Bollywood Box Office

Krrish 3 HIT or Flop: Box Office Prediction

It’s Diwali and the biggest film of the year – Rakesh Roshan’s Krrish 3 – is all set to hit screens in less than a week. Expectations are sky high and rightly so, because the father-son jodi of Hrithik and Rakesh Roshan have never failed. We are not even talking about small hits here, each film of theirs has shattered every box office record in sight.

Rakesh - Hrithik Films

Rakesh – Hrithik Films

A quick look at some of their films together..

  • Kaho Na Pyaar Hai – Way back in 2000, the entire industry and national audience were looking forward to the debut of Amitabh Bachchan’s son Abhishek and Randhir Kapoor’s daughter Kareena Kapoor in a film titled Refugee. About 7 months before the much-awaited release, Rakesh Roshan’s son Hrithik made his debut in a love story with another newcomer Amisha Patel. Expectations weren’t quite as high, but Hrithik single-handedly took the world by storm. Not only did he turn into a superstar overnight, comparisons were being made between Hrithik and the reigning superstar Shahrukh Khan. KNPH went on to be the biggest grosser of the year and won Hrithik the Best debut and Best Actor trophy that year.
  • Koi Mil Gaya – The scenario was completely different. Expectations from KMG were high, but more importantly it was a make-or-break film for Hrithik who was written off by the media as a one-hit wonder. From comparisons with Shahrukh Khan to one-hit wonders like Kumar Gaurav, Hrithik had seen it all in the span of 3 years. Koi Mil Gaya though proved to be a turning point in Hrithik’s career as the film, once again, went on to be the biggest grosser of 2003. Hrithik won the Best Actor and Best Actor Critics Filmfare award in the same year.
  • Krrish – Between KMG and Krrish, Hrithik only featured in one film ‘Lakshya’ which didn’t do too well at the box office, even though it is widely believed to be Hrithik’s best film and performance. Krrish arrived in 2006 and took the box office by storm, going on to be the highest grossing film ever. It took Hrithik’s own film Dhoom 2 that very year to surpass Krrish, and Hrithik was crowned the box office king for the first time since Kaho Na Pyaar Hai.

More than 7 years later, the duo return with their most-ambitious film to date. Krrish 3 made on a budget of 90 crore, with print and marketing likely to add up to 25 crore, taking the total cost of the film to around 115 crore.

Economics: A huge chunk of their investment has already been recovered. The satellite rights were pre-sold for Rs 40 crore, music rights fetched around 10 crore and Rakesh Roshan also sold theatrical rights to individual distributors before the film went on floors. For Krrish 3 to be a decent success and ensure that the distributors don’t end up in the red, the film has to collect around 120 crore at the domestic box office.

Krrish 3 Poster - Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Krrish 3 Poster – Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Screens: Krrish 3 will have the widest release for an Indian film ever. The expected screen count including regional versions is around 4100. Although this could change as some screens get finalised as late as the Wednesday before release.

Runtime: The film has been passed with a ‘U’ certificate. The runtime is exactly 2 hours 33 minutes, so the turnaround time (between two shows) at multiplexes will be around 3 hours. The runtime is just about right, not as long as Agneepath (2 hours 54 minutes) and not too short as single-screens audience don’t consider films that are less than 2 hours to be ‘paisa-vasool’. Exhibitors can easily screen 5 shows a day, a few theatres that start early could squeeze in 6 shows a day per screen.

Records: For opening day and weekend records, timing of release and luck are huge factors. Unfortunately, Krrish 3 isn’t getting the best of dates. Opening day is not a national holiday and the film is releasing during the pre-Diwali period. Sunday is Diwali puja, which has a huge impact on collections. While the film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record, 3-day weekend records (currently held by Chennai Express) are likely to be out of reach. More on the records that Krrish 3 chases in a separate article.

We are changing our format slightly for the box office predictions of Krrish 3, as a lot of people have requested day-wise predictions. Here it is then Krrish 3 box office predictions..

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 28 crore
  • Day 2 – 25 crore
  • Day 3 – 20 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 73 crores
  • Day 4 – 25 crore
  • First Week –  140 crores
  • Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 26 crore
  • Day 2 – 22 crore
  • Day 3 – 17 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 65 crores
  • Day 4 – 19 crore
  • First Week –  120 crores
  • Final – 170 crores (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 24 cr
  • Day 2 – 18 cr
  • Day 3 – 14 cr (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 56 cr
  • Day 4 – 13 cr
  • First Week –  88 cr
  • Final – 105 cr (Flop / Below Average)

Even in the worst case scenario, Krrish 3 should cross the 100 crore mark, but as we have seen with films like Besharam, box office is and always has been highly unpredictable. If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed. But since Krrish 3 is such a risky film, is could all go terribly wrong too.

The trade has its fingers crossed, as the Diwali period has always been highly lucrative for the industry. The combined business that Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardar generated last year was 200 cr+

It’s going to be an exciting time for the industry and for all the box office fanatics here on Indicine. In-depth reports, box office comparisons, records.. we will cover it all here.

For now, tell us what you think. Will Krrish 3 take the box office by storm? Will the film go on to be massive hit or sink without a trace? Its Hrithik’s time to shine, can he? That’s the big question.

Post your comments below.

Note: Any irrelevant or silly comments will be deleted. Don’t bother posting.

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159 Comments

  • This is highly action based superhero film. It is all about action, stunts, VFX and magic touch of Rakesh Roshan. Hrithik is always great onscreen, kids wants Krrish unlike Besharam. Not looking childish story like in Ra.One. 250cr. is surely on board. Hope story has all sweets and spices to make the Diwali dish tastier.

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  • Krrish3 I can’t expect less than 300 cr lifetime.. and 102 cr weekend.. BT I know some Gators from Facebook and twitter will try to spread negativity.. hope all will b positive and negative things won’t impact the movie at all

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  • Krrish3 I can’t expect less than 300 cr lifetime.. and 102 cr weekend.. BT I know some hators from Facebook and twitter will try to spread negativity.. hope all will b positive and negative things won’t impact the movie at all

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  • to be honest if k3 get gud response than 200cr or can barely beat 3i not more than this if bad response than around 150

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  • @romance new_yr one thing i want to tell you i never underestimate srk and his stardom. You told me srk average or bad content movies collecting big what happen when he doing great script movies. I think you are such a blind fan of srk who now saying srk never done good script movies ever. Tell me why swades,paheli,kabhi haa kabhi naa, movies were flopped or average. Why they were not among top 5 movies of that years. Isn’t your srk stardom wasn’t enough to pull masterpiece swades atleast a hit in India and overseas. Do you know why swades flop in India and average in overseas while his crap kank was highest grosser till 2006 in overseas and was an atbb. You srkians was always downgrade indians when they liked movies like rr,singham,ready,dabangg,ett etc hit and when the same audience made ce huge success than you start to shouting everywhere like never before. Tell you one thing ce is a good family entertainer released on eid, that’s y it worked and who stopped srk to do good script movie now a days.

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  • @romance i think you don’t even know how a movie termed as hit, superhit, avg by trade. Each and every movie called successful only when its all distributer and exhibitors collecting profit or atleast breakeven. A movie called average if it collect equal to its cost, called hit if it recover double to its cost. Super hit when movie collect 220% of its investment and become blockbuster only when it collect more than 250% of its cost and if movie not able to collect even 60-75% of its cost than it termed as flop and if not able to collect 50% of its cost than termed as disaster. Satellite,music right etc only come in producers kitty and not having any relation to bo performance. Now tell of which logic raone and don2 was a hit, talaash was semihit because its budget was 50cr and for becoming a hit its require it to earn min 100cr, while don2 required to collect 130cr for hit which its not collected. And if a movie is multiplex audience than its require more than above method. talaash and don2 were 4 multiplexes

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  • For k3 collection i don’t believe predicting movie on day by day collection and its become more difficult for a movie like k3 which having great buzz and its weekend having 3 semi holiday as we can’t say dhanteras,choti diwali and diwali day either a holiday or non holiday. But i think 85cr weekend looks possible. And for me i can say k3 become successful if its do atleast 175-180 cr, there is every possibility that k3 will do 200 cr and even can surpass ce lifetime. Best of luck to k3 and all k3 lovers

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  • best film of the year:-)
    1st day-32cr.
    2nd day-30cr.
    3rd day-40cr.
    week end-102 cr.
    week 1-150 cr.
    life time-240cr.
    verdict-all-time-blockbuster.
    history shattered.
    3 cheers for hrithik’s krrish3:-)

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  • Correction talaash budget was 40cr and was a clean hit declare by Boi, though i am always follow boi they first declared it a semi hit but now as hit due to its cost of 40cr not 50cr and its confirmed by srkians fav wikipedia, so @romance its clear hit not a semi hit and tell me any authentic source from where you got talaash cost of 60cr, and don2 cost was 70cr not 80 cr, as i stated in my previous comment.

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  • Only after K3 release, these dogs will stop barking. They have no idea what they are going to witness on Nov 1st. Krrish 3 will shatter all the records at BO with ease. I want to see their faces when Krrish 3 takes blistering start at the box office.

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  • @AKS befor 2006, the stardorm of srk is different n now he is the king of bollywood. Its very sad swedes flop same thing tere naam is not a hit film. Where bad film ra1 is hit n dabangg2 is blockbuster. So just imagine if swdes or tere naam releasing now than what happen, past is past n present is present, by the kank is not crap, its my all time fav after ddlj. Kank is the turning point of srk carear after that he never gave any single flop and also set new benchmark in oversease. Good films means bazigar, ddlj, dtph, kkhh, mohabatain, devdas, k3g, kank, devdas, veer zara, om santi om, mnik, cdi, rab ne, mai hoo na type films. If hny turns another mai hoo na then it easili cross 500cr.
    D2 budget i think 75cr max if boi declear hit then it may be hit but wikipidia always gave fake collection

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  • The main factor for CE was it had 3 big days close to 30 crores each. I think the opening day and first monday will b very huge. 30-35 crores possible on monday( new year ) . ALL D BEST HRITIK BREAK ALL RECORDS!/! 200+

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  • The reason behind Krrish 3 will be evergreen BLOCKBUSTER:

    1. first of all- all the kids who are between 5-15 will go to watch the movies, and they will be accompanied by their parents. SO instead of 1 ticket sold Krrish 3 will be selling 4-5 tickets. X4 OR X5

    2. If you are in your mid 20s, you must have been around 10 when KMG was released(2003), don’t you think you will go to watch krrish since it was your childhood superhero just like the kids now.

    3. Just becoz of kmg and krrish it will generate huge revenue. Reason is simple, it has been release in different times, 2003 and 2006 and have gather and nurtured audience during this timeline.

    4. These kids love to watch a movie they love at least 2-3 times as research says. They will force their parents to watch it again. X2

    5. Beside it is father son duo and Rakesh Roshan knows how to hit the emotions. His movies keep lingering even after you leave the movie theater.

    6. Songs are not good but if you watch it with visuals, it is not that bad. It connects with the movie. Even in God allah, you can rakesh roshan hits the emotions again in every possible way he could. People love that. We are all emotional beings.

    7. My PREDICTION : 233cr

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