Ra One HIT or FLOP – Box office Prediction

Here it is finally – the box office prediction of Shahrukh Khan’s highly anticipated Ra One. Before we get into the numbers though, we’d like you to go through some of the reasons why we think Ra One simply ‘cannot’ fail at the box-office. Yes, that’s right. We initially thought it could well be a disaster, but looking at the way the film has been promoted and with SRK pulling of several marketing masterstrokes, it’ll highly unlikely that Ra One will open to anything less than 100 – 110 crores in Week 1 at the box office. 

  • First of all, its a Shahrukh Khan film after a year and a half – his last release was My Name Is Khan early last year – and both his fans and others will agree that he still commands a huge fan-following both in India and in international markets. Not to forget, Kareena has a huge following amongst the masses.
  • From the trailers the film seems to be a complete masala entertainer – action, comedy, romance, superhero – it’s got it all and a little more. Due to the universal appeal, Ra One is expected  to open well at both multiplexes and single-screens.
  • SRK is marketing the film like there is no tomorrow – Youtube, Video Games, Reality shows, Champions League  - Ra One is everywhere. This has helped increase the curiosity tremendously. The only downside, it has also increased the expectations.
  • The music is important and Ra One has one of the most popular tracks of the year – Chammak Challo. The rest of the songs are good too.
  • Finally, Rajnikanth’s presence is undoubtedly going to increase the box office collections in the South. Like we’ve said before, this is a masterstroke by SRK. There is no actor bigger than Rajnikanth down South.
  • 3000+ screens: Ra One will have the widest release for a Bodyguard film ever – both in India and overseas. The film will cash-in on the initial weekend even before the positive/negative word-of-mouth begins to spread.
  • Extended weekend will be similar to Bodyguard  as Ra One too will release on Wednesday and enjoy a 5-day Diwali weekend. So if Bodyguard with half the hype opened to 100 crores+ in Week 1, how big will the opening of Ra One be? Honestly, its hard to accurately predict. Figures could be anywhere between 10 – 15% higher than the current biggest.

Here is our box office predictions for Ra One

IF GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 24 crores
  • Weekend – 95 to 100 crores (5 days)
  • Weekdays – 35 crores
  • Week 1 Total – 130 to 135 crores (9 days)
  • Final – 220 crores+

IF AVERAGE (mixed word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 24 crores
  • Weekend – 90 crores
  • Weekdays – 30 crores
  • Week 1 Total – 120 crores
  • Final – 165 crores

IF BAD (negative word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 24 crores (advance booking is expected to be high)
  • Weekend – 75 – 80 crores
  • Weekdays – 20 crores
  • Week 1 Total – 95 – 100 crores
  • Final – 115 crores

So even in the worst case scenario – unless the word-of-mouth is as bad as Kites – Ra One should do atleast 100 crores in Week 1. That rules out the chances of ‘FLOP’. Also remember that the budget of Ra.One is a mere speculation – SRK has never revealed the actual costs. Week 1 the film should break-even and whatever it does Week 2 onwards will determine how big a hit Ra One turns out to be.

If it’s a good film, Ra.One should beat 3 Idiots easily. Our verdict prediction – HIT or Super-Hit.

What do you think? Will Ra One be a HIT or Flop with the audience? Tell us in the comments section below.

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484 Comments

  • just fuck the bluddy haters..

    every one is jealus of our KING Khan…

    we are SRK believe that Ra.One will be the biggest all time blockbuster in indian cinema…

    SRK rocksssssssssss

  • Where r d bodyguard ppl hiding their faces now ??? ye to shurvat hai…aage aage dekho hota jai kya :-p Long Live SRK

  • Where r d bodyguard ppl hiding their faces now ??? ye to shurvat hai…aage aage dekho hota hai kya :-p Long Live SRK

  • srk rocks…………. and ra 1 will be a bluckbuster. and will earn 500 crore in all over the world……

  • Srk’s ra.one will be a all time BLOCKBUSTER. I am hoping it to cross 250 crores in india.

    and speaking of salman. He is undoubtedly,unquestionably, unthinkably, 100%, completely SUCKS !

  • sarukh pls you go to temple and stay there because you are getting old now the time is for salman and definitely he always rocks. no way for you sharukh khan

  • Shah Rukh Khan: Could Never Release Ra.One In 3500 Prints If Not For Digital; 50-60% Digital Prints

    By Nikhil Pahwa on Oct 7th, 2011 | Post Comment and 0 Reactions Email
    In Part 2 of this 2 part interview, MediaNama spoke with film star and producer Shah Rukh Khan on how film distributors would react to online premiers, how digital distribution of films to film theatres impacts the cost of ‘Print and Publicity’, and why he hasn’t used his influence to convert the entire film market to digital cinema.

    In Part 1 of this series, he spoke with us about how the movie Ra.One lends itself to the digital space, whether the films digital initiatives will continue beyond the film, what it would take for digital IP to become significant contributor to revenues, and more.

    Part 2 of the series:

    MediaNama: Would you ever consider premiering the movie online? How would distributors react?

    Shah Rukh Khan: I spoke with YouTube, and they would like to. They were talking about it. But I think it will have to have enough customers so that… what happens is that for a distributor is that…earlier, our film went on satellite not before 9 months of a release, then it became 6 months, now I know 3 weeks. I think they’re accepting the fact that the business of the film is mostly two weeks. There might come a time that you make a film which might not really be an eventful film for a theatrical release, but it can be every interestingly put on the digital medium. There might be times that you make a smaller film, but a very interesting film, and you keep it cheaper so that you keep in cheaper so that you cover your costs and release it primarily on the digital world, like people do with DVDs. For example, Tarzan Part II was only on DVD and never came to the theatres. So there might be demarcations like that earlier on, then the market may become so big… The digital world is not only going to end on the laptop, it will end up on your walls, on TV, all connected like electricity is. There will be no difference between watching it on a TV or a big screen or the phone, or projecting it bigger. So if that happens, why not premiere it like that?

    MediaNama: What about targeting markets where Indian digital distributors are not impacted

    Shah Rukh Khan: Online it is very difficult to do that. I don’t know if that kind of control can be done. Hamara ek gaana release hua, and in three hours – we tried to stop it and – it went completely out of hand. So once it goes on the digital medium, I don’t know how easy it would be to, and I’m not just talking about piracy, and how easy it would be so that it only goes to that specific market.

    MediaNama: Would you consider releasing only digital prints/distribution for the movie to theatres, because you – at this point in time – have the reach and the power to end the analog piracy situation by going all digital?

    Shah Rukh Khan: We have, actually. My distributors got around 3500 prints out of which 50-60% are digital. If we get a release partnership in China, we’re releasing 1000 digital prints there. China is a small market for an Indian film. If I try to make 1000 prints, multiplied by Rs 75,000 is a lot of money. Digitally, you just make Rs 75,000 rupee one print digitally, and put it all across. We’re doing that in Russia, with about 75 prints. We make 5 prints and put the rest digitally. It’s an amazing, amazing money saving thing. Second, by virtue of 600 theatres having 3D, 450 have to be digital, because we’re not doing the analog 3D. The future is going to be digital, and piracy stops. It’s encoded, can’t be cracked and you beam it out.

    MediaNama: Why not change the entire market to digital?

    Shah Rukh Khan: I think it will become digital only. I don’t think we need to change this market. I don’t know if you’re aware – already if you have a 2000 print release, 60-70% is digital. Smaller towns are more digital, because it is cheaper, faster, better and easier. Digital, in terms of quality, the crispness, we’re going to start shooting their biggest films digitally now. Some of the biggest films are being shot digitally. With all the love for the smell of film and celluloid, I think it is nearly on its last legs. Especially in a country like India – theatres are going every month by six or seven theatres a month, and if I have a small film that is a Rs 2 crore film, and I want it go out to everyone. Each (analog) print costs Rs 5 lakh even if I make it of the cheapest quality. You can’t afford to making prints more expensive than the film. I can say that I have a Rs 2 crore film, but I can send it to 1000 theatres and hope to recover Rs 2 crore even with a small film. It already is.

    MediaNama: If you divide the production cost versus the print and publicity cost, what would that be like in case of a regular film and a digital film?

    Shah Rukh Khan: Lets assume a film is Rs 30 crore, and you release 1000 prints. Each analog print is Rs 1 lakh, and that is Rs 10 crore is the cost of print if I go analog. Publicity, normally, for a Rs 30-35 crore film which is regular media, would be Rs 8 crore. A Rs 30-35 crore film will cost you Rs 50 crore by the time it releases.

    Now you look at digital. A digital print costs Rs 1 lakh, and to beam it, you don’t really have to pay a lot of money. If I was to take a 1000 digital films, I say Rs 9 crore. But then you have to have all the theatres like UFO Moviez and Scrabble are doing it. Once they put it up, there’s a cost that they take, and the theatre hire is still there. That’s why people can now say that they’ve got 3500 prints, but if it was analog, it would be around Rs 35 crore, that’s a huge amount of money. You would never be able to even release Ra.One in 3500 prints in analog.

    I would rather that, lets do 2000 (analog) prints, because we can lose that Rs 15 crore in some places. You would have to play the number like that, but because of the digital aspect of it, we can go in much larger numbers, and get the money back in 3-4 days.

  • hi
    Shah Rukh Khan: Could Never Release Ra.One In 3500 Prints If Not For Digital; 50-60% Digital Prints

    By Nikhil Pahwa on Oct 7th, 2011 | Post Comment and 0 Reactions Email
    In Part 2 of this 2 part interview, MediaNama spoke with film star and producer Shah Rukh Khan on how film distributors would react to online premiers, how digital distribution of films to film theatres impacts the cost of ‘Print and Publicity’, and why he hasn’t used his influence to convert the entire film market to digital cinema.

    In Part 1 of this series, he spoke with us about how the movie Ra.One lends itself to the digital space, whether the films digital initiatives will continue beyond the film, what it would take for digital IP to become significant contributor to revenues, and more.

    Part 2 of the series:

    MediaNama: Would you ever consider premiering the movie online? How would distributors react?

    Shah Rukh Khan: I spoke with YouTube, and they would like to. They were talking about it. But I think it will have to have enough customers so that… what happens is that for a distributor is that…earlier, our film went on satellite not before 9 months of a release, then it became 6 months, now I know 3 weeks. I think they’re accepting the fact that the business of the film is mostly two weeks. There might come a time that you make a film which might not really be an eventful film for a theatrical release, but it can be every interestingly put on the digital medium. There might be times that you make a smaller film, but a very interesting film, and you keep it cheaper so that you keep in cheaper so that you cover your costs and release it primarily on the digital world, like people do with DVDs. For example, Tarzan Part II was only on DVD and never came to the theatres. So there might be demarcations like that earlier on, then the market may become so big… The digital world is not only going to end on the laptop, it will end up on your walls, on TV, all connected like electricity is. There will be no difference between watching it on a TV or a big screen or the phone, or projecting it bigger. So if that happens, why not premiere it like that?

    MediaNama: What about targeting markets where Indian digital distributors are not impacted

    Shah Rukh Khan: Online it is very difficult to do that. I don’t know if that kind of control can be done. Hamara ek gaana release hua, and in three hours – we tried to stop it and – it went completely out of hand. So once it goes on the digital medium, I don’t know how easy it would be to, and I’m not just talking about piracy, and how easy it would be so that it only goes to that specific market.

    MediaNama: Would you consider releasing only digital prints/distribution for the movie to theatres, because you – at this point in time – have the reach and the power to end the analog piracy situation by going all digital?

    Shah Rukh Khan: We have, actually. My distributors got around 3500 prints out of which 50-60% are digital. If we get a release partnership in China, we’re releasing 1000 digital prints there. China is a small market for an Indian film. If I try to make 1000 prints, multiplied by Rs 75,000 is a lot of money. Digitally, you just make Rs 75,000 rupee one print digitally, and put it all across. We’re doing that in Russia, with about 75 prints. We make 5 prints and put the rest digitally. It’s an amazing, amazing money saving thing. Second, by virtue of 600 theatres having 3D, 450 have to be digital, because we’re not doing the analog 3D. The future is going to be digital, and piracy stops. It’s encoded, can’t be cracked and you beam it out.

    MediaNama: Why not change the entire market to digital?

    Shah Rukh Khan: I think it will become digital only. I don’t think we need to change this market. I don’t know if you’re aware – already if you have a 2000 print release, 60-70% is digital. Smaller towns are more digital, because it is cheaper, faster, better and easier. Digital, in terms of quality, the crispness, we’re going to start shooting their biggest films digitally now. Some of the biggest films are being shot digitally. With all the love for the smell of film and celluloid, I think it is nearly on its last legs. Especially in a country like India – theatres are going every month by six or seven theatres a month, and if I have a small film that is a Rs 2 crore film, and I want it go out to everyone. Each (analog) print costs Rs 5 lakh even if I make it of the cheapest quality. You can’t afford to making prints more expensive than the film. I can say that I have a Rs 2 crore film, but I can send it to 1000 theatres and hope to recover Rs 2 crore even with a small film. It already is.

    MediaNama: If you divide the production cost versus the print and publicity cost, what would that be like in case of a regular film and a digital film?

    Shah Rukh Khan: Lets assume a film is Rs 30 crore, and you release 1000 prints. Each analog print is Rs 1 lakh, and that is Rs 10 crore is the cost of print if I go analog. Publicity, normally, for a Rs 30-35 crore film which is regular media, would be Rs 8 crore. A Rs 30-35 crore film will cost you Rs 50 crore by the time it releases.

    Now you look at digital. A digital print costs Rs 1 lakh, and to beam it, you don’t really have to pay a lot of money. If I was to take a 1000 digital films, I say Rs 9 crore. But then you have to have all the theatres like UFO Moviez and Scrabble are doing it. Once they put it up, there’s a cost that they take, and the theatre hire is still there. That’s why people can now say that they’ve got 3500 prints, but if it was analog, it would be around Rs 35 crore, that’s a huge amount of money. You would never be able to even release Ra.One in 3500 prints in analog.

    I would rather that, lets do 2000 (analog) prints, because we can lose that Rs 15 crore in some places. You would have to play the number like that, but because of the digital aspect of it, we can go in much larger numbers, and get the money back in 3-4 days.

  • Salman khan is the faltu worst actor ever,all his movies sucks he is a flopmaster he gave many big flops and 7 to 8 consistive flops before wanted like helo, veer, london dreams, dont say alvida etc 3 to 4 movies cant make him a superstar, and imo ready box office should be above average, dabangg should be below average or flop and bodyguard should be disaster, as it were the worst faltu movies ever made. Only wanted movie of salman khan was good enough, And as per acting, style and great entertainer as concerned he iz zero ass in front of srk. and about srk super rocking khan shah rukh khan he is not only the biggest actor in india but all over the world, he is also very more famous than tom cruise and brat pit. where as salman khan is not only famous in india lol, And also king khan has not given a single flop but paheli the last decade..including guest appearance and special appearance for dmg and billu which is not counted, so guys dont compare this oloo ka patha with king. srk rocksssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss salman khan sucksssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!! My prediction for ra.one = 402 crores worldwide and 249 crores india..mind it thats gonna happen!!!

  • saala sallu jawan tha jab kuch nahin karpaya.buddha hone ke bad kya ek do hit film de dee to uske gand chouda ho gaya.he even unknown 12 flop series.
    abe kuch bi bolo srk is the king.he is steady in his business.yeh nahin ki 4 hit dene ke baad 6 flop ho.he is successive from begins.
    sab ko yeh sachna chahiye ki consistency kisme hai…?
    haan compare karna hai to amir khan aur srk ke karo.these two guys realy superstatrs.and srk is the king and most powerful.
    akki aaya -tab sab usko bolne lage he is no.1
    amir aaya wohi bat he is no 1
    sallu ab aya sab wohi bolte hain yeh no.1.jab jungle mein sher nahin hota hai to lomdee raja ho jata hai.but just wait to see the result on 26 oct.king is coming.
    agar phir bhi tum compare karna chahte ho to yaad kar deewali of 2006 when don beats janeman all the way

  • my prediction
    day -1 42 cr
    day-2 38 cr
    day 3 37 cr
    day 4 40cr
    day 5 45 cr week 200+
    total 450 cr only in india
    read state by collection
    1.maharastra-150 cr(mumbai and others)
    2 delhi(north)-115 cr
    3 east region-75 cr
    4.south (chennai/hyderbad )-80 cr
    others – 30cr appx
    OVERSEASE- 200 CR

  • Right now it seems that Ra.One is a overcooked biriyani. The promotional activity is so intense that it has become so annoying listening to the song Chammak Chalo all the time on TV. Besides, it took the help of Rajnikanth with the character called chitti in Robot to save G.One which is pathetic and more of a commercial approach. The recent including Amitab in the film made sure it is a overcooked biriany. He is making sure all of their fans to be present at the theater. The result could be good or bad. Can’t say anything since it is a massive release on 2011. The advance booking may be enough to recover half of its cost. So lets see what happens. SRK is just looking extremely nervous and that he is adding more and more actors in the film. It’s funny that when the film should have been more focused on its editing part this time since the release date is getting too close but they are still busy to adding actors in the movie which is not looking good from any aspect.

  • i wonder how can salman’s flim be hit!!!!!!???? if he was a actor in our country i am afraid dat he hav to do something else ( like be a gym instructor or be a true bodyguard!!) beside acting to get his daily food !! even srk got a way more response when he visited our country than messi !! and when salman came many of the people was screaming “battuu” which means “short guy!”
    to salman fans, u guys should b proud dat in our country all of our people know bollywood by SRK.

  • dear srinath,
    as compared to salman khan bodyguard is the blockbuster shahrukh khan ra.one is the hit picture.

  • Fuad agreed dude..but..for such a big film..these things are maaf..Indian audience has been fed such badly by Salman that they wont be able to digest anything else except Masala..so Its fine if SRk is adding commercial value to Ra.One..I know it would be fun to see Rajni and hear Amitabh..

    And..

    Haters..SRK confirmed 4000+ prints..
    700-1000China
    100Russia
    3000+India

    and rest overseas not disclosed..

  • king sirf ek hota he aur wo shahrukh he jis ne bollywood me ate sath hi king ki seat jit li aur wo abhi uspe tika huwa he aur hamesha tak King Khan hi rahega…salman khan ki pehli film kia hit hogae to use ap king nai keh sakte…bollywood ki history me ja ker dekhiye k shahrukh ko ese hi king nai kaha jata usne apne best best best skills pe ye nam hasil kia he…to ainda se kuch b kehne se pehle ye bat zrur sochna…RA.ONE WILL B ALL TIME BESETES MOVIE EVER N EVER ALL OVER THE WORLD U ALL UNDERSTAND…???ya translate kar k batao u all duffeRZZZZ..!!!!

  • awl u ppl.-get a breath@..luk,salman fans r so damn rite..srk iz a flop actor,iznt he!just abt 80 percent success rate compared to sk’s 30-35..he doesnt kno hw to act..only 14 filmfare awards..nd salman..wow he hz won ah ah kitna..bhai..koi btao yaar…meko toh bas ek hi yaad ata..@.nd fan following..well,get out of ur holes u morons…no1 knws whu da hell z salman outsyd india….!evn pamela anderson who came to salman’s big boss didnt kno him,bt she knw srk..@

  • nd well salman’s die’-hard fans are lyk sperms..evry one in a 100 million has a possibility of being a human…@hehe..meko gaaliyan mat dena bhailog..just a discussion…baat se jhagadna..!@

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