There are two big releases this Diwali weekend. Ajay Devgn’s Shivaay and Karan Johar’s Ae Dil Hai Mushkil. The former is Ajay’s biggest film to date – a film on which he has invested nearly 2 years of his life. He’s the actor, the only recognisable face, the director and also the producer!
The other film marks the return of a celebrated director, who gave the industry three stars through his 2012 film ‘Student Of The Year’.
It’s been the most controversial clash the industry has seen, yet come Friday morning, it’s the audience verdict that’s going to be supreme. Nothing else matters, except the opinion of the paying public.
Factors in favour of Shivaay:
- The well-received first trailer.
- Scores over the competition when it comes to scale and visual appeal.
- Action will be a major draw for the single-screen audience.
- Ajay returns more than a year after his last film ‘Drishyam’, which was very well received.
Factors against Shivaay:
- A big question mark over Ajay Devgn the director.
- Poor response to all the promos after the first trailer.
Factors in favour of ADHM:
- Formidable star cast – Ranbir Kapoor, Anushka Sharma and Aishwarya Rai Bachchan.
- Karan Johar as director (adds tremendous value in India, huge factor overseas)
- Chartbuster music, one of the best music albums of 2016.
- Trailer received mixed response, but the remaining promos have generated interest.
Factors against ADHM
- Ranbir Kapoor’s lean run – his last 4 films have flopped.
- Limited appeal at smaller centres.
One factor that’s against both films is the fact that the audience expect a ‘fun popcorn entertainer’ during Diwali and both films don’t exactly fall in that category. This could also be the reason why the hype that we usually associate with Diwali films is missing this time around.
IndicineFBO: We expect ‘Ae Dil Hai Mushkil’ to collect Rs 12.4 crore, the advance booking is solid and the film will be less affected by the ‘Pre-Diwali’ period. Since it’s a film that’s expected to perform better at urban centres, the higher ticket prices should help the film edge out ‘Shivaay’ on the first day.
The response to the advance booking of ‘Shivaay’ has been underwhelming for such a big film, but the true test will come Monday onwards. We expect ‘Shivaay’ to collect 10.7 crore on Day 1.
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|Airlift||10.9||12.35||+ 13%, Accurate|
|Kya Kool Hai Hum 3||9.3||8.15||- 12%, Accurate|
|Mastizaade||6.1||5.59||- 8%, Accurate|
|Saala Khadoos||2.2||2.19||0%, Accurate|
|Ghayal Once Again||6.4||7.2||+ 12%, Accurate|
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|Baaghi||9.4||11.94||+ 27%, Inaccurate|
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|Kahaani 2||4.5||4.25||-5%, Accurate|