Films that go on to collect 250 crore plus at the box office are very difficult to predict, because even a single holiday or the boost which Christmas and New year give through the 7-10 days – can make a big difference to the final total.
Aamir Khan’s Dangal was proving to be even more difficult to predict because the film isn’t an out-and-out commercial entertainer, it did not have those extra holidays for Christmas or New Year (both fall on the weekly Sunday holiday this year) and there weren’t too many clues in the trend in the first two days.
It was expected to be more for the classes (city audience at multiplexes) than the masses.
But the unexpected big jump on Sunday and the growth at mass-centres too, could be indicators that the film is heading towards a long and successful run at the box office. Even though the presentation is not commercial or colourful, Dangal is strong on humour (first half) and emotion (second half). From the various reports that we have been getting from exhibitors across the country, the film has something in it for every section of the audience – even the older generation is coming out to watch the film.
The other factor is ‘tax free’ status which will give a boost to the ‘net collections’. More states could come forward to give the film tax exemption. The list which started with Uttar Pradesh, now has grown to 4 states – including Uttarakhand, Chattisgarh and Haryana. If a few other states join the list, then Dangal will find it much easier to put up a big lifetime total. (Tax exemption also helps reduce ticket prices, which brings in more audience to theatres.. thereby increasing the collections of the film)
So when so many factors are involved, including tax exemption, it’s difficult to put a single number to a film that has performed extraordinarily well in the first weekend – but has to maintain its high level of business for the next 10 days to challenge some of the biggest grosser.
We are going with 315 crore as the lifetime collections of Aamir Khan’s Dangal. If a total in this range is achieved, it will be history in the making as it would be the first film to do so without a full national holiday. Dangal could also become the first film without a popular leading lady to cross the 300 crore mark.
Factors in favour of Dangal
- Tax exemption in several states
- 3 open weeks before Ok Jaanu and nearly 5 open weeks before Raees and Kaabil
- Extraordinary word-of-mouth, smaller centres have shown good growth too
- The Aamir Khan brand will bring in more people to theatres
- Strong appeal towards the family audience, key for major grossers
- Outstanding first weekend
- Christmas – New Year period is good for film business
Factors against Dangal
- No major holidays.
- Whether the film will get repeat-viewers will remain a big question.
That’s our last LBO prediction of the year. Even if we do not get Dangal right, it’s been a good year for IndicineLBO.
|Movie||Word of Mouth||Prediction||Actual|
|Dilwale||Mixed||145 cr||148 cr||2%||Accurate|
|Bajirao Mastani||Extremely Positive||168 cr||187 cr||12%||Accurate|
|Wazir||Mixed||35 cr||40 cr||14%||Accurate|
|Airlift||Positive||143 cr||127 cr||11%||Accurate|
|Kya Kool Hai Hum 3||Negative||34 cr||31 cr||8%||Accurate|
|Mastizaade||Mixed||29 cr||32 cr||10%||Accurate|
|Saala Khadoos||Negative||16 cr||14 cr||12%||Accurate|
|Ghayal Once Again||Mixed||39 cr||36 cr*||8%||Accurate|
|Sanam Re||Mixed||28 cr||29 cr||3%||Accurate|
|Fitoor||Extremely Negative||23 cr||19 cr||17%||Inaccurate|
|Neerja||Positive||70 cr||74 cr||6%||Accurate|
|Teraa Surroor||Negative||12 cr||13 cr||8%||Accurate|
|Rocky Handsome||Negative||26 cr||25 cr||4%||Accurate|
|Jai Gangaajal||Negative||33 cr||32 cr||3%||Accurate|
|Kapoor & Sons||Positive||66 cr||72 cr||9%||Accurate|
|Ki And Ka||Positive||54 cr||53 cr||2%||Accurate|
|Fan||Negative||95 cr||84 cr||11%||Accurate|
|Baaghi||Positive||84 cr||75 cr||11%||Accurate|
|Azhar||Negative||35 cr||33 cr||5%||Accurate|
|Sarabjit||Mixed||26 cr||28 cr||7%||Accurate|
|Housefull 3||Mixed||105 cr||107 cr||2%||Accurate|
|Udta Punjab||Mixed||72 cr||59 cr||18%||Inaccurate|
|Sultan||Positive||305 cr||302 cr||1%||Accurate|
|Dishoom||Mixed||62 cr||69 cr||11%||Accurate|
|Mohenjo Daro||Negative||54 cr||59 cr||9%||Accurate|
|Rustom||Positive||102 cr||126 cr||23%||Inaccurate|
|Happy Bhag Jayegi||Mixed||21 cr||26 cr||24%||Inaccurate|
|A Flying Jatt||Negative||33 cr||37 cr||12%||Accurate|
|Akira||Mixed||27 cr||28 cr||3%||Accurate|
|Baar Baar Dekho||Negative||38 cr||31 cr||18%||Inaccurate|
|Raaz Reboot||Negative||28 cr||27 cr||3%||Accurate|
|Pink||Positive||54 cr||65 cr||20%||Inaccurate|
|M S Dhoni biopic||Mixed||138 cr||133 cr||4%||Accurate|
|Mirzya||Negative||9 cr||10 cr||11%||Accurate|
|Shivaay||Mixed||95 cr||96 cr||1%||Accurate|
|Ae Dil Hai Mushkil||Mixed||102 cr||111 cr||9%||Accurate|
|Rock On 2||Negative||13 cr||10 cr||23%||Inaccurate|
|Force 2||Mixed||35 cr||34 cr||3%||Accurate|
|Dear Zindagi||Positive||65 cr||66 cr||1%||Accurate|
|Befikre||Negative||58 cr||60 cr||3%||Accurate|