Dhoom 3 HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Today is not a national holiday nor is it a Sunday.. today is the DHOOM day! The most awaited release of 2013, a film that is expected to break every standing record, finally releases in theatres today.

The pre-release hype has been phenomenal, even though the makers decided against going all out with promotions. There were no city tours, the film’s lead star Aamir Khan didn’t make any appearance on popular television shows and Yash Raj Films only released song teasers (a strategy that could work in the film’s favour as the audience get to watch the full song on the big screen).

Factors in favour of the film:

• It’s an Aamir Khan film! A full-blown commercial entertainer from the superstar after 4 years! He may not command the same fan-following or craze as the other two Khans, but a majority of his audience trust his films to be strong contest-wise. Also, Aamir has teamed up with arguably the most popular actress in B-town Katrina Kaif.
• Franchise recall value: ‘Dhoom’ is the biggest franchise in the industry, probably bigger than Krrish and Munnabhai! The safest too, as the audience know what to expect from a Dhoom film.
• Christmas holidays: A holiday in the first two days would have helped, but YRF won’t be complaining as most schools, colleges and offices remain shut during Christmas / New Year. The last couple of times Aamir had a release during Christmas, he created the 100 crore (Ghajini – 2008) and 200 crore club (3 Idiots – 2009). This time around, there are expectations of Dhoom 3 touching the 300 crore mark!
• Widest release ever: Dhoom 3 is releasing on close to 4500 screens including regional versions, which is the highest ever for a Hindi film.
• Biggest production house, no major competition for 3 weeks, increased ticket prices (same as Chennai Express) are the other factors that will help the film.

The only factor against the film is its length. With a runtime of 172 minutes and 14 seconds, the turnaround time between two shows would be around 3 hours 15 mins. Result? Fewer shows at multiplexes.

Economics: The total landing cost including print and advertisement is around Rs 115 crore. Yashraj Films, the producers, will be releasing the film all over India. The satellite rights have not been sold yet, but should easily fetch more than 50 crore. There were rumours that the satellite rights were sold for a whopping Rs 75 crore to SONY, but YRF hasn’t confirmed the same.

For a film like Dhoom 3, it’s not about recovering costs, but about making huge profits, for all involved. At the end of its run, anything less than Rs 175 crore would be very disappointing, 200 crore+ would be good and 250 crore+ is what the trade expects it to do. It all boils down to the content, if Dhoom 3 is as entertaining as the first two films, it should go on to shatter every box office record.

Records: Without a national holiday, breaking opening day records is very difficult. Having said that, the response to the advance booking of Dhoom 3 is better than any film this year, holiday releases included. The film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record and if it does manage to do so, it could also end up with record weekend collections.

Christmas 2012 (last year): Dabangg 2 collected 21 crore on its opening day (non-holiday), 19 crore on Saturday, 25 crore on Sunday and 15.5 crore on Christmas holiday. The first week business was 106.5 crore.

With a much higher screen count, increased ticket prices and a wide regional release, we expect Dhoom 3 to collect around 28 – 30 crore on Day 1 and then if the reports from theatres is good, it could add 60-65 crore on Saturday and Sunday.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Friday – 30 cr
• Saturday – 27 cr
• Sunday – 36 cr
• Weekend – 93 cr
• Monday – 17 cr
• Tuesday – 18 cr (holiday in parts of the country)
• Wednesday – 23 cr (Christmas)
• Thursday – 13 cr
• First Week –  164 cr
• Final – 250 cr+ (All Time Blockbuster / Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Friday – 29 cr
• Saturday – 25 cr
• Sunday – 33 cr
• Weekend – 87 cr
• Monday – 15 cr
• Tuesday – 15 cr (restricted holiday)
• Wednesday – 19 cr (Christmas)
• Thursday – 11 cr
• First Week –  147 cr
• Final – 200 crore + (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Friday – 28 cr
• Saturday – 23 cr
• Sunday – 25 cr
• Weekend – 76 cr
• Monday – 12 cr
• Tuesday – 11 cr (restricted holiday)
• Wednesday – 14 cr (Christmas)
• Thursday – 7 cr
• First Week –  120 cr
• Final – 130 cr (Flop / Below Average)

Like we have seen with films like Besharam, Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai Dobaara, Himmatwala and several others this year, we can never ever underestimate the power of negative word-of-mouth publicity. So unless, the reports are extremely negative, Dhoom 3 should collect more than 200 crore.

With such high expectations, the response is likely to be mixed which is good enough for a film like Dhoom 3. If the reports are overwhelmingly positive or the film is even half as good as most Aamir Khan films, then sky is the limit. It has been quite a while since a biggie received universal acclaim, will Dhoom 3 be that film?

What are your expectations? Will Dhoom 3 be the highest grosser of all time? Can Aamir excel in a role outside his comfort zone, more so since the characters played by John Abraham and Hrithik Roshan received tremendous appreciation? Tell us!

Here at Indicine, this is just the beginning of our Dhoom 3 coverage. Expect many more box office articles, comparisons and more. Stay tuned!