Dangal IndicineLBO Lifetime Box Office Prediction

Films that go on to collect 250 crore plus at the box office are very difficult to predict, because even a single holiday or the boost which Christmas and New year give through the 7-10 days – can make a big difference to the final total.

Aamir Khan’s Dangal was proving to be even more difficult to predict because the film isn’t an out-and-out commercial entertainer, it did not have those extra holidays for Christmas or New Year (both fall on the weekly Sunday holiday this year) and there weren’t too many clues in the trend in the first two days.

It was expected to be more for the classes (city audience at multiplexes) than the masses.

But the unexpected big jump on Sunday and the growth at mass-centres too, could be indicators that the film is heading towards a long and successful run at the box office. Even though the presentation is not commercial or colourful, Dangal is strong on humour (first half) and emotion (second half). From the various reports that we have been getting from exhibitors across the country, the film has something in it for every section of the audience – even the older generation is coming out to watch the film.

The other factor is ‘tax free’ status which will give a boost to the ‘net collections’. More states could come forward to give the film tax exemption. The list which started with Uttar Pradesh, now has grown to 4 states – including Uttarakhand, Chattisgarh and Haryana. If a few other states join the list, then Dangal will find it much easier to put up a big lifetime total. (Tax exemption also helps reduce ticket prices, which brings in more audience to theatres.. thereby increasing the collections of the film)

So when so many factors are involved, including tax exemption, it’s difficult to put a single number to a film that has performed extraordinarily well in the first weekend – but has to maintain its high level of business for the next 10 days to challenge some of the biggest grosser.

We are going with 315 crore as the lifetime collections of Aamir Khan’s Dangal. If a total in this range is achieved, it will be history in the making as it would be the first film to do so without a full national holiday. Dangal could also become the first film without a popular leading lady to cross the 300 crore mark.

Factors in favour of Dangal

  • Tax exemption in several states
  • 3 open weeks before Ok Jaanu and nearly 5 open weeks before Raees and Kaabil
  • Extraordinary word-of-mouth, smaller centres have shown good growth too
  • The Aamir Khan brand will bring in more people to theatres
  • Strong appeal towards the family audience, key for major grossers
  • Outstanding first weekend
  • Christmas – New Year period is good for film business

Factors against Dangal

  • No major holidays.
  • Whether the film will get repeat-viewers will remain a big question.

That’s our last LBO prediction of the year. Even if we do not get Dangal right, it’s been a good year for IndicineLBO.

MovieWord of MouthPredictionActual
Collection
DifferenceResult
DilwaleMixed145 cr148 cr2%Accurate
Bajirao MastaniExtremely Positive168 cr187 cr12%Accurate
WazirMixed35 cr40 cr14%Accurate
AirliftPositive143 cr127 cr11%Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3Negative34 cr31 cr8%Accurate
MastizaadeMixed29 cr32 cr10%Accurate
Saala KhadoosNegative16 cr14 cr12%Accurate
Ghayal Once AgainMixed39 cr36 cr*8%Accurate
Sanam ReMixed28 cr29 cr3%Accurate
FitoorExtremely Negative23 cr19 cr17%Inaccurate
NeerjaPositive70 cr74 cr6%Accurate
Teraa SurroorNegative12 cr13 cr8%Accurate
Rocky HandsomeNegative26 cr25 cr4%Accurate
Jai GangaajalNegative33 cr32 cr3%Accurate
Kapoor & SonsPositive66 cr72 cr9%Accurate
Ki And KaPositive54 cr53 cr2%Accurate
FanNegative95 cr84 cr11%Accurate
BaaghiPositive84 cr75 cr11%Accurate
AzharNegative35 cr33 cr5%Accurate
SarabjitMixed26 cr28 cr7%Accurate
Housefull 3Mixed105 cr107 cr2%Accurate
Udta PunjabMixed72 cr59 cr18%Inaccurate
SultanPositive305 cr302 cr1%Accurate
DishoomMixed62 cr69 cr11%Accurate
Mohenjo DaroNegative54 cr59 cr9%Accurate
RustomPositive102 cr126 cr23%Inaccurate
Happy Bhag JayegiMixed21 cr26 cr24%Inaccurate
A Flying JattNegative33 cr37 cr12%Accurate
AkiraMixed27 cr28 cr3%Accurate
Baar Baar DekhoNegative38 cr31 cr18%Inaccurate
Raaz RebootNegative28 cr27 cr3%Accurate
PinkPositive54 cr65 cr20%Inaccurate
M S Dhoni biopicMixed138 cr133 cr4%Accurate
MirzyaNegative9 cr10 cr11%Accurate
ShivaayMixed95 cr96 cr1%Accurate
Ae Dil Hai MushkilMixed102 cr111 cr9%Accurate
Rock On 2Negative13 cr10 cr23%Inaccurate
Force 2Mixed35 cr34 cr3%Accurate
Dear ZindagiPositive65 cr66 cr1%Accurate
BefikreNegative58 cr60 cr3%Accurate
DangalPending315 cr---
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95 Comments

  • Have been following indicine from last 3-4 years, never seen that a big films like Dangal don’t having separate article on first day,second day and third day early estimate. I don’t know why this site is so against Aamir khan whenever his film releases, they skipped dhoom 3 related news before it released, they were the first one to questioned Aamir for pk increase rates, they declared Kick as highest grosser of the year that time on PK’s opening day.

    Now with Dangal, they put their LBO in twitter on its opening day, not a single article on midnight for early estimate. They were the only site who are behaving like a non-Aamir fan talking about ” this time no Hirani and Dhoom factor” and all.
    Whether Sultan or Dangal remain HGOTY is a different thing and not in my hand. I loved both these movies and have no problem with any one being at top. But the way indicine behaving with a big movie like Dangal, its definitely hurts to its regular follower.

    But must admit that they are best in bollywood news and as an Aamir fans I enjoy whenever Aamir surprised their prediction with his films.




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    • @SKY, we have been putting ‘expectation’ and estimates early evening itself. We said the opening level was 26-27 crore and it could go up by around 10% depending on evening shows. We put an article on Saturday that business could touch 35 crore. All articles are on the site.

      Sunday collections surprised us, it looked like 38 crore from multiplex business but smaller centres had shown big growth too. People here do not understand early estimate. Big films like these can always go 10% up or down when the final totals come in (even those are estimates), but readers here do not understand this and it gets difficult to explain.




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  • Dangal is always been a biggest test for Aamir career so far due to various reasons.
    His earlier flicks like Ghajini was masala movie with chartbuster music with first day Holiday.
    3 Idiots music were also popular along with Raju Hirani as director
    D3 was riding on franchise value other than Aamir Brand
    PK also had Raju Hirani factor

    Now looks what has been against with Dangal
    1. Neither Masala film nor have established/known director.
    2. The uniqueness of wrestling movie was taken away with Salman blockbuster Sultan’s
    3. No popular heroine
    4. No Chartbuster Music
    5. Demonetisation
    6. Lack of entertainment value from promos
    7. Aamir image has came down drastically after Intolerance remarks
    8. Movie has normal weekend as Christmas falls on sunday though there is still benefit of holiday but it reduced.

    Positive Factor:
    Aamir khan and his first film in two years.

    Result-
    Aamir Khan has beaten all the above mentioned hurdles and smashed all time first weekend record single handedly. Achieved highest single day ever on Sunday and highest weekend record.

    From Ghajini to Dangal, one thing remain common along with Aamir khan as a hero that All these film had achieved highest single day collection on its first Sunday. No other actor has done this in recent time with every festive release and these are the records which accepted by trade not created by producer by own.

    As Dangal title track said “Bhed ki hahakar k badle sher ki ek dahad h pyare Dangal Dangal”

    And when lions roars, no one can challenge him. Aamir is boxoffice lion without any doubt.

    Salute sir.




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  • Even commercial masala films fail to cross 100 crore in its opening weekend and here Aamir’s non commercial film has crossed 100 crore in its first weekend. Hatsoff!




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  • EVERYONE
    MARK MY WORDS..
    .
    BOYCOTT Raees its all about a terrorist Abdul Latif & Pak Actress Mahira Khan. . All indian watch #KAABIL and make it cross #200cr.

    #dangal life time callection 310 – 360
    # once again amir break all record..




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  • Loved the line “Even if we do not get Dangal right, it’s been a good year for IndicineLBO”.

    Why not when your LBO indicate 265cr on first day, the above line justified your wrong prediction.

    Anyways 315cr seems to be more realistic prediction and if Dangal get that figure that will huge for a movie which has only Aamir as a brand.
    Whatever Kudos to the Team Dangal, they were outstanding in each and every department and its their success.

    Many critics and people questions the unnecessary dramatic twist in the climax but that was important for a movie to please the masses. That’s dramatic portion is masterstroke as a audience point of view. Dangal rocks




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  • @sky

    I agree with your sentiment but atleast this yr indicine have not been as openly negative about an Aamir film as there were in 2013 when they posted that bakwaas about 900rs ticket prices….!

    Still this yr they been less eager to being negative which is a welcomed change…!




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  • Salman khan is nothing in front of amir Khan ..PRDP did only 175(BOI) on diwali & jai ho only 112 on non Holiday Shows Where He stands when Compare 2 Amir .




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  • This is expected from Aamir Khan, always.

    Not to hurt anyone, I seriously feel bad for Shahrukh Khan. Bande ki kuch bhi film audience ko hajam nahi ho rahi hain. But we can’t blame the audience. Everytime he does out of the box movies (ex: Ra-one, fan), the fate is sealed on the first day itself. And same thing goes for his comfort zone movies (ex: almost all). They go just part 100 Crores. I actually wish his defensive fans would go out and watch his movies. If atleast 50% of you guys make it to the theater, 200 crores is given for his movies. Honestly, I don’t see srk’s movies earning 300 in the near future. AND I MEAN IT. The guys has fans, but i question their loyalties.




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  • @Navin thanks mate.

    @Indicine I agree but you don’t put even a separate article for Dangal weekend prediction too. Earlier you guys were publishing the separate articles for first three day occupancy for event films. Yesterday you have only one article for Dangal which covered saturday collection, and sunday morning occupancy. You don’t even put a update in that article for evening shows and that is when it supposed to be highest ever. Better reason only you knows.




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  • This yr though predicting an Aamir Khans films lifetime total has been very very difficult…!

    For PK n Dhoom 3 I was hugely optimistic but with Dangal its a case of being conservative n then prudent by still going 10% lower…!

    Difficult to know how audiences will behave but having seen the movie twice now I think it will get repeat audiences at the metros more so than the massareasbit I might be wrong… Well I hope Im wrong…




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