AskIndicine: Has ended

The dull period for the industry has begun. We do not have too many big films before the likes of ‘Baahubali 2’ which releases April-end. The major film in February is ‘Rangoon’, followed by ‘Badrinath Ki Dulhania’ next month. 

Meanwhile, Jolly LLB 2 continues its good run and ‘The Ghazi Attack’ is growing on word-of-mouth. That apart, there isn’t much to discuss or talk about. We’ll keep the AskIndicine QnA short today. About 10-15 questions will be answered. A few interesting questions would be great, post them in the comments section below:

Q. When GST is going to be implemented? What will be its effect on Nett collection?

A. The revised GST implementation deadline is currently 1st July 2017, pushed ahead from the previous date of 1st April 2017. The date is yet to be finalised so the releases in the first half of the year will not get benefit of GST. If the 1st July date gets finalised, then Salman Khan’s Tubelight will be the first film to take advantage of the new tax system. If it releases on 23rd June, it’ll be in its 2nd week when GST comes into effect. A circuit like Punjab which is currently tax free, will be taxed, which will result in losses. While higher taxed states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh will benefit from lower taxes. We expect the all-India advantage to be around 5-10% i.e net collections will be higher and producers / distributors / exhibitors will make money money. If exhibitors (theatres) decide to reduce ticket prices, then it should result in increased ticket sales, which obviously would mean higher collections.

Q. Top actors of Bollywood recently?

A. Salman Khan, Aamir Khan, Shah Rukh Khan, Akshay Kumar, Hrithik Roshan, Ranbir Kapoor. In that order. Based on a combination of opening and lifetime collections.

Q. Is Robot 2.0 releasing in Diwali solo? Will it collect more than 100crores in dubbed Hindi only? What is the chance?

A. Yes, Robot 2.0 is getting a solo release for now. That could change if some film decides it can compete against 2.0 during Diwali. 100 crore should be achievable due to Akshay Kumar’s presence, but the target is likely to be much higher as the film is expected to fetch high prices.  Rajnikanth is easily the biggest South star all over the country and combined with Akshay as the lead villain and a festive period like Diwali – expectations will be no less than 150-200 crore.

Q. Do you agree that Akshay Kumar is an industry by itself?

A. Yes, he is. More often than not, he does more films than the Top 3 stars combined. Exhibitors love him, producers are beginning to love him too because his films from 2016 onwards are not just profitable but he’s become a lot more consistent too. He’s also very professional, punctual and completes his films on time. The only concern is the level of opening and the dependence on word-of-mouth for his films.  If that improves, then he has the potential to become a much bigger star than he is at the moment. Those 12-13 crore openings, have to get into the 15 crore plus zone on a working day, and those 120-130 crore lifetime totals, should get into 140 crore plus and closer to 150 crore. If he does this consistently – even with one odd film falling a little under 100 – he immediately begins to become a serious contender for the 3rd spot.

Q. Was Singh is Bling a success? As it was a semi-hit… if yes, then can it be said that Akshay has given 5 hits in a row?

A. No, it wasn’t a clean-hit. In fact, even Housefull 3 wasn’t a very profitable film and it fell below-expectations theatrically too. Jolly LLB 2 is a bigger success than Housefull 3.

Q. Why indicine doing negative journalism against Akshay Kumar and Jolly LLB 2?

A. We try to balance it out. No over-praises unless films well and truly exceed expectations – like opening weekend of Sultan or opening and lifetime of Dangal. No over-criticism either unless films are outright rejected. If you want to read only praises, there are other sites to visit and other journalists to follow.

Q. Why did a commercial entertainer like Running Shaadi.com is disaster on the 1st day itself ? Is the concept not liked by trailer? Or lack of presence of a star ? Or people preferred Jolly LLB 2 ?

A. It’s a combination of all those factors. Jolly LLB 2 was the established film and had star-value too. People are more willing to spend on good / average film of a star, compared to average film without any known face. The only thing that can make a difference is incredible reviews and word-of-mouth (Like PINK). If that isn’t there, it’s always going to be difficult for films that lack star-value. Even recovering the marketing costs from theatrical business can be a struggle.

Q. Is this true that Akshay is Canadian now and if it is then why the news didn’t come in limelight ? What’s your view ?

A. How does it really matter? He is such a huge part of our industry and country. Exhibitors are surviving because of his films. His films give jobs to thousands of people every year. He’s one of the highest tax payers in the country. He’s usually the first to donate money to people in need, even though he doesn’t overtly use his PR machinery to publicise it. He does more for India, than 99% of Indian citizens. Watch and enjoy his films, his personal decisions are his and not anyone elses.

Q. Does the growth of Jolly LLB 2 that it showed after the weak start due to positive WOM ensure that Padman and Toilet can show similar trend too? Since those seems to be non-commercial flicks, do you they might struggle at box office even with good WOM and will not have any chance to get to 100 crs?

A. This concern has already been addressed in one of the earlier questions today. Unless the promos turn out to be extraordinary, Toilet: Ek Prem Katha should open lower than Jolly LLB 2. It’s also the Ramzan period and it releases just 21 days / three weeks before ‘Tubelight’, so people will be saving up money to watch the bigger film. A opening of 10-11 crore will mean, the film will be hugely dependent on word-of-mouth to carry it through. Having said all that, box office is always going to be unpredictable. It can surprise or disappoint. Jolly LLB 2 was expected to open in the 15 crore plus range by almost everyone in the trade, the hype within the industry was so big that both the advance booking and opening came as big disappointments. Level of opening is always going to be crucial – 10-11 crore opening means word-of-mouth is the key, 15-16 crore opening ensures success in the first weekend itself because the film can get to 80-85 crore plus range even with average word-0f-mouth. 35 weekend means it has to be a good film to even get to 70.

Q. What kind of movies Hrithik needs to do the to come back to top-3 again?

A. He should start with doing more films, two films in 18 months is a bare minimum. For all the negativity, Kaabil will finish with lifetime total of a little more than 100 crore (all versions). It isn’t a bad total, in fact it’ll just fall about 15 crore lower than Jolly LLB 2 which was a solo release. It’s just that some of the distributors of the film will lose money and it performed poorly overseas because of SRK. And the inflation by Rakesh Roshan has given the film more negativity than it deserved. No lessons learnt from Krrish 3, which was a major blockbuster but has become a joke because of over-inflation of collections. The Roshans have only themselves to blame here. Even though SRK announced his film after Kaabil was announced, they should’ve sorted it out and opted for a solo release. To get into the Top 3 is a long way away now, his next two films have to cross 150 crore. He’d be hoping for solo releases now, because his last three films have clashed – one sailed through, one was rejected. The last one suffered only because of clash. Actually both did, but since the opening was in favour of SRK, he has benefitted from perception.

Q. Will it ever be possible to reach the mega stardom of Salman Khan or Amitabh Bachchan or Rajesh Khanna?

A. Why not? Anything is possible in the industry, someone could rise out of nowhere and that talent is long overdue now. Someone with that charisma, over night sensation.. it hasn’t happened since Hrithik in 2000. There may not be someone like a Salman or SRK or Amitabh.. but it could be someone else, someone unique yet fits into that quintessential Bollywood superstar mould. What will be difficult though will be to replicate the success of someone like an Aamir Khan. To work around the limitations and build the trust amongst his audience the way he has, is going to be very very difficult.

Q. Your take on comment of Vidhu Vinod Chopra about Aamir khan and Dangal success. He said even Hrithik can pull the movie to that success, what you think about this?

A. It’s time for everyone, including us, to stop under-rating the phenomenon that is Aamir Khan. Everyone, including us, are guilty of getting too carried away by what happens in the internet world. The crowds outside houses of superstars on their birthdays or the sheer craze he generates is the love he / she has earned. But what truly matters is how many tickets an actor can sell at the ticket window or how much his films are loved. And at this point in time, the Top 2 are in  different league. Taking what looked like an off-beat film like Dangal to 30 crore on the opening day is no small achievement. It didn’t have a popular leading lady, nor did it have even a known director. The film was entirely on Aamir’s shoulders and he has carried it to nearly 390 crore.  A statement like Hrithik could’ve taken Dangal to the same level is silly – it would probably have held more weightage if it came from Rajkumar Hirani, but not from someone like Vidhu Vinod Chopra who does not really have commercial sense. Hrithik would’ve still taken a film like Dangal to be a very big total, but there are many other factors involved to make Dangal into what it is and it wouldn’t be what it is without Aamir.

Aamir’s name also carries trust and that’s the biggest factor which sells him those additional tickets. His smart marketing strategies cannot be ignored too. While most actors opt for sensation and television appearances – most of which makes zilch difference at the box office – Aamir did it so smartly that most did not even realise it was his marketing brain at play, all the way through. He ensured his transformation got so much coverage, that people were more than willing to pay, just to see what made him put so much effort into Dangal. An entire article can be written on this, we’ll keep it short and say Aamir is a genius, the likes of which the industry has never seen. Since he cannot be likened to anyone else in the past, his phenomenon is under-rated.

Some quick answers now..

Q. Who is more popular Deepika or Katrina?

A. Deepika.

Q. Salman Khan didn’t given single ATHG in this decade, so won’t it affect on his stardom.

A. Doesn’t matter, he’s giving those 300 crore grossers. Two in a row is a very big deal.

Q. Raees is neither Hit nor Flop. Will you say its a kind of success for SRK considering 131 cr with big clash and non festive period?

A. Yes. It’s being perceived as a success for him. He easily won the opening battle and topped January too. It’s just that, since he was the top star in the industry for a very long period of time until 2008-09 and is still very much capable of giving those big grossers – the expectations from him are very high. 130 crore is very big for most actors, but not for SRK. This also reflects in the price that distributors pay. Dilwale was sold to earn 250 crore, it did 150. Raees was sold to earn 150 crore or more, it did 130.

Q. Hi, I’m Tharindu here. My first question – what is the maximum potential of indian box office on day one ? Second , why south films gets a bigger opening numbers compared to multiplex dominated Hindi film market

A. Hindi films pay higher taxes compared to South films that are either tax free or pay low-taxes in their home states. Secondly, max potential of a film on Day 1 varies depending on size of release and ticket prices.

Q. Is Akshay Kumar losing out on the single screens audience by his movies choices? Toilet- Ek Prem Katha and Padman look like thoroughly multiplex movies. So does Gold. For an actor who is so versatile and who does so many films, wouldn’t it be wiser for him to do something in the lines of Rowdy Rathore or Gabbar or Holiday once in a while? It is a pity because he is very good in these kind of deals. I also don’t feel that Toilet and Padman are going to be huge grossers. They look risky. And he needs a huge grosser to challenge the Khans. Your thoughts, please.

A. It’s a debatable topic. We discussed this in the last QnA. Most of the money is coming from multiplex business, so it’s a smart decision as long as he can maintain the quality of his films. His way of functioning probably doesn’t allow him to made those big-budget universal films, which require more than those 60 days (including promotion) that he’s willing to give.

Q. Hi, I’m from Roanoke, Virginia USA. Been following this website for a while now. You guys are excellent. I’ve few question for you please answer them. What you know about Kapil Sharma’s new movie “Firangi”‘s budget, Genre and lead actress? What’s Shahid Kapoor status in industry as of now? If Tubelight turn to be as good as BB, how much will it collect? And lastly, why did Kattapa kill Bahubali? Thank you in advance for answer. Great work Team Indicine.

A. Thank you for visiting. One, Firangi is a comedy drama and the leading lady is Ishita Dutta. Budget is unknown for now, only the first schedule has been wrapped up. Shahid’s status is unknown too, because his audience will be limited to less than 10% of the total film-going audience as long as he does the kind of movies that he’s doing. Padmavati is his big film, but it depends on how much he can take out of it, because it also has Ranveer Singh. His choices after Padmavati will make a difference too, because no one can climb the Bollywood ladder with just one multi-starrer success i.e assuming it does go on to be a big success. Lastly, we wouldn’t want to spoil it for you since Baahubali The Conclusion is just 50 days away, not that we know.

Q. Indicine please answer to my question, I read your articles more than 10 times a day please, If the wom is like Bajrangi for tubelight can salman make it to 400 crore domestic and if it gets wom like PRDP what can be the lifetime number ?

A. Even if you happen to read our articles 20 times a day, such things cannot be predicted. We’ve already said it, disastrous results or crazy over-performance cannot be predicted. Atleast from those in the trade who are known for making realistic / sane predictions. Let the film release, if it gets the kind of word-of-mouth that Bajrangi had, then absolutely anything is possible. We’ve got to remember that Bajrangi was affected by films like Baahubali and Drishyam. More breathing space, along with GST benefit will make it a lot easier for Tubelight. But the most important thing is to first find acceptance from the audience.

Q. How much you expect from Badrinath ki dulhania in it’s first week as exam period is expected to effect the movies till the end of second week of March and it’s main target audience is also youth.

A. First week is difficult to predict, because that would depend on word-of-mouth. We are currently expecting 10-11 crore opening and a 35 crore weekend.

Q. John Abraham didn’t had much success as an actor. His solo releases doesn’t even recover the costs. How he is able to survive in bollywood for so many years? Just because of looks?

A. Smart choices. He does those safe multi starrers, which gives him the opportunity to do solo disasters.

Q. You gave no LBO for Padman?

A. It’s a tricky concept. How could the audience react to it? How will it be treated? We try to gather as much information about films before giving our LBO estimation / expectation. We haven’t been able to gather too info on Padman, so the prediction will be too vague.

Q. There is no competition for Rangoon before Badrinath ki dulhania. so if the film comes out to be a masterpiece and WOM becomes very good what number of collection would film collect?Is there any chance of 100 crores ?

A. Open weeks carry little or no value if films do not find acceptance. We’d like to wait and see if Rangoon can surprise us. Right now, we do not have any expectations from the film, as far as business is concerned. We do not want to sound negative here, but try asking anyone in the trade, they’ll tell you the same too.

Q. Don’t have question but just want to congratulate your team for giving real collection about big films.. Yes some will criticise you but don’t worry some people like me will always appreciate you hard work.. Keep doing it and all the best..

A. It’s been a difficult two weeks for us and to be very honest, for no fault of ours. We thought lessons were learnt from Krrish 3, but that wasn’t the case. The positive side of this is, we’ve accumulated a lot of data of older films. We want to make our database as accurate and real as we possibly can over the next few months. Not just the collections, but also the verdicts. There are some verdict blunders and some films which were made to look successful, even though they were failures. It’ll all be corrected and made to reflect the reality. Do stay tuned and thanks for the support.

And with that, we end today’s QnA. Longer than we expected, but the questions just keep coming even though we do this every week. Thank you.