AskIndicine: Live Now

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Q. Will Kaabil and Raees clash take place? Or will one shift?

A. We have no new update on the clash for now. Officially, both films are still scheduled to release on the same day, but there is still plenty of time for the clash to be averted. We believe only one film will release on 26th January.

Q. Can Freaky Ali affect Baar Baar Dekho collection?

A. It will, but the impact will be less than 5-10%. It could pose a bigger threat if the word-of-mouth is good. It’s a extended weekend just like Mohenjo Daro and Rustom, with Monday as a partial holiday for Eid. The holiday advantage won’t be as big as Independence Day, but film business stands to benefit by 20-25%.

Q. Now that Akshay Kumar is on a roll and back to 2007 stardom days, with Crack, Jolly LLB 2, Toilet in the pipeline in the future, what are the expectations from his biggest film Robot 2?

A. Expectations remain the same. It’ll be the biggest film of 2017. The star cast and director combo of that film is on a different level.

Q. Is Shah Rukh Khan confirmed for Dhoom 4?

A. No, but reliable sources say, Shah Rukh is the top choice right now.

Q. If Dangal folds at around 220 – 230cr, will it make Salman Khan the undisputed No.1 and how much would Dangal need to collect for Aamir to make a undisputed No. 1?

A. Salman is already the undisputed No 1 superstar in the industry. For Aamir, Dangal has to open and sustain at a level higher than Sultan in the first weekend. To be the undisputed No 1, he has to do more films.

Q. Is it true that Hrithik sign satellite right deal of his next 6 movie in 550 crore? If this is true, does it include Mohenjo Daro or not? And after MD debacle is their any changes in that deal?

A. The deal begins with Kaabil next year. Mohenjo Daro satellite price will be revised / renegotaited after the box office failure of the film.

Q. Do you think that Akshay Kumar is going the Aamir Khan way? Let me explain: Aamir did “patriotic” movies in the mid 2000 (Lagaan, Mangal Pandey and Rang De Basanti) and Akshay is doing the same (Baby, Gabbar Is Back, Airlift and Rustom) and the latest ones were big successes. He has Robot 2.0 now and it will surely open to earth shattering response. So do you think big directors and producers could approach him in the next few years and by 2018/2019 he will start blocking big release dates?

A. It makes no sense to compare two actors, more so when it comes to two of the most established stars in the country. Both Aamir and Akshay have different styles of working. Akshay will finish 8 films by the time Aamir completes one. The pace at which Akshay works, we don’t think he will give extra time to films. Also, it’s not like he isn’t working with big directors already – A.R. Murugadoss, Shankar and even Neeraj Pandey (although his films haven’t been hugely successful) are some of the biggest directors in the country.

Q. Every other site has been posting that Rustom is already a Super Hit and needs to collect 130+ crore to become a Blockbuster. Your views?

A. We can’t talk about any other website. We do our own analysis and we have already put up our business economics. How can a film that was sold for 39-40 (domestic theatrical rights) be declared a blockbuster when it does 60-65 crore share? It’s a Super Hit. Has to do 80 crore India share (160 crore plus net collections) to be declared a blockbuster.

Q. Who is the highest paid actor in India ? Also rank on the basis of actor male/ female charged per movie.

A. In terms of market value, it’ll be Salman Khan and Deepika Padukone. Followed by Aamir Khan – Anushka Sharma at 2nd spot. Shah Rukh Khan comes third. Highest paid / earning actors (not including income from endorsements etc) will always be very similar to box office standing of stars. Some actors do get more than their market value.

Q. What would have been the verdict for Mohenjo-Daro and Rustom if their collections would have been vice versa?

A. Well, Mohenjo Daro had to collect 120-130 crore from India to attain hit status. Even Rustom would be a flop if it collected what Mohenjo Daro has.

Q. Can Rustom become Akshay Kumar’s highest grosser?

A. Highly unlikely now. Both the first weekdays and second weekend collections are lower than Rowdy Rathore.

Q. What do you think how much would “Rustom”collect in the coming days and what would probably be its lifetime collection according to the current trend in which it is flowing. What would be the standing of Hrithik in your Top 15 Actors list,will Mohenjo daro affect his position at no.4?Will Akshay overtake hrithik in the coming year if his movies perform at a level par compared to this year?

A. We will be updating the Top 15 Actors in the next couple of days. Hrithik will retain his position, because Guzaarish is the film that’s going out of his last 5 films. If Akshay has to make it to the Top 3-4, he needs one big grosser. Otherwise, he has no chance even if he does 5 100 crore films. SRK averages 157 crore per film, Hrithik averages 135 crore per film. Aamir and Salman are 200 crore plus per film. All of which is higher than Akshay’s highest grosser Rowdy Rathore. So he’ll have to either start giving bigger grossers, or deliver one big grosser. Robot 2.0 could be that film. Read Top 15 Actors

Q. Hrithik has confirmed only one upcoming film which is Kaabil. What types of movies he needs to do to match his potential which is definetely to be on top? Because we all know he is just one or two movie away to be on Top Again!

A. Hrithik needs to rethink and re-strategise if he has any ambitions of sustaining his standing in the industry for the few years. Otherwise things could go downhill pretty quickly, because there is quite a lot of competition from the younger bunch of stars too. The pace at which he works, is way too slow – which is fine as long as he can come up with something extraordinary. But in the last 4 years, he has done two films – one was Bang Bang and the other is Mohenjo Daro. Content-wise both films disappointed big time. Hrithik always said Mohenjo Daro was a big film, but it didn’t look like it from the promos. Even Rohit Shetty’s advertisement Ranveer Ching had more ‘scale’ to it.

Also, being the lead hero of the film, you can’t let your producers and other involved in the film to take every decision for you. When the movie is selling on your name, when people are coming to watch you on the big screen.. it is your responsibility to ensure your product is upto expectations. It’s also very important to get involved in the decision making process. Like release dates for example.

Q. Has failure of Mohenjo Daro affected Hrithik’s standing in the industry?

A. It has not, but it has definitely created negative perception. Like SRK, Hrithik also needs a good film to make a strong comeback.

Q. Indicine since last many times I have asked this question but did not get reply.I hope today I will get answer to my question. Is Salman Khan movies except Bajrangi Bhaijan is able to cross 250 crore without festive season?

A. Sorry, but the day we understand your question, it’ll definitely be answered. Salman created Eid weekend. Full stop.

Q. Are you amazed by the kind of trend Rustom has shown despite mixed response?

A. The response isn’t exactly mixed, quite a lot of people have liked the film – otherwise movies cannot sustain after the initial holiday period. It has performed and sustained very well at multiplexes and also taken full advantage of the holiday weekend. Exhibitors are happy, but if Mohenjo Daro released solo last week, the footfalls would’ve been way too. With the benefit of hindsight, Rustom deserved to release during the Independence Day weekend.

Q. My question is Arijit is singing a song for Salman in Tubelight is it confirmed or just a rumour.. Kriti which was removed from YouTube is now back after winning the court case..

A. Yes, Arijit Singh is singing a song for Salman Khan’s Tubelight. Arijit himself has confirmed the same. Looks like the short film ‘Kriti’ was put back after a few days, we tracked it for a couple of days, but it wasn’t online.

Q. Akshay has just delivered his 6th non-holiday 100 cr grosser with Rustom. Don’t you think this is a Huge Record as all other Stars especially the Khans have no Non-Holiday 100 crore grossers & they all need festivals like Eid, Diwali and Xmas to do 100 crore, 200 crore? Your Views?

A. We have said it before, we say it again. Akshay is like a mini industry. His style of work is almost robotic. Out of 12 months a year, 2 months he sets aside for vacation, doesn’t work on Saturday or Sunday. So that’s 160 off-days a year. In the remaining 200 days – he approves 3-4 scripts, shoots for those films and promotes them. And he maintains this pace every year. Earlier, the quality of his films was possibly suffering because of this, but this year has been terrific. If he maintains this pace and quality, it could be the beginning of a period that’s bigger than the mid-2000s for him.

Q. There are still rumours that Shah Rukh Khan is eyeing the Independence Day Weekend for Imtiaz Ali film? If these rumours are somewhat true, will it be a wise decision for Shahrukh to afford another clash?

A. After analysing the last two major clashes, it’s clear that releasing a big film on the same day as another big film, can be an advantage - provided you have made a good film. If your competition is weak, then it’s an even bigger advantage. But the difficult part is – you can’t be too sure of both, until it’s too late to avert the clash.

So it’s a tricky decision. Even announcing release date of your film well in advance is risky these days, because if someone else comes on the same day, you’re again on shaky ground. With Bajirao Mastani and Rustom both emerging victorious, get ready for many more clashes in the next few years.

Q. There was a twitter trend going on yesterday about Rustom having highest occupancy record in Week 1 and some trade people like Joginder Tuteja and Girish Johar also saying the same thing. Is it really bigger than 3 Idiots, Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Sultan, Gadar, HAHK etc? Please clear this thing?

A. That statement or argument just does not make sense and we do not even know how to clarify it with correct examples. First of all, it’s wrong to compare films on occupancy basis alone. Because let’s say there is a multiplex with capacity of 1000 for Rustom and Sultan is running with a capacity of 2000. Now, if Rustom fills 900 and Sultan fills 1700 – which is higher? The percentage might be lower, but the tickets sold / footfalls are much higher for Sultan. It’s not like Rustom was running at 100% capacity that people did not get a chance to watch the film.

At the end of Week 1, more than 2 crore people watched Sultan. Rustom was watched by less than half of those. It’s an unfair comparison too, because the genre does not allow Rustom to perform at Sultan level.

It has to be understood, that a big chunk of Sultan collections came from single-screen centres that were sold out for the entire 5 day weekend. 100% occupancy at many centres. The collections will be lower because tickets are cheaper, but occupancy of Sultan was light years ahead of Rustom. No comparison whatsoever. You are comparing a film that collected 208 crore in 7 days to a film that collected 90 crore. And it’s much more difficult to achieve the high level of occupancy of Sultan on 20-30 shows a day at multiplexes and for a film that released on 4300 plus screens.

Girish Johar knows the trade well, he knows the reality too. But it’s his film after all. It’s natural for him to call it the best.

We can write an entire 3000 word article on this, but these days its all about taking sides. No one wants to accept the reality. We do not even want to get into Gadar and other films, because then it starts becoming too silly.

Q. Don’t you think if Rustom was released on 3500+ screens then it will collects 150 crore plus definitely?

A. This is another question that keeps coming up. Do you think the producers are fools not to release the film on 3500 screens if they could make money? Why did Airlift release on 2000 screens and Housefull 3 on 3600? That’s because releasing Airlift at smaller centres, will mean the cost of releasing the film is much higher than the chances of recovering even the release cost. If there is no audience in a village in UP for a film like Airlift, it doesn’t make sense to give it a release there. Higher screen count does NOT necessarily mean higher collections. Also, when the screen count is higher, you need to have favourable genre and star power to pull audience at smaller centres in India.

Q. Why do people compare a film that was released 5 years ago to the film released now there is a lot difference in the inflation rate, like like Hum Aapke Hain Kaun made 70 crores crores in 1994 cant be compared to a film which made Hundred crore today. Can you do an article on this topic or just tell what is the real value of Hum Aapke Hain Kaun today today?

A. 70 crore in 1994 could be worth 700 – 750 crore today. But that doesn’t mean the same Hum Aapke Hain Kaun would collect that much if it released today. Such films may not even work universally. Also there are other factors like piracy, multiple entertainment options etc. HAHK should be compared to films of that era only.

Q. Is Mubaraka starring Arjun Kapoor and Anil Kapoor confirmed?

A. Yes, the film is confirmed. It will be directed by Anees Bazmee, goes on floors in November this year. Apart from Arjun and Anil, the film will have two leading ladies. The announcement will be made in the next couple of weeks. The makers have been waiting to get the chaos around ‘Aankhen 2’ (also directed by Bazmee) out of the way, before they make the final announcement.

Q. What could be best release date for 2.0 next year according to you?

A. It’s scheduled to release during Diwali next year. But release dates of Tamil films can change any time.

Q. Rustom verdict at 125 cr finish ? Hit or superhit ?

A. Super Hit.

Q. Do you think the intolerance comment has affected SRK’s films?

A. It didn’t impact SRK’s last release FAN, so there is no question of his remarks affecting business of any of his films. With Dilwale too it was a non-issue, but Aamir’s more serious comments, too close to release, added to the negativity for SRK. People have short memory, so as long as there is no further controversy just before release that goes to the extent of people boycotting the film, it’s not big deal.

Q. Your views on Padmavati? Is it happening or shelved?

A. It’s happening. It looks like they want to build up the hype through the media before the final announcement. Ignore the rumours, wait for the announcement. It should be Shahid – Ranveer – Deepika.

Q. Is Mubaraka postponed / shelved? Which one going to start first Mubaaraka or Aankhen 2?

A. Not shelved. Goes on floors in November.

Q. You said Ranveer Singh is ahead of Varun. How it can possible Varun has 7 back to back successes and his fan-following among youth is more than Ranveer. Varun’s every movie has opened well, but Ranveer has only one big success, which is due to actress and director.

A. As per our ranking system, Ranveer is ranked higher because he delivered a major grosser and also a few other 70 (Dil Dhadakne Do) – 110 (Ram Leela) grossers . Ranveer is also working with some of the biggest directors in the industry like Aditya Chopra, Sanjay Leela Bhansali and Rohit Shetty.. However, Varun has been very consistent and successful too with incredible success ratio. He just needs to work in bigger films and bigger directors. To be very honest, all the young stars are almost equal at this point in time. All are dependent on content and all are establishing their fanbase. So next 2-3 years will decide who takes the lead. If Befikre doesn’t work, there will be talk that Ranveer needs Bhansali. And Bhansali himself isn’t a very consistent director – he gives one or two films that just about break even or are slightly profitable, and then puts all the money on a big film only to deliver a disaster. His career has been a roller coaster, very few of his films have been hugely profitable.

Q. Rumour is that Aankhen 2 have one more lead actor than the announced actors… and its said to be a big young star.! Is it true?

A. We are not sure about ‘Aankhen 2’ and we don’t think the film will happen.  They announced Ileana D’Cruz as part of the star cast, but later she herself said she is not doing the film. Something doesn’t seem right about ‘Aankhen 2’. The grand announcement and hype is to get investors, but unless there is a big lead hero, the film won’t work. Akshay is not interested. With all due respect to him, Amitabh Bachchan, currently, is not a bankable star to carry a big film on his own.

Q. It is a hypothetical question, yet would request you to answer it based on your experience, how much would have mohenjo daro and rustom had done, if the actors were swapped in both the movies? Hrithik in Rustom and Mohenjo daro would have starred Akshay Kumar? What would be a possible number on day 1 and lifetime collections, rest everything remaining the same?

A. With such dull promos and the negativity it got right from the day the trailer released, Mohenjo Daro would not have worked irrespective of the star. Appealing promos can help take star power to the next level, but no star can save a film with such dull and boring looking trailers. Do go back and read some of the articles and even QnA’s that we had published before release of the two films, we had predicted doom for Mohenjo Daro right after the trailer was launched and then it just went downhill since then. Absolutely nothing worked. When people were simply not interested in watching the film, they should have just averted the clash and given it a solo release. If there was no alternative, MJD would have probably collected about 10-20% more overall. Doesn’t change the fate of the film though.

Q. My question is when you knew the trend of Rustom very well, why you predicted such a low LBO?

A. It’s difficult to accurately predict lifetime of films that over perform / films that go way beyond expectations. But such mistakes will probably help us make more accurate predictions in the future, because when we introspect on what went wrong with the prediction – we realise that we underestimated the weekend that it released in. It basically had two national holidays and one big partial holiday. That’s about 3 crore increase in business on Raksha Bandhan and 9-10 crore on Independence Day. Also, we thought Mohenjo Daro will compete better, but it didn’t.  The final difference will be around 25% between our prediction and the actual collection.

Q. Are Toilet:Ek Prem Katha and Crack two different films or the name of movie Toilet has been changed to Crack now?

A. Two different films. There are internal reports that Toilet Ek Prem Katha will go on floors this year end.

Q. Asking this question again, Is merchandise business is a thing in Bollywood or it’s just a hollywood thing. Movies like Star Wars and Toy Story generate around 30 and 10 billion respectively revenue from merchandise business did any Bollywood movie earned some extraordinary money from Merchandising?

A. A few producers have tried selling merchandise of Hindi films too. The only success was Krrish. We do not know how much money was made. It’s something that should be researched.

Q. You gave Rustom negative reviews even worse than Mohenjo Daro. Don’t you think you should review movies according to audience prespective rather than your own.

A. How exactly do we give reviews from audience perspective, when audience opinion itself will be mixed and divided for every film? We can only do a poll. We have different reviewers, they have their individual opinions, they can only express it in the reviews. We do not ask a reviewers to give x numbers of stars to a film, it’s completely upto him / her.

Q. Indicine, your LBO was 102 cr. for Rustom but it’ll collect even more than that today…So can we say the WOM is extremely positive or only postive?And do you think it has any chance to do 150 cr. nett?

A. No chance of 150 crore, as the trend is poorer than Rowdy Rathore. We do not want to easily give ‘extremely positive’ word-of-mouth rating to any film unless the trend is extraordinary and the film is liked by 8-9 out of 10 people. So Rustom will be ‘positive’ word-of-mouth. Last year, only three films got extremely positive word-of-mouth ranking – Tanu Weds Manu Returns, Bajirangi Bhaijaan and Bajirao Mastani. The weekdays and 2nd / 3rd week collections need to be excellent.

That’s the end of QnA for today. More than 35 questions were answered and it went on for more than 4 hours. More than 26,000 people joined us today and most of them stayed today. Thank you and  do join us next week.