the most controversial clash the industry has seen, yet come Friday morning, it’s the audience verdict that’s going to be supreme. Nothing else matters, except the opinion of the paying public.

Factors in favour of Shivaay:

  • The well-received first trailer.
  • Scores over the competition when it comes to scale and visual appeal.
  • Action will be a major draw for the single-screen audience.
  • Ajay returns more than a year after his last film ‘Drishyam’, which was very well received.

Factors against Shivaay:

  • A big question mark over Ajay Devgn the director.
  • Poor response to all the promos after the first trailer.

Factors in favour of ADHM:

  • Formidable star cast – Ranbir Kapoor, Anushka Sharma and Aishwarya Rai Bachchan.
  • Karan Johar as director (adds tremendous value in India, huge factor overseas)
  • Chartbuster music, one of the best music albums of 2016.
  • Trailer received mixed response, but the remaining promos have generated interest.

Factors against ADHM

  • Ranbir Kapoor’s lean run – his last 4 films have flopped.
  • Limited appeal at smaller centres.

One factor that’s against both films is the fact that the audience expect a ‘fun popcorn entertainer’ during Diwali and both films don’t exactly fall in that category. This could also be the reason why the hype that we usually associate with Diwali films is missing this time around.

IndicineFBO: We expect ‘Ae Dil Hai Mushkil’ to collect Rs 12.4 crore, the advance booking is solid and the film will be less affected by the ‘Pre-Diwali’ period. Since it’s a film that’s expected to perform better at urban centres, the higher ticket prices should help the film edge out ‘Shivaay’ on the first day.

The response to the advance booking of ‘Shivaay’ has been underwhelming for such a big film, but the true test will come Monday onwards. We expect ‘Shivaay’ to collect 10.7 crore on Day 1.

Wazir4.45.61+ 27%, In accurate
Airlift10.912.35+ 13%, Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 39.38.15- 12%, Accurate
Mastizaade6.15.59- 8%, Accurate
Saala Khadoos2.22.190%, Accurate
Ghayal Once Again6.47.2+ 12%, Accurate
Sanam Re5.55.04- 8%, Accurate
Fitoor5.23.61- 30%, Inaccurate
Neerja4.34.7+ 8%, Accurate
Jai Gangajaal5.25.5+ 6%, Accurate
Kapoor & Sons5.86.85+ 18%, Inaccurate
Rocky Handsome6.35.39- 14%, Accurate
Ki and Ka6.37.27+ 16%, Inaccurate
Fan21.919.2- 12%, Accurate
Baaghi9.411.94+ 27%, Inaccurate
Azhar7.56.3- 16%, Inaccurate
Sarbjit4.23.69- 12%, Accurate
Housefull 317.415.21- 12%, Accurate
Udta Punjab8.910.05- 13%, Accurate
Sultan38.536.54- 5%, Accurate
Great Grand Masti5.82.5- 56%, Inaccurate
Dishoom9.811.02+12%, Accurate
Mohenjo Daro10.78.87- 17%, Inaccurate
Rustom12.614.11+12%, Accurate
Happy Bhaag Jayegi2.12.32+10%, Accurate
A Flying Jatt8.57.11- 16%, Inaccurate
Baar Baar Dekho9.16.81- 25%, Inaccurate
Freaky Ali2.42.5+4%, Accurate
Pink4.54.32-4%, Accurate
Raaz Reboot5.26.31+ 21%, Inaccurate
MS Dhoni20.121.6+7%, Accurate
Mirzya4.02.2- 45%, Inaccurate
Shivaay10.710.24-4%, Accurate
ADHM12.413.3+7%, Accurate
Force 25.86.05+4%, Accurate
Dear Zindagi9.78.75-10%, Accurate
Kahaani 24.54.25-5%, Accurate
Befikre10.510.36-1%, Accurate
Dangal28.629.78+4%, Accurate


  • #AeDilHaiMushkil will beat #Shivaay very badly ….
    Get ready t0 face us n0w Ajay & Salman fans 😂😂😂😂
    Ek trfaa jeet ki taqat e kch aLg h0ti ha 😂😂

  • Good Prediction. A small query. Would the winner of your contest for the first day prediction have to correctly predict the collections of both the movies? Or even the one who predicts one correct would be announced as winner?

  • So the opening battle is set to be won by Ranbir.
    Ajay is most overrated superstar in Bollywood provided anyone considers him a star.With such well received trailer having got maximum likes ratio yet failing to beat a film starring a youngster going through his worst period.There wasn’t a single factor against the movie.
    So better do good movies like Drishyam and Once upon a time where you get plenty of scope to perform.
    But please Don’t be tensed about losing your stardom and fanbase.Because you don’t have any.And for god’s sake learn to take competition in a good spirit rather than taking everything as a matter of ego.

  • Although, it seems an uphill task for Shivaay to recover the costs, I’m still going to watch it tomorrow and support the move to make it. Not many people in Bollywood are brave enough to take risks like this.

  • Higher ticket prices may help ADHM to collect little more than Shivaay on opening but from Monday onwards Shivaay will be leading..

  • Ajay fans are the most delusional people.
    I mean they were expecting Shivaay to thrash adhm while it is all set to lose the opening battle.
    Even Dilwale was defeated by BM but it collected 60% more than bm.
    Even in rustom case MD was surrounded by negativity with disappointing trailer and lukewarm response to its songs.
    So the biggest upset is the realisation of the fact for a certain fan base that there are basically 6 actors who could be called superstars with Ranbir most probably making a permanent place while a senior actor has never been a top star despite struggling for more than 2 decades.

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