Sultan IndicineFBO Update

The response to the theatrical trailer of Salman Khan’s SULTAN has well and truly exceeded expectations. The trailer has not only made a huge impact on the internet, but the trade is in a celebratory mood too.

At mass centres, 2016 has been a dull year so far and Sultan is expected to surpass all films before the end of its first weekend itself (barring Housefull 3, which is yet to release).

Sultan is scheduled to release on Wednesday, 6th July 2016 i.e a day before the holiday for Eid. The muslim section of the audience tend to stay away from theatres on this day and the previous highest collections during Pre-Eid (Ramzan) is the first day collections of Bajrangi Bhaijaan (27.25 cr) and Kick (26.52 cr). Both those films released on working days and Sultan also won’t have any holiday advantage.

So the first target for Sultan will be a 30 crore plus total, which would be phenomenal. If the film manages to touch 33 crore or more, history will be made, as that would be equivalent to 46-47 crore on a ‘Post Ramazan National Holiday’.

To start with, we are looking at first day business of around 31 crore, which would be a good jump of 10-15% from the same day last year. That would be an excellent total too, but the question in the next few days will be if the other factors like music and word-of-mouth fall into place.

Not that music makes a big difference to a commercial Salman Khan film, but the difference between an earth-shattering opening and excellent Day 1 could be that 5% added advantage that chartbuster music gives – especially at smaller centres. Also, word-of-mouth is beginning to make an impact on collections as early as late-noon and evening shows at big centres.

Monsoon has an impact on film releases in July / August, especially in the South West of India – which includes the major state of Maharashtra. These are small factors, but they do make a big difference to films like Sultan because every centre needs to be high on occupancy for films to go above the 30 crore mark on a non-holiday.

The interesting factor to watch out for will be the miracles that Salman Khan can pull off on the opening day at the box office. Dabangg collected 14.5 crore in 2010, Bodyguard took it to another level by collecting 21.6 crore in 2011 and Ek Tha Tiger surpassed even the most unrealistic of expectations by collecting 32.93 crore in 2012. It’s that sort of earth-shattering opening that has been missing from 2013 to 2015. It’s overdue, so we could well have a big surprise when Sultan finally releases in theatres during Eid this year.

IndicineFBO: We start with 31 crore as the opening day collections of Salman Khan’s Sultan. The final prediction will be made a day before the release of the film. We will be including a new ‘graph’ feature to track the day-wise ups and downs of Sultan’s promotional campaign – so stay tuned for that. It will reflect a lot of factors that we use to make predictions.

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118 Comments

  • Nice and detailed FBO prediction. Always love reading your analysis Indicine.

    Yes anything above 30 cr shall be HUGE and Sultan shall target it. As u said Salman has done it before with Bodyguard, ETT etc. and Sultan looks to have all those commercial elements needed for a huge opener.

    Well wishes for Salman and Sultan team.

  • Are LOLMAN fans still predicting 50 cr for Floptan?.
    This time no south remake or Kabir khan to save the film. Opening might be excellent but once after the WOM is out, no one will watch it.

    So Sultan lifetime – 170 cr at its best

  • I think it will release on eid day i.e holiday becoz they r not fools and most likely the Eid will fall on 6th or might be on 7th so expect 40 cr opening

  • well…trailer was good as all YRF film has we have seen like EK THA TIGER, DHOOM3, FAN…the place they lack is in making good movies..nice trailer only get openings or max weekends.. and in suktan also i feel it will happen nothing new to offer same old type of movie..

  • Top 5 films of 2016 in terms of collection:

    Dangal – 280 cr
    Mohenjodaro – 190 cr
    Housefull 3 – 180 cr
    Sultan – 170 cr
    Shivaay – 130 cr

    Top 5 films in terms of content:

    Neerja
    FAN
    Rangoon
    Airlift
    Dhoni

  • 30+ opening would be great
    eid 35
    friday 25
    saturday 25
    sunday 30
    weekend 150 crore
    (minimum )
    300 sure
    if content picks then 350+
    #this_eid_sultan

  • @indicine wouldn’t it be good decision to release on Thursday than in wed????
    if it manage to earn around 40 or 45+ then there will be huge publicity

  • Ok, so here is my “Fair” and handsome (oops “Unbiased”) prediction for Sultan.
    Many of bhaijan fans are claiming a 300-350-400 cr storm and this time, I do agree with them till certain extent.

    So if we look at the exclusive break-up of the impending collections of Sultana, the figures are huge :

    Eid Factor : +136.04 cr
    Open run for two weeks : +76.12 cr
    Bhaijan in bikini (Visual treat of Sultan) : +76.49 cr
    Bhaijan playing both male and female characters in movie : +34.67 cr
    “Bikini Mujra” of bhaijan : +0.39 cr
    Bhaijan fighting in bikini : +15.77 cr
    Bhaijan’s awful expressions : -56.00 cr
    Copy of CDI and BMB in parts : +35.17 cr
    Bhaijan, at the age of 50, competing with half age wrestler (unethical) : -22.50 cr

    If we sum up, it comes with a whooping 296.15 cr which is certainly huge.
    Congratulations..!

  • if 30+ then it will be highest non holiday opening collection
    @indicine where is your review of sultan trailer like of fan trailer???

  • So if WOM is positive, Sultan will create history like BB

    If extremely positive WOM, then sky is the limit

    If mixed WOM comes out, then it will earn close to 250 cr

    But if the WOM is negative, then movie might fall flat. These days WOM is affecting since say 2 itself. So if the WOM turns out to be negative, then Sultan might not make full advantage of the Eid holiday. And lifetime may not even be 200 cr.

  • Many are saying Eid will fall on July 6 this year, so July 6 will be a holiday and not a pre-ramjan day.

  • @indicine 1st answer my question”do u think it is an easy job to impress both masses and classes at the same time especially for a not so experienced director like ali?”if not then applaud ali for his work at least.
    Overall my opinion is bit different,I think most of the filmmakers r struggling in department of churning out universally appealing muvi thats why Bollywood is only managing 2 give 1 or 2 blockbuster every year but in case of Sultan it looks like that it has every thing for every one and as far as accent of stars r concerned I think it is gud that they hv nt acquired proper haryanvi accent otherwise it will be difficult for northeast ppl to understand.Performance wise Salman has put his soul in this movie n it is visible where as anushka is gud,refreshing.Randeep n amit sadh also looks to hv important roles.My rating 4.5/5

  • @Indicine, what if Sultan releases on Eid Holiday means on 7th or what if Eid falls on 6th? What will be your prediction for that?

  • @indicine please clarify.why will they release the film on a non holiday Wednesday. it is realising on eid.

  • You are saying that Sultan will release a day before eid, but i think that eid is on 6th July..

  • @indicine why always you bothered about pre eid ?? bhaai you wanna everything like one of the best festive period don’t try to make this pre eid factor huge if really this factor are so crucial so why our so called mega star rush in hurry to book next five years eid festive period tell him to bring his movies on 26 Jan holiday like jai ho I thing that you are forgot that bhag milkha did smashing bussines in pre eid month you have to know a fact that

    only 2% of whole India’s population watch the movie in theatres and 2% for highest viewing movie

    and there are only 15% of Muslim in India against 85% of rest so conclusion is that

    if 2% people out of 100% watching movies in theaters than you can easily understand that how many Muslim audience went theater for watching movies in theater aur wo bhi opening day par I think it’s doesn’t make any sense yes if their is diwali Pooja factor than I am agree with you but not in this case

  • Good and wise decision to release film a day before eid .
    The reason is clear as salman stardom alone ensures a 30cr opening so why to waste the stardom and then there is eid holiday which could then ensures a 35cr even in worst case scenario means there is atleast a 30cr profit in releasing it day before eid .

  • I think this film has an edge over Bajrangi Bhaijaan, coz of that commercial factor. In my opinion it will rise over and above of all predictions just like ETT. However I wish SULTAN should have content, not like ETT, which crashed badly after day 1. Sultan is looking massive and grand. Watching trailer is giving me goosebumps. My prediction is 33-34.50 crores and I m damn confident about that. Added advantage of 5 day weekend. Indicine please correct eid will fall on 8th.

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