IndicineLBO Update: Badrinath Ki Dulhania awaited, Jagga Jasoos pushed again

Note: IndicineLBO Update will be published every Tuesday.

The period between ‘Jolly LLB 2’ and ‘Badrinath Ki Dulhania’ has been extremely dull for the industry. ‘Rangoon’ sank without a trace and ‘Commando 2’ will also end up losing some of its investment.

It’s time to look ahead to the next few releases..

Badrinath Ki Dulhania (BKD): March is usually a dull period for the industry, but this week’s release featuring two of the most established young stars in the industry, has the potential to set the cash registers ringing.  The industry is confident that the Varun-Alia starrer can surprise and a 90 crore plus total will be well within reach if it opens well. The negatives will be the exam period, the impact of which is extremely difficult to judge. However, unlike most other Dharma films in recent times, BKD reaches out to a larger section of the audience – so if the film does manage to find acceptance, it has the potential to be the much-needed ‘runaway hit’ at the box office, something that every other film this year has failed to do. The added box office interest is to see if Varun Dhawan can continue his winning streak. There’s Alia Bhatt too who was phenomenal in 2016, her presence is certain to give the film a big boost too.

Machine: Abbas-Mustan return with yet another action-love-thriller, in a film that marks the debut of Abbas’ son Mustafa. And even though Salman has quoted the ‘Don’t worry Mustafa..’ song, there’s plenty of reason for Mustafa to worry because the trailer hasn’t really generated wide-spread interest. It’s word-of-mouth dependent and unlike in olden times when films had space to grow, the audience isn’t even giving the ‘routine’ films a chance. If ‘Badrinath Ki Dulhania’ finds acceptance, it could pretty much eat this film up. The only hope is if Mustafa surprises and the film – with the stunning Kiara Advani – turns out to be a good one. The starting level isn’t going to be high (we expect it to fall below 3 crore), which means it needs to show big growth over the weekend and probably collect more than Friday on Monday! Difficult.

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Phillauri: The trailer generated quite a bit of interest, but since then, it’s been downhill for the Anushka Sharma starrer. It’s again one of those word-of-mouth films. Anushka is a top star and Diljit Singh is a superstar in Punjab, but it isn’t the sort of film that appeals to their respective fan-bases. Excellent reviews from the critics and then the push that some films get through social media (Pink, Piku etc) is going to be important.

Naam Shabana: Akshay Kumar’s Baby opened poorly at the box office, so the extension to that film which doesn’t even feature the superstar in the lead – is unlikely to get a big initial. It doesn’t have the credibility of a director like Neeraj Pandey either, but the promos have received a fairly good response. Content is going to be the key, we say that for almost every film, but it’s a lot more important for films that do not get an initial as compared to those that do.

Sarkar 3: If there’s one director in the industry who can really get the ‘dark thriller’ genre right (i.e entertaining and commercially successful), it has to be Ram Gopal Varma.  He’s the master of gangster films too, but the biggest cause of concern is his form. A in-form RGV can deliver a brilliant film, but when he isn’t he can go horribly wrong. ‘Sarkar’ is his biggest franchise, it has a strong-cast led by the legendary Bachchan. The trailer has been received well too. We expect the film to cross the 50 crore mark, a excellent film can take this over 70.

The above films are important for the Hindi film industry, especially the bigger ones like ‘Badrinath..’ and ‘Sarkar 3’. If these two films work along with a couple of others, the Hindi industry will have something to show in the first 3 months before films like ‘Fast and Furious 8’ and ‘Baahubali: The Conclusion’ hit theatres.

Anurag Basu’s Jagga Jasoos has been delayed yet again and it isn’t even complete yet with reshoots taking place recently. There’s been news that the Ranbir-Katrina starrer has been pushed to July, but there’s no confirmation on the release date yet. It went on floors in November 2013  and there have been 5 new release date announcements. The trailer was released in December last year. The audience is quickly losing interest and the product itself is looking stale. This one neither has the kind of promos like ‘Raees’ nor does it have a Shah Rukh Khan to survive such long delays.

Movie	Date	LBO	Actual
Baadshaho	Sep 1	73 crore	-
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan	Sep 1	28 crore	-
Daddy	Sep 8	8 crore	-
Kaalakaandi	Sep 8	12 crore	-
Simran	Sep 15	10 crore	-
Haseena	Sep 15	11 crore	-
Lucknow Central	Sep 15	13 crore	-
Bhoomi	Sep 22	20 crore	-
Judwaa 2	Sep 29	125 crore	-
A Gentleman	Aug 25	20 crore	-
Secret Superstar	Diwali	60 crore	-
Golmaal Again	Diwali	200 crore	-
Ittefaq	Nov 3	25 crore	-
Padmavati	Nov 17	180 crore	-
Tiger Zinda Hai	Christmas	275 crore	-
Ok Jaanu	Jan 13	26 crore	20 crore
Jolly LLB 2	Feb 10	112 crore	116 crore
Rangoon	Feb 24	23 crore	20 crore
Commando 2	Mar 03	25 crore	23 crore
Badrinath Ki Dulhania	Mar 10	115 crore	118 crore
Phillauri	Mar 24	28 crore	27 crore
Naam Shabana	Mar 31	30 crore	35 crore
Begum Jaan	Apr 14	22 crore	18 crore
Noor	Apr 21	10 crore	8 crore
Sarkar 3	May 12	16 crore	12 crore
Meri Pyaari Bindu	May 12	18 crore	13 crore
Half Girlfriend	May 19	60 crore	58 crore
Raabta	June 9	20 crore	21 crore
Tubelight	Eid	146 crore	125 crore
Mom	July 7	44 crore	37 crore
Jagga Jasoos	July 14	57 crore	55 crore
Munna Michael	July 21	33 crore	35 crore
Jab Harry Met Sejal	Aug 4	67 crore	63 crore
Mubarakan	July 28	45 crore	57 crore
Toilet Ek Prem Katha	Aug 11	120 crore	130 crore
Bareilly Ki Barfi	Aug 18	24 crore	29 crore