Krrish 3 HIT or Flop: Box Office Prediction

It’s Diwali and the biggest film of the year – Rakesh Roshan’s Krrish 3 – is all set to hit screens in less than a week. Expectations are sky high and rightly so, because the father-son jodi of Hrithik and Rakesh Roshan have never failed. We are not even talking about small hits here, each film of theirs has shattered every box office record in sight.

Rakesh - Hrithik Films

Rakesh – Hrithik Films

A quick look at some of their films together..

  • Kaho Na Pyaar Hai – Way back in 2000, the entire industry and national audience were looking forward to the debut of Amitabh Bachchan’s son Abhishek and Randhir Kapoor’s daughter Kareena Kapoor in a film titled Refugee. About 7 months before the much-awaited release, Rakesh Roshan’s son Hrithik made his debut in a love story with another newcomer Amisha Patel. Expectations weren’t quite as high, but Hrithik single-handedly took the world by storm. Not only did he turn into a superstar overnight, comparisons were being made between Hrithik and the reigning superstar Shahrukh Khan. KNPH went on to be the biggest grosser of the year and won Hrithik the Best debut and Best Actor trophy that year.
  • Koi Mil Gaya – The scenario was completely different. Expectations from KMG were high, but more importantly it was a make-or-break film for Hrithik who was written off by the media as a one-hit wonder. From comparisons with Shahrukh Khan to one-hit wonders like Kumar Gaurav, Hrithik had seen it all in the span of 3 years. Koi Mil Gaya though proved to be a turning point in Hrithik’s career as the film, once again, went on to be the biggest grosser of 2003. Hrithik won the Best Actor and Best Actor Critics Filmfare award in the same year.
  • Krrish – Between KMG and Krrish, Hrithik only featured in one film ‘Lakshya’ which didn’t do too well at the box office, even though it is widely believed to be Hrithik’s best film and performance. Krrish arrived in 2006 and took the box office by storm, going on to be the highest grossing film ever. It took Hrithik’s own film Dhoom 2 that very year to surpass Krrish, and Hrithik was crowned the box office king for the first time since Kaho Na Pyaar Hai.

More than 7 years later, the duo return with their most-ambitious film to date. Krrish 3 made on a budget of 90 crore, with print and marketing likely to add up to 25 crore, taking the total cost of the film to around 115 crore.

Economics: A huge chunk of their investment has already been recovered. The satellite rights were pre-sold for Rs 40 crore, music rights fetched around 10 crore and Rakesh Roshan also sold theatrical rights to individual distributors before the film went on floors. For Krrish 3 to be a decent success and ensure that the distributors don’t end up in the red, the film has to collect around 120 crore at the domestic box office.

Krrish 3 Poster - Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Krrish 3 Poster – Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Screens: Krrish 3 will have the widest release for an Indian film ever. The expected screen count including regional versions is around 4100. Although this could change as some screens get finalised as late as the Wednesday before release.

Runtime: The film has been passed with a ‘U’ certificate. The runtime is exactly 2 hours 33 minutes, so the turnaround time (between two shows) at multiplexes will be around 3 hours. The runtime is just about right, not as long as Agneepath (2 hours 54 minutes) and not too short as single-screens audience don’t consider films that are less than 2 hours to be ‘paisa-vasool’. Exhibitors can easily screen 5 shows a day, a few theatres that start early could squeeze in 6 shows a day per screen.

Records: For opening day and weekend records, timing of release and luck are huge factors. Unfortunately, Krrish 3 isn’t getting the best of dates. Opening day is not a national holiday and the film is releasing during the pre-Diwali period. Sunday is Diwali puja, which has a huge impact on collections. While the film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record, 3-day weekend records (currently held by Chennai Express) are likely to be out of reach. More on the records that Krrish 3 chases in a separate article.

We are changing our format slightly for the box office predictions of Krrish 3, as a lot of people have requested day-wise predictions. Here it is then Krrish 3 box office predictions..

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 28 crore
  • Day 2 – 25 crore
  • Day 3 – 20 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 73 crores
  • Day 4 – 25 crore
  • First Week –  140 crores
  • Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 26 crore
  • Day 2 – 22 crore
  • Day 3 – 17 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 65 crores
  • Day 4 – 19 crore
  • First Week –  120 crores
  • Final – 170 crores (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 24 cr
  • Day 2 – 18 cr
  • Day 3 – 14 cr (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 56 cr
  • Day 4 – 13 cr
  • First Week –  88 cr
  • Final – 105 cr (Flop / Below Average)

Even in the worst case scenario, Krrish 3 should cross the 100 crore mark, but as we have seen with films like Besharam, box office is and always has been highly unpredictable. If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed. But since Krrish 3 is such a risky film, is could all go terribly wrong too.

The trade has its fingers crossed, as the Diwali period has always been highly lucrative for the industry. The combined business that Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardar generated last year was 200 cr+

It’s going to be an exciting time for the industry and for all the box office fanatics here on Indicine. In-depth reports, box office comparisons, records.. we will cover it all here.

For now, tell us what you think. Will Krrish 3 take the box office by storm? Will the film go on to be massive hit or sink without a trace? Its Hrithik’s time to shine, can he? That’s the big question.

Post your comments below.

Note: Any irrelevant or silly comments will be deleted. Don’t bother posting.

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Comments

globalking:  (October 25, 2013 at 12:40 pm)

krissh 3 will be a big disaster of the year only srk rocks.

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hrithiklover:  (October 25, 2013 at 12:50 pm)

UPDATES of krrish 3 from hrithiks fan site Hrithikrules FB page
——————————————————————————————————————--
Don’t forget to watch Hrithik on The Front Row today at 8:30 p.m. IST on Star World India! #Krrish3

Watch Dr. Batra’s Positive Health awards on ZOOM today, 25th October at 7 pm. Repeat telecast on Saturday, 4 pm. Thanks Kinnari!

All you fans from HYDERABAD, #Krrish3 is now open for advance bookings! BOOK your seats, NOW!

Heads up to all u Chennai folks -- Advance booking is also open in Abirami Cinemas in Chennai! #Krrish3 (Thanks to Ajit Parashar 4 d info on Twitter)

Brighten the half term break Londoners- many cinemas have multiple shows of #Krrish3 on THURSDAY 31st Oct, Check cinema listings!

#Krrish3 Advance booking open in UK! Book your tickets for the Superhero extravaganza of the year.First show is on Thursday 31st Oct in many places!

All you Aussie Fans out there, #Krrish3 advance booking is now OPEN in all the cities! Thanks Arjun for the heads up!

Highly rated comment Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

 
rezme116:  (October 25, 2013 at 1:04 pm)

krrish 3 prediction
day 1: 30 cr
day 2 : 28 cr
day 3 : 25 cr
day 4 : 28 cr
day 5 : 25 ca

weekend: 127 cr.
1st week : 145-150 cr
2nd weekend : 50 cr
2nd week : 75- 80 cr.
2week total: 225-230 cr.
3rd weekend : 20 cr
3rd week : 35-40 cr
3weeks total: 265-270 cr
lifetime 270+(272)cr.

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G.one:  (October 25, 2013 at 1:05 pm)

Ra.One got bad reviews but after watching Krrish 3 cartoony promo and bad acting it can be worse than Himmatwala.
Mark my words Krrish 3 will be a laughing stock when people watch it and will receive worst WOM of the year, worse than Besharam.

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go to hall:  (October 25, 2013 at 1:14 pm)

anthor raone

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SAKHI:  (October 25, 2013 at 1:31 pm)

when Hritik’s first film released ,he was compared to SRK…..same wass told to Shaid and Vivek..same for all youngsters like Ranbir etc…they also been compaerd to SRK…but both Hritk & Ranbir proved us wrong by baaging 3&2 filmfare awards for best actor….anyway way to go……..all the best Krrish

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JC:  (October 25, 2013 at 1:37 pm)

Thor is not competition for Krrish, as Thor’s character is not as popular as Spiderman, though Avengers as a whole has far more fan following.

Thor like Batman character, has very less following in India.

The first 5 days are very critical for Krrish and if it can surpass 100 + crores in these 5 days, then it would surely get close to 200 or more lifetime.

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Sarfraz qureshi:  (October 25, 2013 at 1:51 pm)

First week is (125) crore ane weekend 70 crore and opening 25 crore and life time collection is 160 crore

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samrat:  (October 25, 2013 at 2:34 pm)

Better predictions than that for Besharam. But I still think the both the ceiling and the floor should have been higher and lower respectively. I would go with around 195 crores….

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Aashish Thapar:  (October 25, 2013 at 2:35 pm)

the film has to be a blockbuster as this kind of cinema has not been created before..if it fails then no one will have the guts to make this kind of cinema in bollywood and comparisons with the west would become baseless…on the initial front, Krrish 3 should easily feature in top 3 opening days and 2nd biggest weekend ever..i expect it to break the first week record of chennai express and also the lifetime..nothing less than 200-225 crores is acceptable.
My Prediction goes as follows:-

Day 1 – 30 crore
Day 2 – 26 crore
Day 3 – 21 crore (Diwali puja)
Weekend – 77 crores
Day 4 – 29 crore
First Week – 150 crores+
Final – 230 crores+

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nipun:  (October 25, 2013 at 2:57 pm)

@sakhi.hro has 4 awards

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nipun:  (October 25, 2013 at 3:00 pm)

@rezme:weekend is of 3 days. 1st,2nd,3rd nov.

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hritikknph:  (October 25, 2013 at 3:26 pm)

indicine hritik is not srk who can give 100 crore in worst case,if it turns out to be like ra.one then no one can stop this to be disaster of the year

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Sunil:  (October 25, 2013 at 4:10 pm)

KRRISH: Our superhero, India’s own superhero.
Full movie shooting in india (Hydrabad & Munbai). VFX bhi Indian studio me. Fully Desi.

RAKESH JI ne pura duniya ko dikha dia India bhi hollywood ki tarah film bana sakte hai. Hats of Rakesh Sir.

Highly rated comment Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

 
sami:  (October 25, 2013 at 4:11 pm)

First week -- 150cr
Total -- 230cr breaking CE by small margin
Verdict -- Blockbuster

Highly rated comment Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

 
deadmanwalking:  (October 25, 2013 at 4:12 pm)

as ageneral predection its pretty good but their is few point i want to talk about it
friday is non holiday pre diwali so how you think on friday the film will collect more than mondey official holiday no way this can happened if the wom is totally good secend point 28cr for non holiday before diwali is also high predection CE collect 29cr ETT collect 30.5cr on holiday so this is totally high number .This is not ordinary friday but before diwali so many people will prefere go to shooping and watch film on the official holiday .

if krrish collect 140cr+ on first week then for sure 200cr+ on card this is what the film is looking for first week and final result

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Orko:  (October 25, 2013 at 4:13 pm)

KRRISH3 WILL BE MEGA BLOCKBUSTER BECAUSE…

(1) record breaking trailer view 17.2million which greater than the sun of ETT & CE. Its stand world no3 after AVATAR, THE DARK KNIGHT RIDES & THE AVENGERS.

(2) bollywood biggest solo release of a biggest holiday season.

(3) child_adult_old all over india like KRRISH

(4) Hrithik back after long time after back to back hit ZNMD & AGNEEPATH

(5) ORMAX_MEDIA:: krrish3 is the highest buzz film since 2011

so cheers…

Highly rated comment Thumb up 13 Thumb down 2

 
Greek God of Bollywood:  (October 25, 2013 at 4:20 pm)

KRRISH3
1st_day_30cr
2nd_day_25cr
3rd_day_18cr
4th_day_30cr
5th_day_25cr
6th_day_17cr
7th_day_15cr

first_week_165cr

second_week_65cr

lifetime_net_in_india_270cr+

overseas_gross_$30million

worldwife_gross_500cr+

Highly rated comment Thumb up 13 Thumb down 3

 
dxt namm:  (October 25, 2013 at 4:25 pm)

i am confused too like indicine about boxoffice prediction of K3.. as far as 100 crores is concerned i think it will cross it.. it will not beat CE for sure.. 200 crores too looks quite improbable.. i predict it to collect 170 crores

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ankit:  (October 25, 2013 at 5:18 pm)

500cr worldwide

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aaryaan:  (October 25, 2013 at 5:33 pm)

Miindblowing Jodi.father and son.blockbuster.

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Biju:  (October 25, 2013 at 6:12 pm)

250cr+..hrithik roxx..baap of all superheroes….

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GGB:  (October 25, 2013 at 6:43 pm)

KRRISH: Our superhero, India’s own superhero.
Full movie shooting in india (Hydrabad & Munbai). VFX bhi Indian studio me. Fully Desi

RAKESH JI ne pura duniya ko dikha dia India bhi hollywood ki tarah film bana sakte hai. Hats of Rakesh Sir

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sandip wagh:  (October 25, 2013 at 7:23 pm)

opening day 40+ sat 40+ sun 40+ weekend 120+ lifetime 250+

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aaryaan:  (October 25, 2013 at 7:40 pm)

Mark my words. Krrish 3 will shatter all box office records.

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