Toilet Ek Prem Katha Box Office Prediction

‘Toilet: Ek Prem Katha’ is the big release this week and it comes at a time when the industry is yet to recover from the biggest shock of the year in ‘Jab Harry Met Sejal’.

In the last 3-4 months, barring small non-star films like ‘Hindi Medium’ and ‘Lipstick Under My Burkha’, the only commercial film with a starcast that has sustained well is ‘Mubarakan’. All other films have been rejected, most haven’t even opened well.

Will ‘Toilet: Ek Prem Katha’ be the film that gives the industry something to smile about?

Factors in favour of Toilet Ek Prem Katha:

• Trailer: Right from the time the trailer was first released, ‘Toilet: Ek Prem Katha’ looked promising. Movies with ‘desi’ look and feel are working at the box office and ‘Toilet: EPK’ USP was going to be its simple light-hearted story with a social message.
• Akshay Kumar: He’s been in top form in the last 2 years. The audience except good films out of him, the multiplex audience is back in theatres to watch his films too and he’s delivered back-to-back successful films in the form of ‘Airlift’, ‘Housefull 3’, ‘Rustom’ and ‘Jolly LLB 2’ earlier this year. All films were 100 crore grossers.
• Swacch Bharat Abhiyan: ‘Toilet Ek Prem Katha’ hopes to raise awareness around Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Swacch Bharat Abhiyan. The story is about the importance of toilets inside households. If the film does indeed turn out to be well made and gets tax exemption, it could do well in the interiors of India.
• Lack of competition: SRK’s Jab Harry Met Sejal was expected to dent the business of ‘Toilet:EPK’, but the film has faced outright rejection in its first week itself. ‘Mubarakan’ is performing well, but at lower levels. So the Akshay Kumar starrer has two open weeks at the box office, enough time to become a big grosser.

Factors against Toilet Ek Prem Katha:

• Akshay’s Day 1 struggle: Back in the mid-2000s, Akshay films used to get those big initials at the box office, but that hasn’t been the case this decade. ‘Housefull 3’ didn’t get a strong initial, but ‘Rustom’ did. Post ‘Rustom’, there was hope that ‘Jolly LLB 2’ would open above the 15 crore mark, but it fell well short. The advance booking for ‘Toilet: Ek Prem Katha’ is significantly lower than the SRK film last week.
• The Director: Shree Narayan Singh last directed the 2012 film ‘Yeh Jo Mohabbat Hai’ which noone watched. His directorial skills will decide the fate of a very important film for the industry.

IndicineFBO: We are going with 13 crore as the opening day prediction for Akshay Kumar’s Toilet Ek Prem Katha. The film is unlikely to get a big initial on Friday morning, but should grow as the day progresses.