AskIndicine: QnA at 9PM

Q. What was the reason for average opening of Jolly LLB 2? Advance booking started late? Dull release period? Unfavourable genre?

A. It was  probably a combination of various factors, including over-expectations. There was belief in the trade that Akshay Kumar would take it to the next level with a film like ‘Jolly LLB 2’. His last film ‘Rustom’ opened to 14 crore, inspite of a clash and sharing shows and screens with a bigger film like ‘Mohenjo Daro’. But the low opening could be because of several factors – including the budget (which was small and hence wasn’t worth a of a big-screen watch on the first day), lack of popular songs and February being a dull period did not help – although January too is a dull period and Shah Rukh Khan pulled Raees to nearly 20 crore inspite of a clash.

Q. Raees and Kaabil final verdict?

A. Raees collected more, but had higher costs. Domestic distributors of both films lost money, while producers of both films made profits. Semi Hit, both of them.

Q. Rate popularity of Aamir Khan among masses and classes (multiplex and single screens) In India and Overseas.

A. Aamir Khan isn’t about sheer craze, but more about the audience liking him and trusting his films to be good. At the end of the day, a Shah Rukh Khan might command more craze and generate initial mass-hysteria as compared to Aamir, but many more people are coming to watch Aamir Khan films in theatres. What matters is how many tickets an actor is capable of selling and in this, Aamir is way ahead everyone else.

Q. Which Aamir Khan do you love more. Choices: Chocolate boy of pre 2000 era or Mr. perfectionist of post 2000 era

A. The Aamir Khan everyone loves is someone who isn’t stuck to his image and keeps reinventing himself with each film. He isn’t living in the glory of his past, nor overdoing what clicked for him in his previous films. The pre-2000 era was probably weaker for him, both in terms of box office and quality of films. 2000 onwards he’s been pulling off even off-beat films like Dangal and Rang De Basanti.

Q. Will 100 cr clubs will become irrelevant after 1 decade?

A. It’s not big deal already, maybe for the younger actors but the established stars should be targeting 150 crore plus. Salman became the first actor to cross 200 crore mark in less than a week with Sultan. Aamir’s Dangal collected 198 crore in 7 days. So some actors are easily crossing 100 and consistently too.

Q. If you Indicine had the power to choose a release date for Crack what would it be? I’ve asked it a lot of times earlier, pls answer this time.

A. Independence Day weekend 2018. The script wasn’t in place when they announced the film last year. Neeraj Pandey and his team is working on it now, should release mid-2018.

Q. Can Anushka Sharma become the top actress this year if Rehnuma does very well and Padmavati fails for Deepika?

A. She is already the top actress in the industry. Deepika has been missing since long and her Hollywood debut did not generate any interest either.

Q. Akshay, Ajay and Hrithik…. who is the bigger star in overseas and India?

A. Akshay and Hrithik are pretty much neck-and-neck with Akshay ahead at the moment.  Both because he won the clash (Rustom) and does much more films. However, Jolly LLB 2 and also Housefull 3 last year had to open much better than they did.

Q. When will you update your list of Top 15 Bollywood actors? I’ve been waiting for it since the time of Befikre release.

A. We are currently fetching data for some of the over-inflated films. Once those adjustments are done, the Top 15 actors list will be out. Thank you for your interest.

Q. Do you think any upcoming movie of 2017 can break the earning record of Dangal?

A. If ‘Tubelight’ is as good as ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’, it has a chance. But most films are going to find it difficult to cross 385 crore. It’s a massive total, a lot of things like open weeks, holidays, content etc have to fall in place for any film to challenge Dangal.

Q. Any chance of 150 crore for Jolly LLB 2?

A. Highly unlikely. For the film to cross 150, the Monday collections have to be more than 10 crore. The reports are good, but not extraordinary – which is what is needed for a film to go from less than 13 crore on the opening day to 150 crore lifetime.

Q. Why in Bollywood Friday collections are less than Saturday and Sunday? In South opening day is very bigger than other day. In Hollywood also opening day and Saturday bigger than Sunday?

A. In the US, the workweek is just 5 days (Mon – Fri). Most schools, colleges and offices are closed on Saturday and Sunday. So Saturday as good as Sunday holiday here and fewer people watch on Sunday because they’ve to get back to work on Monday. That isn’t the case here in India. Most schools, colleges and government offices are open Mon – Sat with Saturday being a half day at places. As for the South, most movies there are massy. Even here, mass films drop after the first day. For example, Jai Ho collected 17 crore plus on Friday and 16 crore plus on Saturday. Even Rocky Handsome and a few other films dropped.

Q. Is it possible to cross 15 cr for Akshay Kumar’s next movies like Padman & Toilet Ek Prem Katha?

A. It looks difficult now. Both those movies are riskier than ‘Jolly LLB 2’ and aren’t big films either. So a little more than 10 crore opening, with content deciding where the film goes over the weekend – is what is expectation will be.

Q. Can you decode for me, a film, which say slightly under-performs back home in India but does stupendous business overseas? I mean, it’s the same story, right? Then how and why is there such a chasm b/w the economics?

A. The best example is My Name Is Khan. It was average in India, but went on to be a massive blockbuster overseas.  It was due to several factors – Karan Johar is very popular overseas, SRK himself is relatively a bigger outside the country, the SRK-Kajol pair and the title itself ensured that the film was huge in Gulf and other countries.

Q. How much can Padmavati earn if the word of mouth is like Bajirao Mastani. I know its super early but I just want to know your views. Please do answer as i Am asking it for the fifth time.

A. Any target is achievable for a film that promises a big-screen experience, but content finding acceptance is the key. Bajirao Mastani was a magnum opus and people probably felt it was a more value-for-money experience as compared to Dilwale. Padmavati could get two open weeks, Bhansali pulled off a ‘Ram Leela’ during the same period even though it had high costs. He was coming after a disaster like ‘Guzaarish’ back then, but now he’s a much bigger director than he was just before ‘Ram Leela’ release. ‘Padmavati’ as long as the trailer doesn’t disappoint, will definitely get a good initial.

Q. Is Salman really doing Korean film remake with Ali Abbas Zafar. Another one with him? Is the coming after Tiger Zinda Hai?

A. Yes, the film and the director is confirmed. Will release in 2019.

Q. Is it confirmed that Dutt biopic is clashing with Tiger Zinda Hai during Christmas weekend ? If yes, don’t you think it would better to release the film 2 weeks before ?

A. Tiger Zinda Hai will get a solo release, the clash will be averted.

5 more questions to be answered:

Q. How many crores of business is affected jolly LLB 2 by Singham 3 down south in 2 days?

A. The impact isn’t much. The film probably lost around 20 lakhs in the first two days.

Q. First, Raabta is scheduled to release on February.Now it’s been postponed to other date.What the reason behind this?

A. The film wasn’t completely ready and they wanted to avert the clash with Jolly LLB 2.

Q. Are Rangoon’s promos working? What’s the buzz like? Also approximately how much should it be making to be a success at least?

A. The promos aren’t working and it’s difficult to see how the film is going to be a success. A few articles will be out on the internet soon, claiming the film to be safe economics-wise, this itself is usually a sign that the makers aren’t confident of the film recovering costs and want the low-collections to create a positive perception. The problem is, the film is dark and this itself limits the audience. To add to it, Kangana was seen half nude in some promos, this will act as a turn-off for the family audience. The promos aren’t generating interest either. So a 7 crore opening looks like a best case scenario for the film, even that may not be enough because the film has high costs and doesn’t have satellite value either. A huge chunk of the investment has to be recovered from theatrical business, the trend over the weekend will be the key. If has to get to double digits on Saturday.

Q. Dear Indicine, almost all websites already declared Kaabil as first Super-Hit of 2017. I want your take on this.

A. It does not matter what the websites say when distributors of the film have lost their investment. We are in touch with the distributors, they haven’t recovered their MG.

Q. Do you think Akshay Kumar will lose his core fanbase I.e the masses due to repeatedly doing films which do not appeal to them?I know you’ve said earlier that the masses are a loyal fanbase,but how much can their patience be tested either?The last Akshay Kumar starter which really appealed to the single screen audiences was Gabbar Is back.Since that, every supposedly massy film of his has had English humour which could not be understood by most audiences in the interiors (Singh is bling,Housefull 3).Your views on this please.

A. It’s a tricky situation. The masses alone cannot give an actor even a 100 crore grosser and Akshay pay-check will drop if he does films like Gabbar Is Back and they do not work with the multiplex audience. For most films (barring Salman Khan starrers and other more universal films) 85% plus business is coming from multiplexes. So the multiplex audience cannot be ignored. What Akshay is trying to consciously do is to do films that appeal to even the Tier 2 multiplexes at smaller cities (not just the metros). It’s a large enough audience for films to do close to 150 crore, provided the content is there and that’s where the risk is.

Q. So now you will display trade figure or your own tracking figure for box office collection as per jolly llb 2 collection u display…so according to me u will put questions mark on every producer figure because there will be always difference some have less or some have more in producer and trade figure….so my question to u is u always said no one in trade pandits who can track movie box office collection as much as producer… So u are thinking for any middle way to ensure producer credibility and provide right figure to public ?

A. We will stick to producer numbers if the variation isn’t more than 5%. The producer deserves to get the benefit of doubt, if the collections are in the range because like we’ve already said – and Shah Rukh said recently too – only the producer knows the collections of his films to the last penny. Every single-screen is difficult to track anyway, impossible on a daily basis. But the trade gets to know when the collections of a film are inflated beyond a point. We get collections from circuits, from single theatres and also multiplex chains. The same size isn’t huge, but it’s still good enough to put an estimate by comparing collections to older films. So the industry almost always knows the range – may not be 100% accurate, but close to the actuals. The collections of Kaabil became a joke after a point. For example, Kaabil collections on 2nd Saturday was more than its opening day. Very few films manage such numbers and even fewer achieve that kind of trend on Day 11 (Kaabil released on Wednesday). Same with Raees too, they over inflated Monday onwards to ensure that the inflated numbers of Kaabil did not cross theirs.

That’s it for today’s QnA. Thank you for joining us.