Predicting the Box Office is a very tricky game. Not many understand the trade and Box Office patterns. And with the rapid increase in multiplex screens across the country, predicting the opening and lifetime business of films have become even more difficult. I will do just that. I won’t be right all the time. It won’t come off all the time but ah, the temptation to play the tricky game is too big to resist.
I will predict the lifetime India business of 20 films slated to release in 2013 (in 2 parts). The 20 films were chosen by me randomly. No scientific research was conducted, to be clear. I did make sure that all the big budget films of 2012 will have their Box Office business predicted. Not much is known about most of the films. The first look isn’t out for most of the films. I have predicted the business looking at the buzz for the films, the past record of the actors and directors, and for some films, I just went with my gut. So here we go.
The early trailers for the film haven’t generated much buzz and the music hasn’t been picked up by the masses (or the classes). The choice of someone like Imran Khan as a Haryanvi tough guy has baffled a lot of people. The highest grossing Vishal Bharadwaj film is Kaminey (42cr) and Matru will do well to cross it. I, for one, think it will just about manage to cross it.
Box office Prediction: 45 crore
This is the sequel to the highly successful Race (2009). The movie has good buzz about it thanks to the well received first trailer. The music is yet to release and going by the first film’s music and Pritam’s recent track record, this film should boast of a fine soundtrack too. John Abraham, Deepika Padukone and Jacqueline have joined Saif Ali Khan and Anil Kapoor for this film. Last year Agneepath broke the opening day record on 26th January and this year too 26th January will be huge. I think Race 2 will be 2013’s first 100cr film.
Box office Prediction: 105 crore
Neeraj Pandey delivered the critically acclaimed ‘A Wednesday’ and everybody in Bollywood was forced to take note of this budding director. Special Chabbis is a heist film set in 80s. The first trailer was released recently and has lapped up universal praise. Still, the film seems a bit too nićhe to join the 100cr club (people thought the same about Barfi too). I feel 100cr would be too steep a target for the film.
Prediction: 80 crore
Sajid Khan is the man with the ‘midas touch’. Inspite of the critics lambasting his films, they still went on to earn huge money. Sajid is teaming up with Ajay Devgn for the first time. Tamil starlet Tamannah is debuting in Hindi cinema with this film. Going by the previous ‘Himmatwala’ and the poster which has been out for quite sometime, it looks like an out-and-out masala films. The underperformance of Khiladi 786 has put the future of the ‘masala’ genre in jeopardy but Himmatwala will sail through thanks to a favourable release date. Will cross 100cr.
Prediction: 110 crore
Ranbir Kapoor joined the 100cr club in 2012 thanks to Barfi. The performance of Barfi, highlights the growing Box office pedigree of this young actor. Ayan Mukerji (who previously directed Wake Up Sid) is directing this ambitious road film. Deepika will add some added star power to the film. Also, Pritam is giving the music for this film (and according to sources, the album has turned out really well). I think YJHD will be Ranbir’s second successive 100cr film.
Prediction: 105 crore
Anthony D’souza is back after the debacle of ‘Blue’. This time he is directing the Hindi remake of the Malayalam Blockbuster Pokkiri Raja. D’souza chose to direct this film as it looks safe thanks to the ‘masala’ and ‘remake’ angles associated with it, I personally think that the release date will affect the film’s box office chances. There are too many films releasing around the same time. The Blue debacle is still on everybody’s mind and that is keeping the buzz low for this film.
Prediction: 75 crore
This 50cr film set in pre-Independece Bengal has generated quite a buzz for itself because of the fact that Vikramaditya Motwane is directing this Epic romance. Even though 50cr seems like too high a budget for a film starring Ranvir Singh, the producers (Ekta Kapoor and Anurag Kashyap) need to be applauded for making a film so grand. I have high hopes from Lootera (Udaan was a masterpiece) but to be honest, it’s box office potential is limited.
Prediction: 60 crore
Shahid Kapur has been going through a rough patch lately with all of his films failing miserably at the box office, but trade pundits are expecting his fortunes to turn around after PPNH. Raj Kumar Santoshi is directing this romantic comedy. Ileana D’cruz has signed on to play the female lead. The last time Mr. Santoshi directed a young actor in a romantic comedy (Ajay Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani), it went on to become a Super Hit. While I don’t think this will be a Super hit, it won’t be a whitewash either.
Prediction: 50 crore
Last 3 films directed by Rohit Shetty went on to cross the 100cr mark. Last 3 films in which Shah Rukh Khan starred have also touched the 100cr mark. So when two such stalwarts come together to make a film, 100cr is too small a target. This is SRK’s first masala film and first film with Deepika Padukone, since Om Shanti Om. Chennai Express won’t release on a National holiday and has to be content with a Non-holiday opening day (unless they clash it with another film, which is highly unlikely). A 50cr+ opening weekend is almost certain regardless of the release date. Also, Rohit Shetty seems very confident about this film’s box office potential.
Prediction: 145 crore
This is ‘the’ biggie of the year. Buzz for this film is already at very high levels because of the ‘Dhoom’ franchise and the involvement of Superstars like Aamir Khan and Katrina Kaif. People have come to expect International quality stunts for this and I am sure this film won’t be an exception. It releases on one of the most profitable days of the year and opening records are expected to be shattered. Regardless of the quality of the content, Dhoom 3 is almost certain to earn more than 170cr. (Trivia: The last time an Aamir Khan film released on Christmas, it earned 202cr)
Prediction: 195 crore
If you disagree with my predictions, post your own predictions in the comments below. Trust me, predicting Box Office is fun. Happy predicting and see you at the movies!
Article by Zayden (tweets @ManvsHandle)