2016 and IndicineFBO Predictions

IndicineFBO has completed two successful years. In the inaugural year (2015), we made 46 predictions out of which 36 were accurate while 10 were inaccurate. Films like ‘Gabbar Is Back’ were very accurately predicted, but there were prediction blunders with films like ‘Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon’ and ‘Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2’ more than doubling our prediction. 

2016 was a much better year, as our worst predictions were ‘Great Grand Masti’ (inaccurate by 56%) and ‘Mirzya’ (-45%) – both films that were almost impossible to predict. A hugely popular franchise film like ‘Great Grand Masti’ collected just 2.5 crore on its opening day, it was affected by piracy and the real impact of it was difficult to analyse because ‘Udta Punjab’ did well inspite of piracy. Mirzya didn’t even get a face-saving opening at the box office, it was a disaster from the morning shows itself.

Our favourite predictions of the year, also happened to be the film that managed to collect the most on the first day. Sultan was very difficult to predict, because the holiday for Eid was postponed at the very last moment. A 40 crore plus opening was on the cards, but Eid falling on the next day meant the muslim section of the audience did not come to watch the film on Day 1. We expected the film to do 38.5 crore, it did 36.5 crore. A difference of 5%.

‘Dangal’ was equally difficult to predict. The film was neither promoted like an ‘event’ film, nor did it carry the craze that Sultan or Dhoom 3 generated prior to release. The advance booking too started slow, but gained momentum a day before release after positive reviews started pouring out. We expected to the opening to be around the 26-27 crore range, but added around 5% expecting the film to grow evening onwards. The prediction turned out to be very accurate, more so because not many in the trade were expecting it do more than 25 crore on Day 1.

‘Mohenjo Daro’ turned out to be an inaccurate prediction, but we managed to accurately predict the combined collections of ‘Rustom’ and ‘Mohenjo Daro’. We expected the two films combined to collect 23.3 crore, the actual collections were 22.98 crore.

We also managed to predict the winner of both the clashes this year. ‘MJD’ vs ‘Rustom’ was easier, because the promos of the Hrithik film had completely failed to generate any excitement. ‘Shivaay’ vs ‘ADHM’ was a lot more tougher, because Ajay had gone all out to promote the film, it was more universal and it was the bigger budget film too.

The last 7 films of the year were all accurately predicted, with the difference of all films falling under 10%.

MoviePredictionOfficial
Wazir4.45.61+ 27%, In accurate
Airlift10.912.35+ 13%, Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 39.38.15- 12%, Accurate
Mastizaade6.15.59- 8%, Accurate
Saala Khadoos2.22.190%, Accurate
Ghayal Once Again6.47.2+ 12%, Accurate
Sanam Re5.55.04- 8%, Accurate
Fitoor5.23.61- 30%, Inaccurate
Neerja4.34.7+ 8%, Accurate
Jai Gangajaal5.25.5+ 6%, Accurate
Kapoor & Sons5.86.85+ 18%, Inaccurate
Rocky Handsome6.35.39- 14%, Accurate
Ki and Ka6.37.27+ 16%, Inaccurate
Fan21.919.2- 12%, Accurate
Baaghi9.411.94+ 27%, Inaccurate
Azhar7.56.3- 16%, Inaccurate
Sarbjit4.23.69- 12%, Accurate
Housefull 317.415.21- 12%, Accurate
Udta Punjab8.910.05- 13%, Accurate
Sultan38.536.54- 5%, Accurate
Great Grand Masti5.82.5- 56%, Inaccurate
Dishoom9.811.02+12%, Accurate
Mohenjo Daro10.78.87- 17%, Inaccurate
Rustom12.614.11+12%, Accurate
Happy Bhaag Jayegi2.12.32+10%, Accurate
A Flying Jatt8.57.11- 16%, Inaccurate
Baar Baar Dekho9.16.81- 25%, Inaccurate
Freaky Ali2.42.5+4%, Accurate
Pink4.54.32-4%, Accurate
Raaz Reboot5.26.31+ 21%, Inaccurate
MS Dhoni20.121.6+7%, Accurate
Mirzya4.02.2- 45%, Inaccurate
Shivaay10.710.24-4%, Accurate
ADHM12.413.3+7%, Accurate
Force 25.86.05+4%, Accurate
Dear Zindagi9.78.75-10%, Accurate
Kahaani 24.54.25-5%, Accurate
Befikre10.510.36-1%, Accurate
Dangal28.629.78+4%, Accurate
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33 Comments

  • congrats Indicine.i wish like all previously year next year would be great for your prediction.keep going…………




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  • Congratulations indicine your website doing excellent job giving right news to their viewers so I wish you all the best for your future…thankyou

    Your website fan
    Kapil ilager




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  • There was a time when i used to visit this site 10 times a day on an average,reading all ur articles & comments but when i saw a new section FBO,i got very intrigued & exicited to know abt it!First time when i opened that coloumn i literally got very confused & astonished but soon got freak of it.Even Now if i visit some new articles i always keep my eye on ur FBO stalking the predictions of Akki’s films!I mean its marvellous bcz as far as i know i haven’t seen any website doing this! Keep up ir splendid job👍!
    #luv😊




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  • I love ur site and visit it several times in a day… If u could publish an article regarding collection of different films in multiplex and single screen, it would be helpful. If u have multiplex and singlescreen collection of different films, then please share it with us




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  • This is not an achievement. Predicting with 30% (+/- 15%) grace range is easy. Specially with the big films. You predicted Rs. 38.5cr for Sultan that gives a range between 32.75cr-44.3cr. Thats a range of 11.5cr. Anyone can accurately predict this between the given range. Lots of your accurate prediction is in the 10-13% range whether its plus or minus. That clearly indicates the poor accuracy.
    Furthermore, predicting lifetime collection after the first weekend is also an easy task as majority of the collection comes from the first weekend. And with 15% range it is also a cake walk. Predicting a film to do 315cr gives a maximum value of 362cr and a minimum value of 268cr. That means if Dangal scores 350cr, it will still be accurate according to you despite of the fact that the collection is 35cr more that what you have predicted. Is that a joke????




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  • You predicted Dangal at 315 Cr. that will go wrong. Also at such high levels (>100 Cr) , 15 % is not an accurate range. It should be 5%.




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