Krrish 3 HIT or Flop: Box Office Prediction

It’s Diwali and the biggest film of the year – Rakesh Roshan’s Krrish 3 – is all set to hit screens in less than a week. Expectations are sky high and rightly so, because the father-son jodi of Hrithik and Rakesh Roshan have never failed. We are not even talking about small hits here, each film of theirs has shattered every box office record in sight.

Rakesh - Hrithik Films

Rakesh – Hrithik Films

A quick look at some of their films together..

  • Kaho Na Pyaar Hai – Way back in 2000, the entire industry and national audience were looking forward to the debut of Amitabh Bachchan’s son Abhishek and Randhir Kapoor’s daughter Kareena Kapoor in a film titled Refugee. About 7 months before the much-awaited release, Rakesh Roshan’s son Hrithik made his debut in a love story with another newcomer Amisha Patel. Expectations weren’t quite as high, but Hrithik single-handedly took the world by storm. Not only did he turn into a superstar overnight, comparisons were being made between Hrithik and the reigning superstar Shahrukh Khan. KNPH went on to be the biggest grosser of the year and won Hrithik the Best debut and Best Actor trophy that year.
  • Koi Mil Gaya – The scenario was completely different. Expectations from KMG were high, but more importantly it was a make-or-break film for Hrithik who was written off by the media as a one-hit wonder. From comparisons with Shahrukh Khan to one-hit wonders like Kumar Gaurav, Hrithik had seen it all in the span of 3 years. Koi Mil Gaya though proved to be a turning point in Hrithik’s career as the film, once again, went on to be the biggest grosser of 2003. Hrithik won the Best Actor and Best Actor Critics Filmfare award in the same year.
  • Krrish – Between KMG and Krrish, Hrithik only featured in one film ‘Lakshya’ which didn’t do too well at the box office, even though it is widely believed to be Hrithik’s best film and performance. Krrish arrived in 2006 and took the box office by storm, going on to be the highest grossing film ever. It took Hrithik’s own film Dhoom 2 that very year to surpass Krrish, and Hrithik was crowned the box office king for the first time since Kaho Na Pyaar Hai.

More than 7 years later, the duo return with their most-ambitious film to date. Krrish 3 made on a budget of 90 crore, with print and marketing likely to add up to 25 crore, taking the total cost of the film to around 115 crore.

Economics: A huge chunk of their investment has already been recovered. The satellite rights were pre-sold for Rs 40 crore, music rights fetched around 10 crore and Rakesh Roshan also sold theatrical rights to individual distributors before the film went on floors. For Krrish 3 to be a decent success and ensure that the distributors don’t end up in the red, the film has to collect around 120 crore at the domestic box office.

Krrish 3 Poster - Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Krrish 3 Poster – Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Screens: Krrish 3 will have the widest release for an Indian film ever. The expected screen count including regional versions is around 4100. Although this could change as some screens get finalised as late as the Wednesday before release.

Runtime: The film has been passed with a ‘U’ certificate. The runtime is exactly 2 hours 33 minutes, so the turnaround time (between two shows) at multiplexes will be around 3 hours. The runtime is just about right, not as long as Agneepath (2 hours 54 minutes) and not too short as single-screens audience don’t consider films that are less than 2 hours to be ‘paisa-vasool’. Exhibitors can easily screen 5 shows a day, a few theatres that start early could squeeze in 6 shows a day per screen.

Records: For opening day and weekend records, timing of release and luck are huge factors. Unfortunately, Krrish 3 isn’t getting the best of dates. Opening day is not a national holiday and the film is releasing during the pre-Diwali period. Sunday is Diwali puja, which has a huge impact on collections. While the film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record, 3-day weekend records (currently held by Chennai Express) are likely to be out of reach. More on the records that Krrish 3 chases in a separate article.

We are changing our format slightly for the box office predictions of Krrish 3, as a lot of people have requested day-wise predictions. Here it is then Krrish 3 box office predictions..

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 28 crore
  • Day 2 – 25 crore
  • Day 3 – 20 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 73 crores
  • Day 4 – 25 crore
  • First Week –  140 crores
  • Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 26 crore
  • Day 2 – 22 crore
  • Day 3 – 17 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 65 crores
  • Day 4 – 19 crore
  • First Week –  120 crores
  • Final – 170 crores (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 24 cr
  • Day 2 – 18 cr
  • Day 3 – 14 cr (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 56 cr
  • Day 4 – 13 cr
  • First Week –  88 cr
  • Final – 105 cr (Flop / Below Average)

Even in the worst case scenario, Krrish 3 should cross the 100 crore mark, but as we have seen with films like Besharam, box office is and always has been highly unpredictable. If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed. But since Krrish 3 is such a risky film, is could all go terribly wrong too.

The trade has its fingers crossed, as the Diwali period has always been highly lucrative for the industry. The combined business that Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardar generated last year was 200 cr+

It’s going to be an exciting time for the industry and for all the box office fanatics here on Indicine. In-depth reports, box office comparisons, records.. we will cover it all here.

For now, tell us what you think. Will Krrish 3 take the box office by storm? Will the film go on to be massive hit or sink without a trace? Its Hrithik’s time to shine, can he? That’s the big question.

Post your comments below.

Note: Any irrelevant or silly comments will be deleted. Don’t bother posting.

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159 Comments

  • @romance:u idiot,which khan starrer has done 250cr as u r sayin non khan starrer cnt do 250cr??
    who xpectd srk to giv 210cr?his highest ws 114cr bfre..wat will u say wen hrithik gave 80cr wen srks highest was 66cr,aamir highest ws 56cr nd salmans highest ws 70cr??so shut d * up u looser..
    this is full fledged commercial movie aftr years ,so u gtta undrstnd this nd enuf of ur barking at hrithik articles..

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 21 Thumb down 7
  • nicely written indicine!! thats the problem with krissh3..its budget is so high ( 140 crores)…anything less than 160 crores gross , will result in average tag ..can be also flop!!!!and also…the hollywood biggie THOR: THE DARK WORLD releasing in india during diwali will be a huge competition as the scriptwork and basic theme is same in krishh3. it can cut down a lot of audience in which, the visual effects & quality will be easily compared by the” intelligent audience”….vivek oberoi’s clowny, funny costume has already raised many questions on the final fate of the movie.

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  • K3 will not only break but it will destroy CE records mark my words….Raamleela will be a disaster coz of K3 fever

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 19 Thumb down 7
  • all jealous haters , just shut up, krrish 3 is a film which is universal and will be watched by all categories of audience, even though koi mil gaya and krrish were sci fi movies , they were still mass appealing, thats the magic of rakesh roshan, hrithik roshan is currently on fire, he will set the screen ablaze with krrish 3, no doubt krrish 3 will break all records, please don’t compare with besharam and boss scenario as beshara mwas rejected from the trailer release day itself, boss was never among most awaited, ouatimd was. K3 and D3 are most awaited, people always underestimate hrithik and thats how he breaks through.

    in 2000, people eyed on abhishek and kareena, but it was hrithik who stole hearts and ruled.
    in 2003, people said hrithik can’t do difficult roles, he proved all wrong with national award worthy performance as rohit
    in 2006, people said superheroes are not for bollywood, hrithik proved them wrong with krrish which was a blockbuster, ruled box office like never before with dhoom 2
    in 2008, people wanted more from hrithik, he gave them career defining role in jodhaa akbar
    in 2010, he proved why he is one of the finest actors of india with guzaarish
    in 2011, he gave znmd which will be remembered forever
    in 2012, people said its impossible to break salman’s record, hrithik broke his opening day record with agneepath which was violence drama(not universal)
    in 2013, people again underestimating him, i am sure he is ready to prove all of them wrong.

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 25 Thumb down 3
  • @romance disaster, lol god knows why you hate hrithik, did he burn your house ?? well right now, i want to burn you because your stupidity is crossing limits.

    all those khan fans who think hrithik is lesser than khans, they may rewind themselves and remember history. hrithik from his debut itself has challenged the throne. its his time to shine, he must get his due, he has worked too hard in his 13 year long career. HRITHIKMANIAAAAAA !!!!!!!

    films like this will show whats the standard of bollywood, not films like ce or dabangg or yjhd.

    come on guys, KRRISH is india’s first iconic cinematic superhero, we should celebrate it, its sad that we are insulting our own country and celebrating hollywood more. if you compare k3 with hollywood superhero films then why not compare dhoom 3 with fast and furious ?? ek tha tiger with bourne series ?? jab tak hai jaan with p.s i love you ??

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 22 Thumb down 3
  • Haters are feeling very insecure becos they know krrish3 is gonna break all past n present records n make new records for future…..@haters apna pura dum laga lo kisi k baap me dum nhi Jo 250 cr se pahle rok le…hrithik rocks haters shocks…

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3
  • I always thought srk is brilliant actor but after reading all the rubbish comments of srk fans…my all respect is gone for srk….don’t know why hrithik is friend of him….aamir fans are even better …

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  • hrithik has always beenn breaking records be it frst day ,frst week ,lifetime ,bumper openings, critics fav, doin path breaking movies,awards,highest grossing films etc etc but still haters barking lyk dogs..
    simply jealous nothing else..
    wait fr d storm…

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 15 Thumb down 5
  • krish3 movie has more exceptation from every one if its fails little bit also thn movie will suffer badly at box office..e1 at the tym of ra1 exceptation was more it did not live the exceptation so negatively spread all over the movie same thing gonna happen with krish3 and dhoom3 bcaz exceptation r sky high for the movie due buzz both movie will have recorded breaking weekend but the wom will decided its final collection

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  • UPDATES of krrish 3 from hrithiks fan site Hrithikrules FB page
    ——————————————————————————————————————--
    Don’t forget to watch Hrithik on The Front Row today at 8:30 p.m. IST on Star World India! #Krrish3

    Watch Dr. Batra’s Positive Health awards on ZOOM today, 25th October at 7 pm. Repeat telecast on Saturday, 4 pm. Thanks Kinnari!

    All you fans from HYDERABAD, #Krrish3 is now open for advance bookings! BOOK your seats, NOW!

    Heads up to all u Chennai folks -- Advance booking is also open in Abirami Cinemas in Chennai! #Krrish3 (Thanks to Ajit Parashar 4 d info on Twitter)

    Brighten the half term break Londoners- many cinemas have multiple shows of #Krrish3 on THURSDAY 31st Oct, Check cinema listings!

    #Krrish3 Advance booking open in UK! Book your tickets for the Superhero extravaganza of the year.First show is on Thursday 31st Oct in many places!

    All you Aussie Fans out there, #Krrish3 advance booking is now OPEN in all the cities! Thanks Arjun for the heads up!

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2
  • krrish 3 prediction
    day 1: 30 cr
    day 2 : 28 cr
    day 3 : 25 cr
    day 4 : 28 cr
    day 5 : 25 ca

    weekend: 127 cr.
    1st week : 145-150 cr
    2nd weekend : 50 cr
    2nd week : 75- 80 cr.
    2week total: 225-230 cr.
    3rd weekend : 20 cr
    3rd week : 35-40 cr
    3weeks total: 265-270 cr
    lifetime 270+(272)cr.

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 19 Thumb down 4
  • Ra.One got bad reviews but after watching Krrish 3 cartoony promo and bad acting it can be worse than Himmatwala.
    Mark my words Krrish 3 will be a laughing stock when people watch it and will receive worst WOM of the year, worse than Besharam.

    Popular Thumb up 6 Thumb down 24

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