AskIndicine: QnA at 5PM

Q. Which upcoming films for the remainder of 2017 can have a better opening day than Tubelight?

A. The best bet would be ‘Tiger Zinda Hai’, which is certain to cross 20 crore on Day 1. ‘Jab Harry Met Sejal’ has a chance, but from the promos that we’ve seen so far, neither are the reports positive nor are the chances of a 20 crore plus opening very high.

Q. How important will be the opening day and weekend of Tiger Zinda Hai for Salman Khan to have a solo Eid release next year..Just by looking at the numbers of Tubelight, will anyone announce their film for next Eid and opt for a clash with Salman Khan?

A. It’s highly unlikely that anyone would want to announce their film against what remains the year’s biggest release ‘Tiger Zinda Hai’. It’s very different from ‘Tubelight’ and even negative reviews from critics may not affect the box office prospects of ‘Tiger Zinda Hai’ like it did for ‘Tubelight’. And although a good trailer will be important, ‘Tiger Zinda Hai’ will be catering to Salman’s core fanbase at mass centres. They might give a movie like ‘Tubelight’ a miss, but will come out in big numbers for the action-entertainer ‘Tiger Zinda Hai’.

Q. Do you think makers of Jab Harry met Sejal makers did a good job by preponing the film by one week?Will it has a chance to cross 25cr on 1st day?Can JHMS cross 200cr in india considering the fact that now it has a one open week & full of holidays 2nd week?

A. Decision to move ‘Jab Harry Met Sejal’ could prove to be a good one, because the film has one open week at the box office. But from Shah Rukh Khan’s point-of-view, it has sent out a very wrong message. The very fact that he was willing to give up on a holiday release to avert a clash, put his 2018 Christmas date at risk. A big film might / will sense this weakness and announce their film for Christmas, expecting Shah Rukh to move. As for 25 crore Day 1 and 200 crore lifetime, we do not want to sound overly negative, but the idea to release mini trailers hasn’t worked. It’s looking like a very niche ‘high society / urban’ film and from the survey we did this weekend, less than 15% of the family audience said they would be wanting to watch it in theatres. They need to put out a good trailer and the music album has to click.

Q. Indicine did Tubelight prove that NO one in bigger than the film itself? As arguably the biggest superstar (right now) failed to bring audiences to theatre alone on the strength of his stardom?

A. A 20-crore start isn’t outright bad, very few stars get these sort of numbers even for their biggest of films. It only looks mediocre when compared to the high standards that Salman has set over the years and the high costs for which the film was sold – expecting it to be another Bajrangi Bhaijaan. It has just come at a wrong time, when business has seen a drastic change post the success of Bahubali 2.

As for ‘no one is bigger than the film’ it’s certainly true – a good trailer and commercial massy elements are absolutely essential, even for a Salman Khan film. His fans want to see him as a hero, they don’t want to see him play the underdog and cry throughout. You can’t make Rajnikanth cry throughout the film in the south, the film will be rejected, the fans won’t like it. One failure doesn’t change anything. It didn’t change for SRK after FAN, Aamir after Talaash, Hrithik after Mohenjo Daro or Akshay after numerous setbacks. Let’s not take credit away from what has been one of the best runs the industry has ever seen. 6-7 Eid blockbusters, many of them ‘mediocre’ films perception wise, but were lapped up and carried by the masses, because they offered entertainment value. It’s almost impossible to maintain that level, one failure was due.

Q. Why Tubelight failed? Even Dangal had low pre release buzz

A. We’ve got to understand that expectations from Aamir and Salman films are very different. Brand Aamir is all about the trust that the audience has in his films. The contribution from Aamir in Dangal isn’t just restricted to his acting, but he works closely on the script, casting, editing etc. He ensures that his films meet the high standards that we’ve come to expect out of him, unless it’s a commercially safe film like Dhoom 3. On the other hand, Salman films are all about action, whistles, heroism, larger than life.. even Bajrangi Bhaijaan had those moments. Tubelight didn’t and his core fanbase weren’t interested. Simple as that. Wrong film to release during a festival like Eid.

Q. As Tubelight looks like a average film ? Will someone still dare to challenge the dates of Salman’s Films ?

A. Will depend on Tiger Zinda Hai. If that films opens upto Salman Khan standards, all will be well again. The aura that he commanded, especially during Eid which had become like his fortress, has been broken. But to challenge his commercial films during Eid, will still be a mighty task for anyone in the industry – barring Aamir Khan and his classics. The film with Remo D’Souza, however, looks risky. He’s had a few successful films but he isn’t a good director.

Q. How is the response to jab harry met Sejal mini trails n the first song ? Will it be able to pull off opening of 25 crore ?

A. From the survey we did at theatres, at the ground level, the response isn’t positive. It needs a very good trailer to get anywhere close to 25 crore.

Q. What do You think srk was Thinking while signing “Jab Harry Met Sejal”? I mean, he is in his so-called “bad-phase” and he choose an off-beat film with that type of director, while he needed a pan-india film (probably we will have to wait till Anand L Rai film for that to happen). And what are your expectations from it? (I have full faith in your vision, as you were 100% right for Bahubali 2 opening and even the Tubelight opening) so what does your “sixth sense” say ?

A. No, we weren’t right for either Bahubali 2 or Tubelight. We didn’t expect Bahubali 2 to open at 40 crore, it was unpredictable. And Tubelight, even though the trailer didn’t work, we thought Salman’s pull would be good enough for a Kick level opening. We got ‘Tubelight’ wrong, but noone expected it to open so low.

About Jab Harry Met Sejal. Honestly, we aren’t convinced. It’s too niche for a Shah Rukh Khan film. The second promo, Indemnity Bond with sexual clauses, has received a horrendous response on the ground. The third promo has been liked better, but you expect more out of a SRK film – he has audience in smaller centres too, but they may not even understand this sort of a film. We’ll have to wait and see if they put out a good trailer. So far, the campaign itself hasn’t worked. The ‘mini trailer’ thing doesn’t work. It didn’t work both for Dear Zindagi or Meri Pyaari Bindu. It’s unfortunate, but Shah Rukh’s choice of films isn’t doing justice to his huge stardom and fan-following that reaches every nook and corner of the country. Let’s hope the trailer is better.

Q. Did Salman Khan downfall started with Tubelight?

A. Salman has seen times when the morning shows of his films didn’t even get 5% audience. He’s made one of the strongest comebacks the industry has seen, so one failure after a string of blockbusters, changes nothing.

Q. Do you think Tubelight will cross 200core and become hit?

A. Highly unlikely. It has to touch 30 crore on Eid holiday, but the reports simply aren’t in favour of the film.

Q. Indicine plz answer this I have read that Tubelight needs 135 cr to be a hit and in your prediction article you stated that even if it does 175 cr it’ll be below average / flop how could this be? Budget is 100 crs including marketing cost so why the breakeven is too high I know that distributors might make losses but even Dilwale made loss and you gave it average Raees did 120 and its above average how?

A. Tubelight was sold for 132 crore, domestic. It needed to collect upwards of 250 crore. It’ll fall well short. It’s a theatrical failure, both in terms of perception and heavy losses that the distributors will incur. Tubelight has shocked the trade, many sub-distributors will probably lose their life-savings over this. The producers have made a lot of money, but it would be nice of them to refund and make up for some losses – like Shah Rukh did after Dilwale debacle.

Q. You don’t answer my questions anyway.. still cant help but ask.. how come.. doing a movie be pro for Salman’s tubelight.. isnt any project a risk since you dont know wether it would work or not… and how come a major actor whose movies make 200 cr be at any risk along with a big director….a movie must be judged according to its finished product and not what went in pre production..thats what you said for dangal where in aamir went for transformation of his body…this is clearly double standards by indicine…cant you just accept tubelight is a bad movie and be honest… i cant help but think you try to cater to the fans of the actor so that your your viewership of the website does not fall… im sure many feel this way… would be brave of you if you answer this

A. Sorry, but your question isn’t clear. What’s your question exactly? If catering to the popularity of stars and traffic was the most important thing for us, we’d be praising everything that Shah Rukh does – because his films still gets us the highest traffic. Ours is just an opinion, it’s your choice to agree with it or not.

Q. PRDP was appreciated by masses and rejected by multiplex audience. But Tubelight has been rejected by both I think this is the reason for low collection?

A. Films like Prem Ratan Dhan Payo will always have an audience. The heartland of India loves these films, Barjatya films also have family audience. So that was good enough for PRDP. Tubelight was neither here nor there. It was thrashed by the critics, Salman chose a wrong film to take on the critics – the same statement during Tiger Zinda Hai would have made no difference. But since Tubelight lacked support from masses, the dependence on multiplex audience in cities was high. And it’s this section of audience that reads reviews. When was the last time trade analysts rejected a big film featuring a top star and called it a colossal disappointment? Films far worse have been rated 4 star or more.

Q. Indicine can u explain a director who has made brilliant films like Kabul express ,New York, Bajrangi, Phantom. How did he how terribly wrong this time?

A. Kabir didn’t fail as a director, but he failed as a writer in Tubelight. The writing was weak. Kabir is credited both for the story and screenplay, unlike his other films.

Q. Don’t you agree now that SRK is simply biggest when it comes to crowd-pulling?

A. One of the biggest, certainly. Is he the biggest currently? That’s debatable, because FAN released on a partial holiday and did 19 crore. Actual value reducing the holiday advantage would be 15 crore. All these are only perceptions. After averting the Sultan clash last year, Salman appeared invincible and much bigger. One below-par opening and the other two (Aamir and SRK) look bigger. If Jab Harry Met Sejal doesn’t get a huge initial, again questions will be raised. Dangal record looked safe for years, until a dubbed film like Bahubali 2 thrashed it. All this keeps changing and that’s what keeps the excitement of box office and big films going. What matters at the end of the day is the lifetime collections and if films are making money for the producers, distributors and industry in general.

Q. After watching response of Tubelight, can you say that Toilet Ek Prem Katha is carrying more buzz than Tubelight.

A. That’s not true. Toilet is unlikely to get to 20 crore on Day 1, atleast on real value. Because if the film gets tax exemption in BJP states as rumours suggest and the added GST benefit – we could get 20 crore plus net. But gross collections will certainly be lower and it’s a smaller film too. The trailer has received a good response, but predictions will change depending on how GST shapes up and tax exemption.

Q. Is the buzz for Jagga Jasoos increasing or its the same ?

A. It is increasing. The film might just about surprise at the box office. Currently, it looks like a 10 crore plus opening. Again, we’ll have to wait for GST implementation and see how it goes from there. Also, Ranbir is brilliant. He is single-handedly generating interest for the film.

Q. Do you think Tiger Zinda hai will get a solo release now after the debacle of tubelight ? And is it true that dabangg 3 is announced for EID 2018 ? Plz answer to my questions . Thank you :)

A. With the crunch for release dates, anything could happen, but Tiger Zinda Hai is too big a film for any other big film to challenge it. YRF is powerful too. We don’t see it happening. No official confirmation on Dabangg 3 for Eid.

Q. How big flop is Tubelight ?

A. Pretty major. The last hope is big growth on Eid, if that doesn’t come, the distributors will lose around 50 crore of their investment.

Q. Among the recently released Semi hits Raees, Kaabil and Tubelight, which film you think distributors lost more money on (in numbers please)?

A. Tubelight will be the biggest loss-making film if it wraps below 200.

Q. I don’t want ask anything except to know why there is no like and dislike option in your comment section anymore? May I know the reason.

A. The server load of the website was very high in the last couple of days. Our tech team said the thumbs up and down could be the reason, so we deactivated it. We’ll be putting it back again soon, maybe tomorrow. Thanks for your interest.

Q. Do you think toilet-EPK have the potential to cross 150cr if the film have very good WOM

A. We’d like to wait for GST to talk about numbers for those films. We could be providing gross numbers, so those numbers will obviously be much higher. In today’s terms, 150 crore is a possibility for Toilet if it’s a good movie. Tax exemption, especially in major states right from the first week, will obviously significantly improve its chances.

Q. How much releases Akshay has in 2018?

A. Akshay could even plan a film in June 2018 and release it in the same year. So no comments for now.

Q. SRK or Akshay? Who is doing better 2007-2017?

A. There’s no comparison. SRK has always worked at a much higher level, both in terms of opening and lifetime collections. His failures collect more than Akshay’s biggest grossers. Having said that, Akshay does smaller films, shoots them in record time and in recent times his films have been more profitable for all involved too. He is the backbone for exhibitors, if he can give four 100 crore grossers every year – there’s nothing like it. SRK films should ideally be collecting upwards of 200 crore every time, given the starts that he gets, but his last 3-4 films have fallen well short.

Q. Baadshaho teaser response and Box office predictions. Its almost a trailer.

A. Good response. It should take a 11-13 crore start, but we’ll wait for the trailer. And also GST.

Q. Mubarkan looks like a flop. Given the poor trailer and poor release date. Your take?

A. Trailer has received a mixed response. But it’s a Anees Bazmee film. If the film turns out to be entertaining, who knows? Release date is unfortunately crowded now. There’s Indu Sarkar on the same day. Jab Harry Met Sejal in the second week. Munna Michael the week before. When there’s such a heavy flow of releases, the audience will pick and choose. Only good films will work.

Q. Can 2.0 do Bahubali 2 in Hindi? If it receives positive response?

A. Highly unlikely. We’ve got to understand that Bahubali 2 was a combination of unique release circumstances. It was marketing and genius of Rajamouli at its best. A fantastic first film, a big question which everyone wanted to know. The answer in itself couldn’t be summed up in a tweet or Facebook post. Plus the first film reached out to a crazy section of audience on television. It was the first film that combined the might of the south with that of the rest of India. Robot 2.0 will undoubtedly be huge in the South, but it doesn’t quite tick all the boxes like Bahubali 2. Anil Thadani is distributing it, we’ll have to wait and see how they promote it, what the trailer looks like and how much value Akshay Kumar adds to the film.

Q. So SRK in a clash managed to do 20.42 crs & Salman in a solo + Eid Release just manages to cross 20 crs.. Even Fan did approx 19 crs which a niche film.. So isn’t SRK the biggest crowd puller as far as opening is concerned?

A. Comparing Raees directly to Tubelight isn’t a fair comparison, because Raees had some of the best trailer and promos for any film in recent times. Tubelight trailer was rejected. Also FAN did 19 crore on a partial holiday. End of it all, there’s no point comparing the two or three (Aamir included). They are all huge in their own way. Depending on film, all are capable of bumper opening. SRK and Salman are sheer fan-following and craze, Aamir’s stardom is different but he brings in bigger audience for his films. Let’s hope all three do well and take the industry forward in tough ‘Post-Bahubali’ times.

Q. Will GST affect the collection of Tubelight from the next week?

A. GST will prove to be beneficial for Hindi films. So there’s no question of the film getting affected. Barring a couple of circuits, the tax rates in two major circuits will come down. Although it’s a different question altogether whether or not Tubelight will continue flickering in its second week.

Q. You guys are doing wonderful job.. I like reading your detailed answers .. What you think is gone wrong with tubelight? Is it safe to say now that Amir khan is biggest star in the country..because Bahubali doesn’t happen everyday .. And seems like Amir will be the one next to cross 400 domestic .. He almost did it with Dangal.. Your say thanks

A. Aamir Khan is in a different league. It’s unfair to compare him with anyone else, because the quality of his films are well above the rest. Bajrangi Bhaijaan is Salman’s best and it became his highest grosser. Aamir has around 3-4 films of that level or better in the last 10 years. For SRK, we probably have to go back to Chak De India for that classic – which would easily be a 300 crore plus grosser today. It’s a lot in the Dangal space. All these guys have the stardom, what’s important is they continue to do the right films. Salman looked invincible until a week ago, but last Friday changed that perception. It could happen with Aamir too, because the expectations of his films are so high. It did with Talaash, which was a niche film. But Aamir was smart enough not to release it during a festive weekend. Salman pitched Tubelight for Eid, which with the advantage of hindsight, looks like a very poor decision now. Even Tubelight for Christmas was a better choice, because releasing Tiger Zinda Hai this weekend, would’ve kept his Eid aura intact.

Q. How is the response to the trailer of Toilet-Ek Prem Katha from both trade and public.

A. Both good.

Q. Will tubelights failure Impact jagga jasoos? It is first family entertainer to release after tubelight.

A. No, it won’t.

Q. Is Sohail bhai unlucky for Salman bhai?

A. Unfair to blame Sohail. Blame him for Jai Ho, not this.

That’s the end of QnA for today, 33 questions were answered in 3 hours. Thank you for joining us and apologies to those whose questions haven’t been answered.