Predicting the Box Office is a very tricky game. Not many understand the trade and Box Office patterns. And with the rapid increase in multiplex screens across the country, predicting the opening and lifetime business of films have become even more difficult. I will do just that. I won’t be right all the time. It won’t come off all the time but ah, the temptation to play the tricky game is too big to resist.
I will predict the lifetime India business of 20 films slated to release in 2013 (in 2 parts). The 20 films were chosen by me randomly. No scientific research was conducted, to be clear. I did make sure that all the big budget films of 2012 will have their Box Office business predicted. Not much is known about most of the films. The first look isn’t out for most of the films. I have predicted the business looking at the buzz for the films, the past record of the actors and directors, and for some films, I just went with my gut. So here we go.
Matru Ki Bijlee Ka Mandola (Release: 11th January 2013)
The early trailers for the film haven’t generated much buzz and the music hasn’t been picked up by the masses (or the classes). The choice of someone like Imran Khan as a Haryanvi tough guy has baffled a lot of people. The highest grossing Vishal Bharadwaj film is Kaminey (42cr) and Matru will do well to cross it. I, for one, think it will just about manage to cross it.
Box office Prediction: 45 crore
Race 2 (Release: 25th January 2013)
This is the sequel to the highly successful Race (2009). The movie has good buzz about it thanks to the well received first trailer. The music is yet to release and going by the first film’s music and Pritam’s recent track record, this film should boast of a fine soundtrack too. John Abraham, Deepika Padukone and Jacqueline have joined Saif Ali Khan and Anil Kapoor for this film. Last year Agneepath broke the opening day record on 26th January and this year too 26th January will be huge. I think Race 2 will be 2013’s first 100cr film.
Box office Prediction: 105 crore
Special Chabbis (Release: 8th February)
Neeraj Pandey delivered the critically acclaimed ‘A Wednesday’ and everybody in Bollywood was forced to take note of this budding director. Special Chabbis is a heist film set in 80s. The first trailer was released recently and has lapped up universal praise. Still, the film seems a bit too ni?he to join the 100cr club (people thought the same about Barfi too). I feel 100cr would be too steep a target for the film.
Prediction: 80 crore
Himmatwala (Release: 29th March)
Sajid Khan is the man with the ‘midas touch’. Inspite of the critics lambasting his films, they still went on to earn huge money. Sajid is teaming up with Ajay Devgn for the first time. Tamil starlet Tamannah is debuting in Hindi cinema with this film. Going by the previous ‘Himmatwala’ and the poster which has been out for quite sometime, it looks like an out-and-out masala films. The underperformance of Khiladi 786 has put the future of the ‘masala’ genre in jeopardy but Himmatwala will sail through thanks to a favourable release date. Will cross 100cr.
Prediction: 110 crore
Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani (Release: 31st May)
Ranbir Kapoor joined the 100cr club in 2012 thanks to Barfi. The performance of Barfi, highlights the growing Box office pedigree of this young actor. Ayan Mukerji (who previously directed Wake Up Sid) is directing this ambitious road film. Deepika will add some added star power to the film. Also, Pritam is giving the music for this film (and according to sources, the album has turned out really well). I think YJHD will be Ranbir’s second successive 100cr film.
Prediction: 105 crore
Boss (Release: 31st May or 7th June)
Anthony D’souza is back after the debacle of ‘Blue’. This time he is directing the Hindi remake of the Malayalam Blockbuster Pokkiri Raja. D’souza chose to direct this film as it looks safe thanks to the ‘masala’ and ‘remake’ angles associated with it, I personally think that the release date will affect the film’s box office chances. There are too many films releasing around the same time. The Blue debacle is still on everybody’s mind and that is keeping the buzz low for this film.
Prediction: 75 crore
This 50cr film set in pre-Independece Bengal has generated quite a buzz for itself because of the fact that Vikramaditya Motwane is directing this Epic romance. Even though 50cr seems like too high a budget for a film starring Ranvir Singh, the producers (Ekta Kapoor and Anurag Kashyap) need to be applauded for making a film so grand. I have high hopes from Lootera (Udaan was a masterpiece) but to be honest, it’s box office potential is limited.
Prediction: 60 crore
Phata Poster Nikla Hero (Release: 23rd August)
Shahid Kapur has been going through a rough patch lately with all of his films failing miserably at the box office, but trade pundits are expecting his fortunes to turn around after PPNH. Raj Kumar Santoshi is directing this romantic comedy. Ileana D’cruz has signed on to play the female lead. The last time Mr. Santoshi directed a young actor in a romantic comedy (Ajay Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani), it went on to become a Super Hit. While I don’t think this will be a Super hit, it won’t be a whitewash either.
Prediction: 50 crore
Chennai Express (Release: Not confirmed)
Last 3 films directed by Rohit Shetty went on to cross the 100cr mark. Last 3 films in which Shah Rukh Khan starred have also touched the 100cr mark. So when two such stalwarts come together to make a film, 100cr is too small a target. This is SRK’s first masala film and first film with Deepika Padukone, since Om Shanti Om. Chennai Express won’t release on a National holiday and has to be content with a Non-holiday opening day (unless they clash it with another film, which is highly unlikely). A 50cr+ opening weekend is almost certain regardless of the release date. Also, Rohit Shetty seems very confident about this film’s box office potential.
Prediction: 145 crore
Dhoom 3 (Release: 25th December)
This is ‘the’ biggie of the year. Buzz for this film is already at very high levels because of the ‘Dhoom’ franchise and the involvement of Superstars like Aamir Khan and Katrina Kaif. People have come to expect International quality stunts for this and I am sure this film won’t be an exception. It releases on one of the most profitable days of the year and opening records are expected to be shattered. Regardless of the quality of the content, Dhoom 3 is almost certain to earn more than 170cr. (Trivia: The last time an Aamir Khan film released on Christmas, it earned 202cr)
Prediction: 195 crore
If you disagree with my predictions, post your own predictions in the comments below. Trust me, predicting Box Office is fun. Happy predicting and see you at the movies!
Article by Zayden (tweets @ManvsHandle)
Kick and Rdhe will be blockbusters in 2013, along with Dhoom 3 and Krish 3.
Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani……Actually who is the star in this movie…….
last year indicine given 85cr predection to rr.it collected 135cr
75cr predection to hf2 it collected it collected 113cr
60cr predection to k786 it collected 70cr
this year also these predections r wrong
@star. Yaar srk’s ra.1 & don2, both ‘non-romantical & action based’ movies did much less than the very boring ‘romantical’ jthj. NRIs can manage a romantic torture from yashji but they will not bear the masala nonsense crap from rohit shetty as we know how nonsensical his movies are. So 55 crores overseas is good enough for CE. (by the way srk’s only desi movie OSO did $10 million overseas, so expect CE to do as much).
Krrish 3 will be the first mvi to break 3 Idiots 202 record …just mark my words.
Indicine why are my comments under moderation? Would appreciate if you find anything wrong with them but as a indian i have the fundamental right of speech, dont i?
@star. Yaar srk’s ra.1 & don2, both ‘non-romantical & action based’ movies did much less than the very boring ‘romantical’ jthj. NRIs can manage a romantic torture from yashji but they will not bear the masala nonsense crap from rohit shetty as we know how nonsensical his movies are. So 55 crores overseas is good enough for CE. (by the way srk’s only desi movie OSO did $10 million overseas, so expect CE to do as much).
Your prediction for Chennai Express may be right but if the film has good comedy ( like ‘Baadshah’ ) and good action like ( like ‘Don-2’ ), it will definitely cross 160 cr mark.
Chennai Express,if released in the same no.of screens like ETT without any clashes..chances are high tht the opening day of ETT can be broken..My predicitions of Chennai express are 170 crores or above in the domestic market and 75+ crores in the overseas market
Funny but showing a graph of Indicine predictions.
Take a look Indicine’s some last predictions:
FILM -PRIDICTION: RESULT
Ra.One -200 crs :115 crs
Don2 -160 cr :106 crs
JTHJ -170 cr :120 crs
Ch Exp. -145 cr : ??
Dhoom3 will take flying start & huge craze will be their but final is depend on its contents.
Dhoom2 was not good as compared to Dhoom thats why there is doubt about Dhoom3 but good thing is that its a Aamir Khan’s film.
Krrish3 will be fantashtic film no doubt due to Rakesh Roshan’s direction.So i think it will surely cross 190 crs.
@amol. So ce wil b 85 crores – so below average not even an average. ha’klu bak’ri jaldi se retire ho jaa warna embarrassment aur humiliation badtha hi jayega.
Indicine race 2 only 105 crores? It has so much buzz n looks so promising that it could break 3 idiots record easily. If average content -150 crores
good content- 190 crores
excellent content – 270 crores. After all saif ali khan is the nawab of bollywood so dont underestimate.
@Chennai flop’press
Funny think is that each film collected atleast 50 crs less than Indicines prediction.
Haha ce prediction 145cr for non holiday masala film i think indi cine stil didnt learn from Srk last releases result Haha
D3 k3 and salman next wil be in top 3 in any order without good script mark ma words
Boss 140+
ce 175+
salman next 160+
ouatima 180 +
k3 100-140
D3 180-210
Nyone intrested to bet wid me
Top star 2012 by boi
1. Salman khan
2. Akshay kumar 3. Ranbir kapoor 4. Hrithik roshan 5. Ajay devgn . . . This list suits perfect and has a great respect to al of them but sad aamir not in top 5. … . Most laughable Srk not in top 5 Haha poor Srk
King ce 175 plus huh and salman next 160 plus and most shockin k3 below 140cr huh i think u stil didnt learn from Srk last releases result Haha keep dreamin
@indicine Boss prediction is totally wrong 75 crore
boss is out n out action film
My prediction 70 cr
spcl chabbis 45 cr
Most shockin and funny part oso crushed sawariya very badly 5 yr back but now same ranbir defeated Srk in his fav romantic avtar by an being Dum deaf . . Dis Wht we cal true revenge keep goin ranbir
@kabir
Agneepath got opening due to sanjay dutt nd most importantly chikni chameli.
K3-100-140
ce 175
Radhe 160
Ouatima 175
Himmatwala 105-110
Boss=bodyguard
if d3 releases on xmas it wont be a blockbuster
because akshays high voltage action movie thuppaki remake is
coming jan3 after 1week directed by murugdoss
Chennai express will be sure shot blockbuster.i like rohit shetty’s style of film making.
chennai express definatly cross 200+
ready steady po srk
With CE, SRK will beat all our Bhai’s records in india .. But when will our bhai beat ‘Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham’ record in overseas?? Forget about his other films.. hahaha
Best movie ever produced in indian cinema which got an earth shattering response and created record and records everywhere is our Bhai’s —-> Marigold.
Opening day : 12 Lakhs
Opening Weekend : 39 Lakhs
Lifetime : 89 Lakhs
Wow I am sure no SRK or Akki can break this record. Bhai Rocks :)
FROM BOI HA HA HA ANY ONE DOUBT JUST GO AND CHECK. NO SRK IN TOP-5 LIST:
1. Salman Khan
The two biggest grossers belonged to him just like last year and is simply at a different level to other stars as far as box office is concerned.
2. Akshay Kumar
A huge year with Rowdy Rathore and Housefull 2 although Khiladi 786 was a downer towards the end of the year.
3. Ranbir Kapoor
Barfi! which was one of the surprises of 2012 grossed close to 106 crore nett and the presence of Ranbir Kapoor had a lot to do with it.
4.Hrithik Roshan
A big success with Agneepath which was a remake of the 1991 film with the same name and that film had floped quite badly.
5. Ajay Devgn
A solid year with hits like Bol Bachchan and Son Of Sardaar with Tezz being the dampener.
Aamir Khan and Shahrukh Khan both had a release each with Talaash and Jab Tak Hai Jaan and though both releases were successful they under performed with 90 and 101 crore respectively.
@nagesh1
Are whichbrecord u r talkin about??????
Nagesh what are the lifetime oberseas collections of HAHK