Jab Tak Hai Jaan HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

The countdown has begun. 4 days to go, for arguably the most awaited release so far this year. Shahrukh Khan’s Jab Tak Hai Jaan directed by the legendary Yash Chopra, who passed away days before the film opened in theatres, is all set to release worldwide.

In India, Jab Tak Hai Jaan (JTHJ) is releasing on 2700 screens (could be more), while overseas it’s opening on a record 600-650 screens.

While the film is likely to break opening records in the overseas markets, where Shahrukh Khan commands a huge fan following, it’s the domestic business that is generating immense curiosity all over the internet.

Almost every SRK film in recent times has fared well abroad, but back home in India, Shahrukh’s highest grosser (Ra One) is ranked 8th in the highest grossers list.

So, the excitement is high. Can Jab Tak Hai Jaan go on to be SRK’s biggest grosser? Can it beat Ek Tha Tiger as the highest grossing film of 2012? And finally, the record that every major film has been chasing since 2009, the magical figure of 202 currently held by 3 Idiots..

Without further adieu, below are the HIT or FLOP Box office predictions for Jab Tak Hai Jaan

Note: The opening day records are unlikely to be surpassed as the film releases on Diwali. Much like Ra One (around 17-18 cr incl all versions) last year, JTHJ will open well, but the evening/night shows are likely to be affected due to Diwali puja across India. We expect the first day collections to be around 14-16 crores, also keeping in mind the competition from Son Of Sardaar.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Weekend (3 day) – 50 crores
  • Extended Weekend (Tue-Sun) – 95 crores
  • Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 30 crores
  • Week 1 (10 days) –  125 crores
  • Final – 180 crores+

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Weekend (3 day) – 45 crores
  • Extended Weekend (Tue-Sun) – 85 crores
  • Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 25 crores
  • Week 1 (10 days) –  110 crores
  • Final – 150 crores

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Weekend (3 day) – 42 crores
  • Extended Weekend (Tue-Sun) – 72 crores
  • Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 18 crores
  • Week 1 (10 days) –  90 crores
  • Final – 110 crores

Overall, after the initial hype subsides, it all boils down to the content. If the film is good and has repeat value, it should easily cross 150 crores.

Realistically, even though the response to the advance booking has been excellent, we don’t think Jab Tak Hai Jaan will be record breaking in it’s initial weekend. There are 3 reasons; one, competition from Son Of Sardar; two, fewer shows due to 3 hour runtime; three, fewer screens compared to Ek Tha Tiger (which currently holds all the opening day, weekend records).

Having said that, it has every chance to be a major grosser in the long run, if it clicks with the family audience.

So, what are your box office predictions for Jab Tak Hai Jaan? HIT or FLOP? Super Hit or Blockbuster? Disaster or All Time Blockbuster?

Tell us what you think in the comments section below.



starrys8000:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:39 pm)

JTHJ will be the biggest blockbuster of all time… SRK’s movies are always full of class and soul..

This diwali, King Khan rocks :)

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TINU NEBHANI:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:43 pm)

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nexus:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:44 pm)

it would be all time blockbuster, one of the greatest movies of all time, may collect more than 250 but 200+cr is for sure

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Imon:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:44 pm)

Superhit to Blockbuster as long as the content is good

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star:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:44 pm)

Excitement is at an all time high for JTHJ… Surely a ATBB at the least .. Rock on King Khan !!

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jab tak hai jaan:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:50 pm)

Jthj would be collect 200 cr+ in india..

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RAJ:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:50 pm)

Last year, Ra.one released on 3100 screens across the country in diwali, w/o any competitions & did 14 crs 1st day business, even after such a huge buzz.
So JTHJ will have an opening of around 14 crs only bcoz no. of screens will be around 2700-2800. and also SOS will eat into its business.
after that it’ll have a weekend of 90 crs, 1st week of 115 crs, 2nd week -- 25 crs & after that 5 crs max.

So, don’t think it can make more than 150 crs in its lifetime.

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ola:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:51 pm)

I just love this movie, that is all

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Mubarak:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:53 pm)

Box office collections Only Time will tell, For me it will be remembered for lifetime.

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Dinesh:  (November 9, 2012 at 4:55 pm)

I dont agree with your prediction..my prediction-
1st 3 days- 55 cr
1st weekend(6 days) -- 105 cr
Lifetime -- 190-205 cr
we all know reports will be mixed becoz srk haters will spread negativity..

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Harsh:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:01 pm)

Will definately collect more than 150cr and all the record in the overseas will be broken 300cr worldwhide.@indicine how much it should collect to be a bb

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Indicine Team:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:02 pm)

@Dinesh, I would be very surprised if it crosses 105 crores in 6 days. That would mean an average of 17.5 crore per day, which is close to what Ek Tha Tiger did with more screens and a solo release (no competition). Also, JTHJ is not a typical masala flick. So I expect it to open well and then grow with time.

Kamu:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:02 pm)

Srk rock with an all time bluckbuster 200 cr +

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j:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:04 pm)

i think 128cr + for jthj in india overseas 60cr+ and 95cr+ for sos!! that’s all and its gonna be true just mark my words!!

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arsal:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:04 pm)

i agree that it cannot break opening day record but i differ with your opening weekend opinion…becoz ek tha tiger fell pre-badly on 2nd,3rd,and 4th day..and end up only 4cr ahead than ra.one(53cr)..the break down is:-

for ett :-
day1 :- 31cr+
day2 :- 14cr+(almost 60% downfall due to average wom)
day3 :- 12cr+(more than 60% downfall)
total = 57cr+

now the possible scenario for jthj :-
day1 :- 17cr
day2 :- 21-22cr(holiday)
day3 :- 19-20cr(holiday in most parts)

total= possibly 57 to 59 cr or may be 60cr

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Pardeep:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:07 pm)

It will do 200+ in india and ovearseas it should do 100+ crore mark my word

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rahul:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:11 pm)

sometimes collection dont matter…..its one of those films…. :)
jab tak hai jaan …jab tak hai jaan…

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j:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:13 pm)

content matters, opening weekend will be huge coz of srk if contents is liked then it may cross ett lifetime coll. gradually otherwise not more than 128cr

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srkfan:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:18 pm)

@indicine team if very good would 200cr.u can edit the positive word of mouth becoz its unfair prediction.

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Rajesh:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:19 pm)

Life Time Collections 90 crores -- 120 crores.

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Dinesh:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:20 pm)

@indicine i know its tough bt nt impossible…so lets wait n watch..

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Hamza Khan:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:21 pm)

ATBB !!! Its just a pity that we still carry on comparisons overlooking one films’ advantage over another for e.g A film which features a star, releases sole on a holiday in more prints and screens is likely to have an advantage over a film which releases in the opposite circumstance…

Let’s try not to equate everything to numbers, let’s try competeing in terms of quality and value
But still for some people who find numbers above quality, SRK has been most consistently the best star. Those others that are enjoying a better phase than SRK now weren’t probably amongst the toppers few years back. SRK still enjoys his position in the top most. And in terms of total collections (India and Overseas combined ) , try beating SRK. He’s an international self-made star with the largest fan following all over (:

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COOL:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:23 pm)

indicine team your box office prediction is wrong because

1st day 16cr is ok
2nd day no diwali pooja 24cr
3rd day 18 cr

1st weekend 58cr or 60cr

if very good
1st week 110cr
2nd week 50cr

lifetime 100%
1. 190cr or
2.206 cr or
3.200cr or

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multani:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:26 pm)

1st 3 days 40- 50 cr.
Weekend (6 days) 85 -- 95 cr.
Lifetime 140 -- 160 cr.
Two reason of my prediction 1st son of sardar and 2nd aamir khan’s talaash

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Dinesh:  (November 9, 2012 at 5:26 pm)

@indicine but one thing is sure it will break each n every record in overseas…nothing can stop this movie. Wat say?

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