Box Office Predictions: 2013 (Part 1)

Predicting the Box Office is a very tricky game. Not many understand the trade and Box Office patterns. And with the rapid increase in multiplex screens across the country, predicting the opening and lifetime business of films have become even more difficult. I will do just that. I won’t be right all the time. It won’t come off all the time but ah, the temptation to play the tricky game is too big to resist.

I will predict the lifetime India business of 20 films slated to release in 2013 (in 2 parts). The 20 films were chosen by me randomly. No scientific research was conducted, to be clear. I did make sure that all the big budget films of 2012 will have their Box Office business predicted. Not much is known about most of the films. The first look isn’t out for most of the films. I have predicted the business looking at the buzz for the films, the past record of the actors and directors, and for some films, I just went with my gut. So here we go.

Matru Ki Bijlee Ka MandolaMatru Ki Bijlee Ka Mandola (Release: 11th January 2013)

The early trailers for the film haven’t generated much buzz and the music hasn’t been picked up by the masses (or the classes). The choice of someone like Imran Khan as a Haryanvi tough guy has baffled a lot of people. The highest grossing Vishal Bharadwaj film is Kaminey (42cr) and Matru will do well to cross it. I, for one, think it will just about manage to cross it.

Box office Prediction: 45 crore

 

Race 2Race 2 (Release: 25th January 2013)

This is the sequel to the highly successful Race (2009). The movie has good buzz about it thanks to the well received first trailer. The music is yet to release and going by the first film’s music and Pritam’s recent track record, this film should boast of a fine soundtrack too. John Abraham, Deepika Padukone and Jacqueline have joined Saif Ali Khan and Anil Kapoor for this film. Last year Agneepath broke the opening day record on 26th January and this year too 26th January will be huge. I think Race 2 will be 2013’s first 100cr film.

Box office Prediction: 105 crore

 

Special ChabbisSpecial Chabbis (Release: 8th February)

Neeraj Pandey delivered the critically acclaimed ‘A Wednesday’ and everybody in Bollywood was forced to take note of this budding director. Special Chabbis is a heist film set in 80s. The first trailer was released recently and has lapped up universal praise. Still, the film seems a bit too nićhe to join the 100cr club (people thought the same about Barfi too). I feel 100cr would be too steep a target for the film.

Prediction: 80 crore

 

HimmatwalaHimmatwala (Release: 29th March)

Sajid Khan is the man with the ‘midas touch’. Inspite of the critics lambasting his films, they still went on to earn huge money. Sajid is teaming up with Ajay Devgn for the first time. Tamil starlet Tamannah is debuting in Hindi cinema with this film. Going by the previous ‘Himmatwala’ and the poster which has been out for quite sometime, it looks like an out-and-out masala films. The underperformance of Khiladi 786 has put the future of the ‘masala’ genre in jeopardy but Himmatwala will sail through thanks to a favourable release date. Will cross 100cr.

Prediction: 110 crore

 

Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani (Release: 31st May)

Ranbir Kapoor joined the 100cr club in 2012 thanks to Barfi. The performance of Barfi, highlights the growing Box office pedigree of this young actor. Ayan Mukerji (who previously directed Wake Up Sid) is directing this ambitious road film. Deepika will add some added star power to the film. Also, Pritam is giving the music for this film (and according to sources, the album has turned out really well). I think YJHD will be Ranbir’s second successive 100cr film.

Prediction: 105 crore

 

BossBoss (Release: 31st May or 7th June)

Anthony D’souza is back after the debacle of ‘Blue’. This time he is directing the Hindi remake of the Malayalam Blockbuster Pokkiri Raja. D’souza chose to direct this film as it looks safe thanks to the ‘masala’ and ‘remake’ angles associated with it, I personally think that the release date will affect the film’s box office chances. There are too many films releasing around the same time. The Blue debacle is still on everybody’s mind and that is keeping the buzz low for this film.

Prediction: 75 crore

 

LooteraLootera (Release: 5th July)

This 50cr film set in pre-Independece Bengal has generated quite a buzz for itself because of the fact that Vikramaditya Motwane is directing this Epic romance. Even though 50cr seems like too high a budget for a film starring Ranvir Singh, the producers (Ekta Kapoor and Anurag Kashyap) need to be applauded for making a film so grand. I have high hopes from Lootera (Udaan was a masterpiece) but to be honest, it’s box office potential is limited.

Prediction: 60 crore

 

Phata Poster Nikla HeroPhata Poster Nikla Hero (Release: 23rd August)

Shahid Kapur has been going through a rough patch lately with all of his films failing miserably at the box office, but trade pundits are expecting his fortunes to turn around after PPNH. Raj Kumar Santoshi is directing this romantic comedy. Ileana D’cruz has signed on to play the female lead. The last time Mr. Santoshi directed a young actor in a romantic comedy (Ajay Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani), it went on to become a Super Hit. While I don’t think this will be a Super hit, it won’t be a whitewash either.

Prediction: 50 crore

 

Chennai ExpressChennai Express (Release: Not confirmed)

Last 3 films directed by Rohit Shetty went on to cross the 100cr mark. Last 3 films in which Shah Rukh Khan starred have also touched the 100cr mark. So when two such stalwarts come together to make a film, 100cr is too small a target. This is SRK’s first masala film and first film with Deepika Padukone, since Om Shanti Om. Chennai Express won’t release on a National holiday and has to be content with a Non-holiday opening day (unless they clash it with another film, which is highly unlikely). A 50cr+ opening weekend is almost certain regardless of the release date. Also, Rohit Shetty seems very confident about this film’s box office potential.

Prediction: 145 crore

 

Dhoom 3Dhoom 3 (Release: 25th December)

This is ‘the’ biggie of the year. Buzz for this film is already at very high levels because of the ‘Dhoom’ franchise and the involvement of Superstars like Aamir Khan and Katrina Kaif. People have come to expect International quality stunts for this and I am sure this film won’t be an exception. It releases on one of the most profitable days of the year and opening records are expected to be shattered. Regardless of the quality of the content, Dhoom 3 is almost certain to earn more than 170cr. (Trivia: The last time an Aamir Khan film released on Christmas, it earned 202cr)

Prediction: 195 crore

If you disagree with my predictions, post your own predictions in the comments below. Trust me, predicting Box Office is fun. Happy predicting and see you at the movies!

Article by Zayden (tweets @ManvsHandle)

 

Comments

Dipanshu Dhingra:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:01 am)

@indicine Boss prediction is totally wrong 75 crore
boss is out n out action film
My prediction 150 cr
spcl chabbis 100 cr+

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niks:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:02 am)

Dhoom 3 will go past 195 crore …though whatever predictions have u made make pretty sense. Dhoom 3 with the additional IMAX screens and screen count might just go past 200 crore bcoz with Aamir and YRF coming together one thing is pretty sure that marketing will be all time high. Releasing a logo that 2 exactly a year ago says everything. Plus Aditya chopra believes in spending money so marketing budget will be high. Trailer will actually give a clear picture but my own view Krissh 3 V/s Dhoom 3 this year !

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star:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:03 am)

Agree with you completely but for Chennai Express.. I think this film has the potential to cross 150 Cr and if they are able to find a holiday date with no clashes then it could be much more..

Recently heard a crew member from CE saying it is Rohit’s best film till date with comic scenes that will cause a stomach ache by laughing madly.. In that case, even children will be attracted to it and hence it should easily do 150 Cr+.

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akash:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:05 am)

i think salman khan dominate this year due to his unmagicable fan following.salman khan k fans sirf salman ki film dekhate hai.thats why they can go to other film.

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hrithik haterz:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:09 am)

this year dhoom3 vs ce vs salman’s next….one so called hr fans think about k3 which mark my words be another kites and may cross guzarish….the greek dog

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maroonporsche:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:11 am)

Race 2 100 crore????????

I gave up on Saif after Agent Vinod. Race 2 has very bekhaar music. No one from that film is a real crowd puller.

Does anyone know Salman’s next film who is the girl what is the story the banner the director will it even come out in 2013?

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NVS:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:12 am)

Though rohit shetty films have consistently managed 100 crores, they havent gone beyond 115 crores. Srk’s most hyped, most anticipated movie ever -- jthj on a diwali release managed 120 crores(yes competed with sos, but even without competition it wouldnt have collected more than 135 crore because of the poor content and outright rejection by the masses). So i think your 145 crores prediction for ‘chennai express’ is tad too ambitious and more so because it is a non-holiday release, srk doing masala will not be accepted by the masses and his fans ‘crap’ the masala movies, and more importantly and sadly for srk fans, i feel the typical masala genre has been over exploited and the audiences have already indicated that they are getting tired of these movies(k 786 was a out & out desi masala which had a potential of 125 crores, but it underperformed by as much as 50% and dabaang 2, the biggest & best desi masala movie of recent times has also underperformed by atleast 25 crores till now, as it was running hot contender for the grand 200 crore club, but now it seems it will end up at 165-177 crores). And considering such more factors in future, the most CE could do is 135 crores in india & 55 crores overseas.

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raj:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:14 am)

srk is biggest hatest star of bollywood .uski fim to non holiday pe 100 cr bhi cross nahi karegi.krish 3 and dhoom3 is chances of biggest hit of the year.because it is biggest brand.not become due to amir and hrutik stardom.salman make highest groser of the year due to his stardom.

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Rajesh:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:16 am)

Best luck 4 all film nd they definately collect above expectation

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boss:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:25 am)

yes , akash and raj you are right i also feel that

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N V S:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:31 am)

Race 2, if content is very good should be able to do 100 crores, i would predict boss to do more than 75 crores unless the audiences totally reject it, so 90-120 crores cant be ruled out. Dhoom3 with even average content will atleast do 150+, but if the content is very good(that’s what i expect), 200+ crores shouldnt really be a problem for the super combination..

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srgy:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:33 am)

salman two flims will big hit agine this year.

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vinay:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:33 am)

Chennai Express is the only film i gonna watch…

SRK…..the name’s enough….

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pramod:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:34 am)

dhoom 2 don’t have strong content..then also its super hit..aamir is in dhoom 3..so,i think content is far better than dhoom 1 and 2..
easily it will break 3 idiots record..

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Harsh:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:35 am)

What about KRRISH 3

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TRUTH:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:41 am)

1.Race 2 100cr
2.Abcd 110cr
3.boss 105cr
4.himmatwala 95cr
5.chennai ex 120cr or 170cr
6.d3 175cr
7.mkbkm 60cr
8.nautanki saala 70cr
9.ganchakkar 80cr
10.shootout at wadala 95cr

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Aamir Srk Salman:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:44 am)

Chennai express 200+ sure
hey haters listen Srks romantic boring movie jthj earn 123cr! Then his masala movies can earn how much u know that :)

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boss:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:45 am)

indicine always underestimates akshay movies
last year also they did the same thing
special26 is like ohmygod it will do110cr bussiness
boss will collect more thanrr
i seen the malayalam movie it is awesome

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pramod:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:47 am)

dhoom 3 200+
krish 3 175+
chenni exp 150+
salman next 150+

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abhishek:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:51 am)

hey @indicine race was 2008 release not a 2009 release…check your facts before publishing… the battle for top spot this year will be between k3 and d3 as both will have supportive festival release..then CE and radhe (if releases)

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sanjeev:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:52 am)

@star: but I heard from a crew member of CE that it is the worst movie of Rohit Shetty (even worse than Sunday). He said it can earn around 120 crores only due to huge star power of srk.

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boss:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:53 am)

special26 may not take record breaking opening
but it will collect much higher than what u predicted

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sanjeev:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:55 am)

@maroonporsche: salman’s next movie is Radhey (not a fixed title) ; directed by sohail khan and produced by sohail khan productions. Actress is likely to be Diana Penty.

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The undertaker:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:56 am)

Kick -- 170 -- 220 crores
radhe -- 180-230 crores
dhoom 3 -- 160-200 c
krrish 3 -140-170 c
boss -110-140 c
himmatwala -- 100- 130 crores
cheap express -- 4- 6 crores
happy new year -- 1- 3 crores.

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Jan Mohammad:  (January 3, 2013 at 10:57 am)

Good prediction by Indicine. I think Chennai Express won’t cross 140 cr in India because of a SRK masala film. SRK suits pretty well for romance and cool action films(like Don, Don2, Main Hoon Na). SRK in a masala film is miserable.

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