Note: The final IndicineLBO Prediction will be published tomorrow, this is just a quick update on what number to except from the lifetime business of Shah Rukh Khan’s Jab Harry Met Sejal.
It was one of the biggest releases of the year, a film that was expected to bring the best out of Shah Rukh Khan and more importantly the director, Imtiaz Ali, who has directed films like Socha Na Tha and Jab We Met.
But right from the moment the first ‘mini trail’ was out, the interest in the film dipped and the survey we did during the ‘Tubelight’ weekend, made it pretty clear that the normal audience (not including fans) simply weren’t interested in SRK’s latest offering.
Yet, we expected the film to collect around 17-18 crore on its opening day at the box office. That was the ‘IndicineFBO’ average range, for which we were criticised and mocked from those who were certain that the film would open above 20/25 crore.
The decision to stick to the 16-17 crore range came when the response to the advance booking was dismal outside the main cities. The final prediction was supposed to be 16.5 crore, but we decided to go with 17 crore. A case of pressure from fans affecting our prediction accuracy, because lower prediction and higher collection would mean extreme criticism.
Coming to the lifetime box office collections of the film, the reports vary from negative to extremely negative. There’s a drop of 15-20% on Saturday from Friday (until 3PM) and even though business is expected to pick up in the evening and peak at night, the film would need nothing less than a miraculous turnaround to show the kind of big growth it needs on Saturday and Sunday – after a poor start on Friday.
We are currently expecting the film to wrap with lifetime collections of around 75 crore. The level of collections in the next three days will decide if it goes above that number or does the unthinkable and falls below. We should be able to get a more accurate figure looking at the Saturday number.
Stay tuned for the final ‘IndicineLBO’ box office prediction tomorrow.
| Movie | Date | LBO | Actual |
| Baadshaho | Sep 1 | 73 crore | - |
| Shubh Mangal Saavdhan | Sep 1 | 28 crore | - |
| Daddy | Sep 8 | 8 crore | - |
| Kaalakaandi | Sep 8 | 12 crore | - |
| Simran | Sep 15 | 10 crore | - |
| Haseena | Sep 15 | 11 crore | - |
| Lucknow Central | Sep 15 | 13 crore | - |
| Bhoomi | Sep 22 | 20 crore | - |
| Judwaa 2 | Sep 29 | 125 crore | - |
| A Gentleman | Aug 25 | 20 crore | - |
| Secret Superstar | Diwali | 60 crore | - |
| Golmaal Again | Diwali | 200 crore | - |
| Ittefaq | Nov 3 | 25 crore | - |
| Padmavati | Nov 17 | 180 crore | - |
| Tiger Zinda Hai | Christmas | 275 crore | - |
| Ok Jaanu | Jan 13 | 26 crore | 20 crore |
| Jolly LLB 2 | Feb 10 | 112 crore | 116 crore |
| Rangoon | Feb 24 | 23 crore | 20 crore |
| Commando 2 | Mar 03 | 25 crore | 23 crore |
| Badrinath Ki Dulhania | Mar 10 | 115 crore | 118 crore |
| Phillauri | Mar 24 | 28 crore | 27 crore |
| Naam Shabana | Mar 31 | 30 crore | 35 crore |
| Begum Jaan | Apr 14 | 22 crore | 18 crore |
| Noor | Apr 21 | 10 crore | 8 crore |
| Sarkar 3 | May 12 | 16 crore | 12 crore |
| Meri Pyaari Bindu | May 12 | 18 crore | 13 crore |
| Half Girlfriend | May 19 | 60 crore | 58 crore |
| Raabta | June 9 | 20 crore | 21 crore |
| Tubelight | Eid | 146 crore | 125 crore |
| Mom | July 7 | 44 crore | 37 crore |
| Jagga Jasoos | July 14 | 57 crore | 55 crore |
| Munna Michael | July 21 | 33 crore | 35 crore |
| Jab Harry Met Sejal | Aug 4 | 67 crore | 63 crore |
| Mubarakan | July 28 | 45 crore | 57 crore |
| Toilet Ek Prem Katha | Aug 11 | 120 crore | 130 crore |
| Bareilly Ki Barfi | Aug 18 | 24 crore | 29 crore |