AskIndicine: ADHM, Shivaay special QnA at 4PM

Two major films, Karan Johar’s Ae Dil Hai Mushkil and Ajay Devgn’s Shivaay, are scheduled to release in theatres this coming weekend. Both the films have been in news for all the wrong reasons and it’s also been the ugliest clash of all time.

Today’s QnA will be dedicated only to the two films. Post your questions in the comments section below.

Q. Can Shivaay score over Ae Dil Hai Mushkil?

A. If your question is about the first day collections, then we expect ‘Shivaay’ to be around 5% ahead of ‘Ae Dil Hai Mushkil’ on Day 1 (final predictions on Thursday). Both films haven’t been able to seize the initiative as far as promos are concerned. Shivaay had a solid trailer that managed to create huge interest, but it’s been downhill since. ADHM’s trailer got a mixed response, but the songs and promos that followed have been received well. What gives Shivaay the edge is action and scale, which should help the film open well at the single-screens.

Q. Which is a hotter film in trade at the moment? If both films have good content then which film is going to win the clash?

A. The trade has been favouring ‘Shivaay’ since Day 1 and understandably so. Urban multiplex films like ‘ADHM’ have never been a trade favourite. As for the film winning the box office clash, it’s going to be about content. And content is going to carry even more significance in this clash because Friday, Saturday and Sunday will fall under the Pre-Diwali period. So by the time the audience come out in big numbers (Diwali holiday on Monday), the film that’s carrying better word-of-mouth will begin to score big at multiplexes. If both films get mixed word-of-mouth, then the trend over the weekend should give us a clear indication of which film will emerge victorious.

Q. How many screens would be allotted to Shivaay and ADHM respectively?

A. Shivaay should end up getting higher screens, due to its wider appeal, especially at single-screen theatres. The final screen count could well be very similar to Mohenjo Daro (Shivaay) and Rustom (ADHM). It’ll also be interesting to see how the multiplexes divide the shows. It was 50-50 for MohenjoDaro vs Rustom, it could be the same this time around too. We’ll keep you updated on the screen count, clearer picture on Wednesday, closer to release.

Q. Thanks Indicine for keeping us tuned in to your site every Sunday? We really enjoy this question and answer session. Please never end it.

A. It won’t end. Thank you for your interest and support.

Q. Both movies are not family driven, both have kisses and romantic moments. Won’t it affect them during a festival like Diwali?

A. How are ‘romantic moments’ not family friendly? The family audience does not even mind watching kissing scenes on the big screens anymore, even all-time grossers like PK and 3 Idiots had kissing scenes. It’s no big deal as long as they are aesthetically shot and do not look vulgar on-screen.

Q. Wasn’t there a scheduled 2nd trailer of Shivaay to come? First one was more of a lengthy teaser type theatrical revealing nothing about the plot of the movie. So can this be said as a missed trick by Shivaay team to release a second trailer just few weeks before and again push up the buzz which has been lacklustre of late with poor promos?

A. Ajay was happy with the kind of response the first trailer got, which is why he and his team decided not to follow it up with a second trailer. It would not make much of a difference, the trailer has been liked, it kept the mystery but conveyed what the film was about. So people who want to watch it will get to theatres. Those who rely on word-of-mouth will wait it out and then decide. Update: We’ve been informed that there will be a second trailer out tomorrow or day after.

Q. Is it true that Shivaay will lead in single screens and Ae Dil Hai Mushkil in multiplex or does Shivaay have a edge even in multiplexes?

A. Ae Dil Hai Mushkil has a lot going in its favour at multiplexes. Karan Johar is a popular director, Ranbir Kapoor is a more popular star, Anushka commands a huge following and is returning after Sultan. There is the ‘new pair’ factor of Ranbir-Anushka too. Then there is Aishwarya Rai Bachchan and extremely popular music. None of this ‘Shivaay’ has. It’s pretty much a one-man-show with Ajay leading and he himself isn’t a hugely popular star with the urban youth. So it’ll be Karan + Star cast + Music of ADHM vs Shivaay the film itself.

At single-screens, action will sell and Ajay has a following in the core Hindi belt. Plus the advantage of a film titled ‘Shivaay’ during a festival like Diwali. So it should all help the film lead at mass centres.

Q. Collections needed for Shivaay to become a clean hit at box-office?

A. We’ll be posting the economics soon. The first target for ‘Shivaay’ will be 100 crore, but it’ll have to surpass Ajay’s highest grosser ‘Singham Returns’ (140 crore) by a fairly decent margin if it has to become a big enough success.

Q. Now that both the films are very near to release, what does Team INDICINE think that which will be the better film? Only content wise, not box office wise.

A. At the risk of being accused of taking sides, we’d put our money on ‘Ae Dil Hai Mushkil’ at this point in time. A lot has happened in the last couple of months, but it’s been difficult to understand a lot of what ‘Team Shivaay’ has said. Right from involving someone like Kamaal R Khan, to all the other things that have been said, it’s been one ugly clash.

The other side hasn’t even spoken or responded to the allegations yet. In fact, more has been spoken about the clash, the opposition, and not the film itself. All for what? Morning shows on the first day? After that the content would take over, wouldn’t it?

From Ajay’s point-of-view, it could be the pressure of handling it all and a lot of his own money is at stake too. While all that is understandable, a person who is confident of the film that he’s made, would let the film and its content do all the talking.

Q. Indicine, I know it is not related to the clash but (please please) could you please do a poll between the two teasers of RAEES and KABIL? (it wont cost you anything but you will fulfil a fan’s desire)

A. We don’t think a comparison between the two teasers is right at this point in time. Because the visuals of Kaabil were not shown in the teaser, else we’d have put out a poll immediately after the teaser was out. Raees was more like a half trailer.

But anyway, vote below:

Q. If both the movies ADHM and Shivaay receive extremely positive word of mouth which movie could collect more?

A. Shivaay is the more universal film, so if both films turn out to be extremely well made, Shivaay would race ahead of ADHM on the strength of solid business both at single-screens and multiplexes. In that way, ADHM will be more restrictive, appealing to audience in those Top 20-25 cities. There would be no stopping Shivaay if it’s a brilliant film. If word-of-mouth is mixed, that’s when the higher ticket prices at bigger centres, will begin to benefit ADHM. It doesn’t have to sell as many tickets as Shivaay to succeed.

Q. Will ADHM face ban in 4 states in single screens?

A. No. We expect it to get a stable release.

Q. Does the supporting cast of the film really make a huge difference? ADHM has a strong supporting cast. Shivaay doesnt. But a film like Dangal without any big names in the supporting cast is making news continuously. Dont you think it’s the promotional strategy and audience acceptance of the trailer that matters more than supporting cast?

A. It depends. A film like ‘Welcome Back’ or ‘Garam Masala’ benefitted hugely from its supporting actors. Paresh Rawal added tremendous value to films like ‘Hera Pheri’, ‘Hulchul’ and others, even though he was only a ‘supporting’ actor. But when it comes to films featuring the top Khans, the supporting cast doesn’t really add much value as someone like an Aamir would over-shadow everyone else. In a film like ‘Rang De Basanti’, another actor had a more substantial role, but it was Aamir who not only got the audience to theatres, but also got all the credit for the film’s success.

Not many in India might like him anymore, but Fawad Khan was called the best thing about the ‘ADHM’ teaser by some. Aishwarya has a huge following overseas too. So supporting cast does add value. We can’t compare star cast to trailer or promotional strategy. Marketing is probably the least important of the three, because if you have a good cast and solid trailer, it should create enough awareness and interest amongst the audience.

Q. What are your thoughts about the whole controversy related to ADHM. Do you think MNS demands are justified?

A. To answer whether MNS ‘demands’ are justified, we need to know how MNS is even in a position to ‘demand’? CBFC has passed the film, government has no problem with Pakistani stars, the movie was shot way before the government decided to isolate Pakistan (which we, as Indians, should wholeheartedly support) and even the army has said it doesn’t need such favours. Moreover, the producer is Indian and the entire lead cast is Indian too. Fawad Khan will neither lose nor gain. We’ve got to add here that Anurag Kashyap’s tweets were probably the most stupid and gave this entire controversy a major political angle. A lot of people have been adding fuel to the fire, and made this silly controversy into a big one.

Q. Who has more stardom? Ajay or Ranbir?

A. Ranbir in cites, especially with the urban youth. Ajay at smaller centres.

Q. Can Ajay Devgan cross 200cr lifetime with Shivaay.

A. It’s going to be very difficult, unless it’s a fantastic film.

Q. A lot has been said about Ranbir and his stardom. But why people are so damn negative? I mean I agree there is not a single hit in his kitty since YJHD but all of his film opened well but doomed because of poor content (except BB). Even a niche film like Tamasha opened similar to commercial Dishoom. Your views?

A. Every actor goes through phases like Ranbir is going through at the moment. But like we’ve already said, it’s about that one film finding acceptance and doing well. His career will be back on track and the perception will change if ADHM works at the box office.

Q. Is Shah Rukh Khan’s guest appearance confirmed in Ae Dil Hai Mushkil or is it mere rumours?

A. Confirmed. He makes a special appearance.

Q. Does ADHM have a chance of getting a bigger opening than Shivaay?

A. If the word-of-mouth is very good, then yes, ADHM could begin to show growth late afternoon / evening onwards. It’s going to be a very tough prediction for us.

Q. How big of an impact current controversy will have on ADHM if it gets uninterrupted release? Considering the sentiments of some Indians who will not watch it due to Fawad’s presence & the free publicity it has got for same reason?

A. Every form of publicity is good. The section of audience who are not going to the watch the film because of Fawad will be negated by the awareness that the controversy has created. Stable release and audience acceptance of the film would be the only two things the makers of ADHM would be hoping for.

Q. How much does Shivaay have to collect for Ajay to be in your top five rankings?

A. Shivaay needs to collect 210 crore or more for Ajay to beat Akshay to enter the Top 5 in our ranking. Ranbir can enter Top 5 if ADHM earns 203 crore or more. Top 5 looks difficult for both.

Q. Guys till now you have not even cared about my question for one time, so i hope this time you’ll.. Don’t consider Shivaay and Adhm because they have generated a lot of buzz…so just answer my question in normal terms. Who is the better or huge crowd puller? It is Ranbir or Ajay?

A. We’ve already answered this. Ranbir at multiplexes and major cities, Ajay at smaller towns and single-screens.

Q. Why is music response of Darkhaast low even though the song & picturization is good & at par (if not equal) to that of ADHM songs?

A. Yes, it isn’t tracking even though it’s a excellent song. Difficult to give reasons for this, ‘Tu Hai’ was a quality song from Mohenjo Daro too.. but it simply did not track. If ‘Shivaay’ is liked and does well at the box office, the songs of the film will eventually gain popularity.

Q. What will be the parameter to decide winner of the clash? Will it be total collection or the verdict?

A. Shivaay has to collect more than ADHM. Final verdict will be given based on economics of the two films.

Q. If ADHM gets good response from only the multiplex audience.. is it enough to win the clash?

A. Yes.

Q. Did you guys like the strategy of adhm team not releasing the whole music album yet? Is this a planned move to generate more curiosity/popularity or it might be that they are not ready with the music fully? Can this strategy work in the future for all films as today its all about online platform only and no one really buys an audio cd/cassette?

A. The music album will be out on Tuesday.

Thank you for joining us today. More than 25 questions were answered. We have a lot more for you think week, so stay tuned.