Krrish 3 HIT or Flop: Box Office Prediction

It’s Diwali and the biggest film of the year – Rakesh Roshan’s Krrish 3 – is all set to hit screens in less than a week. Expectations are sky high and rightly so, because the father-son jodi of Hrithik and Rakesh Roshan have never failed. We are not even talking about small hits here, each film of theirs has shattered every box office record in sight.

Rakesh - Hrithik Films

Rakesh – Hrithik Films

A quick look at some of their films together..

  • Kaho Na Pyaar Hai – Way back in 2000, the entire industry and national audience were looking forward to the debut of Amitabh Bachchan’s son Abhishek and Randhir Kapoor’s daughter Kareena Kapoor in a film titled Refugee. About 7 months before the much-awaited release, Rakesh Roshan’s son Hrithik made his debut in a love story with another newcomer Amisha Patel. Expectations weren’t quite as high, but Hrithik single-handedly took the world by storm. Not only did he turn into a superstar overnight, comparisons were being made between Hrithik and the reigning superstar Shahrukh Khan. KNPH went on to be the biggest grosser of the year and won Hrithik the Best debut and Best Actor trophy that year.
  • Koi Mil Gaya – The scenario was completely different. Expectations from KMG were high, but more importantly it was a make-or-break film for Hrithik who was written off by the media as a one-hit wonder. From comparisons with Shahrukh Khan to one-hit wonders like Kumar Gaurav, Hrithik had seen it all in the span of 3 years. Koi Mil Gaya though proved to be a turning point in Hrithik’s career as the film, once again, went on to be the biggest grosser of 2003. Hrithik won the Best Actor and Best Actor Critics Filmfare award in the same year.
  • Krrish – Between KMG and Krrish, Hrithik only featured in one film ‘Lakshya’ which didn’t do too well at the box office, even though it is widely believed to be Hrithik’s best film and performance. Krrish arrived in 2006 and took the box office by storm, going on to be the highest grossing film ever. It took Hrithik’s own film Dhoom 2 that very year to surpass Krrish, and Hrithik was crowned the box office king for the first time since Kaho Na Pyaar Hai.

More than 7 years later, the duo return with their most-ambitious film to date. Krrish 3 made on a budget of 90 crore, with print and marketing likely to add up to 25 crore, taking the total cost of the film to around 115 crore.

Economics: A huge chunk of their investment has already been recovered. The satellite rights were pre-sold for Rs 40 crore, music rights fetched around 10 crore and Rakesh Roshan also sold theatrical rights to individual distributors before the film went on floors. For Krrish 3 to be a decent success and ensure that the distributors don’t end up in the red, the film has to collect around 120 crore at the domestic box office.

Krrish 3 Poster - Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Krrish 3 Poster – Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Screens: Krrish 3 will have the widest release for an Indian film ever. The expected screen count including regional versions is around 4100. Although this could change as some screens get finalised as late as the Wednesday before release.

Runtime: The film has been passed with a ‘U’ certificate. The runtime is exactly 2 hours 33 minutes, so the turnaround time (between two shows) at multiplexes will be around 3 hours. The runtime is just about right, not as long as Agneepath (2 hours 54 minutes) and not too short as single-screens audience don’t consider films that are less than 2 hours to be ‘paisa-vasool’. Exhibitors can easily screen 5 shows a day, a few theatres that start early could squeeze in 6 shows a day per screen.

Records: For opening day and weekend records, timing of release and luck are huge factors. Unfortunately, Krrish 3 isn’t getting the best of dates. Opening day is not a national holiday and the film is releasing during the pre-Diwali period. Sunday is Diwali puja, which has a huge impact on collections. While the film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record, 3-day weekend records (currently held by Chennai Express) are likely to be out of reach. More on the records that Krrish 3 chases in a separate article.

We are changing our format slightly for the box office predictions of Krrish 3, as a lot of people have requested day-wise predictions. Here it is then Krrish 3 box office predictions..

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 28 crore
  • Day 2 – 25 crore
  • Day 3 – 20 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 73 crores
  • Day 4 – 25 crore
  • First Week –  140 crores
  • Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 26 crore
  • Day 2 – 22 crore
  • Day 3 – 17 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 65 crores
  • Day 4 – 19 crore
  • First Week –  120 crores
  • Final – 170 crores (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 24 cr
  • Day 2 – 18 cr
  • Day 3 – 14 cr (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 56 cr
  • Day 4 – 13 cr
  • First Week –  88 cr
  • Final – 105 cr (Flop / Below Average)

Even in the worst case scenario, Krrish 3 should cross the 100 crore mark, but as we have seen with films like Besharam, box office is and always has been highly unpredictable. If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed. But since Krrish 3 is such a risky film, is could all go terribly wrong too.

The trade has its fingers crossed, as the Diwali period has always been highly lucrative for the industry. The combined business that Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardar generated last year was 200 cr+

It’s going to be an exciting time for the industry and for all the box office fanatics here on Indicine. In-depth reports, box office comparisons, records.. we will cover it all here.

For now, tell us what you think. Will Krrish 3 take the box office by storm? Will the film go on to be massive hit or sink without a trace? Its Hrithik’s time to shine, can he? That’s the big question.

Post your comments below.

Note: Any irrelevant or silly comments will be deleted. Don’t bother posting.

 

Comments

Saaaaruk:  (October 26, 2013 at 4:57 pm)

GooD !

Indicine team..

you Have to post about Happy new year…

next Diwali-2014 is

Hny date…

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akshay tyagi:  (October 26, 2013 at 6:28 pm)

blockbuster is coming

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aaryaan:  (October 26, 2013 at 6:59 pm)

Simply cannot wait for this movie.

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Naseer ahmed:  (October 26, 2013 at 7:54 pm)

250+ mark my words

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Mark42:  (October 26, 2013 at 8:22 pm)

stop yaar… scifi superhero movies india me chalti hai hollywoods biggest grosser in india is the amazing spiderman so stop.. go krrish go

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speedo:  (October 26, 2013 at 9:09 pm)

i will not say epic blockbuster and all though i am a diehard fan.but if wom is like c.e then this will be epic blockbuster.250+
even in worst case scenario it will do 150cr..

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aaryaan:  (October 26, 2013 at 10:26 pm)

History will be rewritten in 1st November. Suuppperrrexited.

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sddfd:  (October 27, 2013 at 5:50 pm)

kRISH3 Will bring easily 200 crores, I think, Hrithik films will be better than
Flop Ra.One. Krish2 were also super Hits. So, Krish will also be a Super Hit.

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aaryaan:  (October 27, 2013 at 6:30 pm)

4 Days to go. To much exited.

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aWesome:  (October 27, 2013 at 7:08 pm)

k krrish will make 200 cr but budget of film 250 cr how will make all time blockbuster?atleast film will collect 200+net it will be just a hit not a all time block buster!like a 3 idiots,Chennai express!

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aaryaan:  (October 27, 2013 at 11:37 pm)

‪#‎Krrish3‬ madness:70 % tickets are Sold out for #Krrish3’s First Day shows at Cinepolis Multiplex -- Patna , Ahmedabad , Ludhiana and Bangalore. Exceptional

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aaryaan:  (October 27, 2013 at 11:39 pm)

#‎Krrish3‬ Rakesh Roshan proves he is India’s answer to Steven Spielberg.. Hrithik is outstanding.. #Krrish3 is SUPER-DUPER HIT.. Will cross 250cr min.- Amod Mehra

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aaryaan:  (October 27, 2013 at 11:40 pm)

‪#‎Krrish‬ 3 is cinema at its best. A great combination of story, emotion & technology. Will cross 250 crores easily.’- Aditya Chowksey, Film Distributor and Exhibitor of Central India Circuit., Via twitter

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arman123:  (October 28, 2013 at 1:56 pm)

k3-weekend 65-75cr

d3-80-90cr 4000 screen
jai ho 70-80cr 3500 screen

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megha:  (October 28, 2013 at 2:03 pm)

with a stale starcast it will find it difficult to break even…vivek oberoi is unlucky for all big films…only kiddiess will see the film with mothers..fathers and elder siblings will find it difficult to sit through

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aWesome:  (October 28, 2013 at 6:59 pm)

k we can wait and see the results!!

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aaryaan:  (October 28, 2013 at 7:12 pm)

‪#‎Krrish3‬ ‘The powers of Krrish have not yet been established. That’s the best part of the superhero because you dont know the extent of his powers.’- Hrithik

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sunny khan:  (October 28, 2013 at 8:15 pm)

i think lifetime150 to 160 cr

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aaryaan:  (October 28, 2013 at 8:16 pm)

Rakesh Roshan is confident that the film will make audiences “proud”.

“I don’t know how the opening will be for the film. But the film has been made well and it will definitely make audiences proud,” Roshan told IANS.

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yug:  (October 28, 2013 at 8:38 pm)

super duper flop

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Abhishek:  (October 29, 2013 at 3:41 pm)

my challenge 1st day will be not over 22 cr he is not salman khan

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Chirag:  (October 29, 2013 at 4:47 pm)

In my opinion, Krrish 3 is one of its kind full on family entertainer with a U certification. Keeping in mind how children react to super hero stature, a directorial genius of Rakesh Roshan, sincere efforts of Hrithik and the merchandise which is just rock on….. this fill will break all records and I would be happy if it can break the record of the Highest Grossing film ever….. bcos such genre is not only hard to make but very extremely difficult to give the visual stunning ness which such films demand.

Good luck !! Cheers

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Swarup day:  (October 29, 2013 at 8:46 pm)

@Abhishek u r right he is not salman…he is genuine actor who knws how to act dance romnce…Salman knw only one thik how to show his body…he is not a actor bt a crap actor…dnt compare hrithk with salma…whole coubtry knws who is best actor…

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anup kumar:  (October 29, 2013 at 10:45 pm)

i think 270 cr

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Romance New_yr:  (October 30, 2013 at 12:24 pm)

The hype around lavish Films especially those which release on festive occasions is insurmountable. Diwali has traditionally remained one of he most bankable money spinning eves for Bollywood with its ability to attract large holiday crowd. With Hrithik Roshan’s superhero flick Krrish 3gearing up for release this Friday, a day before Diwali crackers begin sizzling, the economic turn down of the market can surely hope to not affect Bollywood this season. The advance booking reports of the film have been overwhelming and as the film releases in over 4000 screens the collections should kick start well.
A mild trade buzz also suggests that the price ofKrrish 3tickets will be higher than that of Chennai Express.The film, which released this Eid sold tickets at 500 INR per ticket in most multiplexes at metropolitan cities. IfKrrish 3even equates the ticket rates ofChennai Express, that would be reason enough for the film to easily be amongst the forerunners at being one of the fastest entrants of the distinguished 100 crore club.
Koimoi compiles for you our expectations of how we presume the film will perform at the domestic box office.
Krrish 3 movie poster
On its Day 1, the film can easily earn in the range of23 croresto25 crores. Being a normal Friday release, it will be hard for the film to soar any further. Since the film caters mainly to the youth and kids, one can expect to find more families flocking the theatres on its first day. Hrithik’s last film Agneepath,that was a Republic Day release in 2012, earned23 croreson its 1st day. Though it might be hard for the film to match up to the collections ofChennai Expressor Ek Tha Tigerwhich released on full blown holidays, it surely has the potential to surpass this year’s highest non-holiday release YJHD,which made a record breaking opening day moolah of19.45 crores.
For a film likeKrrish 3, word of mouth might have a quintessential role to play. On its Day 2, the film might get slightly dampened due to the festivities occupying the center-stage for most families. The film on its second day, which is a Diwali, should earn in the range of19 crores. There is remote chance of the film showing a tremendous pick up on that day due to the Diwali buzz already gathering more attention than the film for most people.
On Day 3 too, the film will at best remain in the same range or show a minimal growth at the box office. Being the actual day of Diwali, the holiday focus will mostly be on spending time with the family and engaging in festive fun more than watching a film. Still if a good hype sparks off for the movie, the film can remain in the range of23 crores.
On Day 4, the film might see a huge drop. Expecting atleast a50%decrease, given that most offices will be open on that day, the film’s collections will accumulate to12 crores-13 crores. Hrithik’s last releaseAgneepathhad made nearly8 croreson its 1st Monday. But sinceKrrishas a franchise a huger fan base, along with the benefit of being released in the Diwali vacation period, the chances forKrrish 3to remain stable over the week is greater.
Since the 1st Tuesday for the film is again a quasi-holiday given that it is Bhai Dooj, the box office income might see a rise on that day. Estimating that it will settle around14 crores-15 crores, it might be its most solid chance at earning to the hilt before working days begin for the film.
By Wednesday, the film’s collections can be expected to stabilize at a fixed income till it hits its second weekend. Given thatChennai Express,YJHDand evenEk Tha Tigeron its initial weekdays remained steady in the range of11 croresto12 croresnearly,Krrish 3too will remain steady in the same range earning at least a minimum amount of10 crores.
With the conclusion of film’s 6 days, it should enter the coveted 100 crore club at the domestic box office. As per the expected run, the film will surely join the ranks of the highest grossing films easily. However100 croresmight come a little delayed to it given the spell of rollicking Diwali feast that will be prior to most people.

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