Ek Tha Tiger HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

With less than 4 days to go for release, the excitement for Ek Tha Tiger is building up. All eyes are on the box-office though, as the film made on a budget of Rs 75 crores – costliest film ever produced by Yashraj Films – is expected to shatter opening day, weekend and first week records. Read more on the records that the film chases.

As expected for a solo-festive-release, featuring two of the biggest stars in the industry, Ek Tha Tiger will have the widest release ever. The film is expected to release on about 4000 screens worldwide (around 3400 in India).

Time for the HIT or Flop box office predictions then. Read on..

Opening Day: Ek Tha Tiger is almost certain to go past the opening day collections of Agneepath, as the hike in ticket prices and increase in number of screens should help a great deal. The jump from Dabangg (2010) to Bodyguard (2011) was 40%. If ETT manages the same, first day should be 29 crores. So, irrespective of how the response is, we expect Day 1 of ETT to be somewhere between 25-29 crores.

Note: In the predictions below, weekend is the first 5 days (Wed – Sunday). And weekday figures include the holiday on Monday for EID.

IF GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)
Bol Bachchan

  • Weekend – 100 crores
  • Weekdays – 45 crores
  • Week 1 Total – 145 crores
  • Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster HIT)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Weekend – 90 crores
  • Weekdays – 35 crores
  • Week 1 Total – 125 crores
  • Final – 160 crores (Superhit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Weekend – 75 crores
  • Weekdays – 25 crores
  • Week 1 Total – 100 crores
  • Final – 120 crore (Above-average)

In short, if the content is good, Ek Tha Tiger should beat the 200 crore record of 3 Idiots. If the response is mixed (most likely for such a big release), it should comfortably beat the lifetime collections of Bodyguard and Dabangg (the second and third biggest grossers respectively).

In the worst case scenario, it should trend similar to Ra One during Diwali last year and attain Above average / HIT status even if it’s rejected.

What do you think? Tell us in the comments section below.

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111 Comments

  • 140 crore Max.

    Salman Khan movies always have poor script and they fizzle out after 6-7 days.

    ETT=140 crore lifetime India and 45 crore overseas

    SRK next = 120 crore max india and 60-65 crore overseas

    Talaash= 175-200 crore India and 75-85 crore overseas

    3 IDIOTS will remain the record holder till the release of Aamir Khan’s Dhoom 3 which will collect 250-275 crore India and 125-150 crore overseas.

  • satyamev jayate,i m huge aamir khan fan.bt i think yr prediction is going 2 b wrong.175 cr net collection in india is very much on da card for ett.n taalash wl do maximum 150cr.bt im agree wid u about dhoom3.dhoom3 wl b da 1st boly movie 2 collect 300cr alone in india.

  • bro …in weekdays am not agreed. if it has mixed,weekend 90crs(6 days) weekdays 25-28crs because a film like 3 idiots done only 38crs in eekdays so with mixed responece ETT will not do 30crs+ and if mixed lifetime ill be 145crs

  • @Indicine team please tell me if Ek Tha Tiger will earn 120 cr then it will be above-average not a hit? Why???…

  • kuch bhi ho bas 3 idiot record totna chahiye …chahe ek tha tiger 6 week lele magar 3 idiot ka record toot na chaiye ye salman khan ke fans ka sawal hai

  • Ek tha tiger will earn more than 250cr and opening should be 30cr only in india because kisne socha tha ki bodyguard 21cr ka business karegi on its first.salman has very huge fan following in india.

  • @sadashiva, Ek Tha Tiger will benefit from the holiday on Monday. If the response is very good, then Monday could well be around 15-17 crores. In that case, from Tuesday – Thursday (3 days) it needs 10 crore average per day for 45 crore weekdays. Not at all difficult, as long as the film is liked.

  • 3 idiots has good content and a message to all..ett will not have any good content..so max 160 cr..first day 24 nd monday 26 on eid..first weekend 84 nd weekdays 50=134 week 1..and second week 16cr..week 2 total 150 cr..and rest 2 weeks 10cr..so lifetime is 160 for sure..

  • You can’t compare 3 Idiots to Ek Tha Tiger. It’s 3 years and now there are many more multiplexes and ticket prices have increased too.

    200 crores is very much on the cards, again, as long as the film is good.

  • yeah i counted 6 day holiday weekend not 5 sorry.If them 5 day weekend 90 …monday-15,tueday-8,wed-7,thurs-7

  • Indicine – Wait if ETT goes past 160 crores then it’ll surely be declared as a Blockbuster or even ATBB as only 1 movie has done it before in India which is 3 Idiots so as the 2nd highest grosser ever.It should be a Blockbuster or ATBB.

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