2016 and IndicineFBO Predictions

IndicineFBO has completed two successful years. In the inaugural year (2015), we made 46 predictions out of which 36 were accurate while 10 were inaccurate. Films like ‘Gabbar Is Back’ were very accurately predicted, but there were prediction blunders with films like ‘Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon’ and ‘Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2’ more than doubling our prediction. 

2016 was a much better year, as our worst predictions were ‘Great Grand Masti’ (inaccurate by 56%) and ‘Mirzya’ (-45%) – both films that were almost impossible to predict. A hugely popular franchise film like ‘Great Grand Masti’ collected just 2.5 crore on its opening day, it was affected by piracy and the real impact of it was difficult to analyse because ‘Udta Punjab’ did well inspite of piracy. Mirzya didn’t even get a face-saving opening at the box office, it was a disaster from the morning shows itself.

Our favourite predictions of the year, also happened to be the film that managed to collect the most on the first day. Sultan was very difficult to predict, because the holiday for Eid was postponed at the very last moment. A 40 crore plus opening was on the cards, but Eid falling on the next day meant the muslim section of the audience did not come to watch the film on Day 1. We expected the film to do 38.5 crore, it did 36.5 crore. A difference of 5%.

‘Dangal’ was equally difficult to predict. The film was neither promoted like an ‘event’ film, nor did it carry the craze that Sultan or Dhoom 3 generated prior to release. The advance booking too started slow, but gained momentum a day before release after positive reviews started pouring out. We expected to the opening to be around the 26-27 crore range, but added around 5% expecting the film to grow evening onwards. The prediction turned out to be very accurate, more so because not many in the trade were expecting it do more than 25 crore on Day 1.

‘Mohenjo Daro’ turned out to be an inaccurate prediction, but we managed to accurately predict the combined collections of ‘Rustom’ and ‘Mohenjo Daro’. We expected the two films combined to collect 23.3 crore, the actual collections were 22.98 crore.

We also managed to predict the winner of both the clashes this year. ‘MJD’ vs ‘Rustom’ was easier, because the promos of the Hrithik film had completely failed to generate any excitement. ‘Shivaay’ vs ‘ADHM’ was a lot more tougher, because Ajay had gone all out to promote the film, it was more universal and it was the bigger budget film too.

The last 7 films of the year were all accurately predicted, with the difference of all films falling under 10%.

MoviePredictionOfficial
Wazir4.45.61+ 27%, In accurate
Airlift10.912.35+ 13%, Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 39.38.15- 12%, Accurate
Mastizaade6.15.59- 8%, Accurate
Saala Khadoos2.22.190%, Accurate
Ghayal Once Again6.47.2+ 12%, Accurate
Sanam Re5.55.04- 8%, Accurate
Fitoor5.23.61- 30%, Inaccurate
Neerja4.34.7+ 8%, Accurate
Jai Gangajaal5.25.5+ 6%, Accurate
Kapoor & Sons5.86.85+ 18%, Inaccurate
Rocky Handsome6.35.39- 14%, Accurate
Ki and Ka6.37.27+ 16%, Inaccurate
Fan21.919.2- 12%, Accurate
Baaghi9.411.94+ 27%, Inaccurate
Azhar7.56.3- 16%, Inaccurate
Sarbjit4.23.69- 12%, Accurate
Housefull 317.415.21- 12%, Accurate
Udta Punjab8.910.05- 13%, Accurate
Sultan38.536.54- 5%, Accurate
Great Grand Masti5.82.5- 56%, Inaccurate
Dishoom9.811.02+12%, Accurate
Mohenjo Daro10.78.87- 17%, Inaccurate
Rustom12.614.11+12%, Accurate
Happy Bhaag Jayegi2.12.32+10%, Accurate
A Flying Jatt8.57.11- 16%, Inaccurate
Baar Baar Dekho9.16.81- 25%, Inaccurate
Freaky Ali2.42.5+4%, Accurate
Pink4.54.32-4%, Accurate
Raaz Reboot5.26.31+ 21%, Inaccurate
MS Dhoni20.121.6+7%, Accurate
Mirzya4.02.2- 45%, Inaccurate
Shivaay10.710.24-4%, Accurate
ADHM12.413.3+7%, Accurate
Force 25.86.05+4%, Accurate
Dear Zindagi9.78.75-10%, Accurate
Kahaani 24.54.25-5%, Accurate
Befikre10.510.36-1%, Accurate
Dangal28.629.78+4%, Accurate
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33 Comments

  • Your website is doing great analysis. I always appreciate your effort in putting special articles for US.
    Thanks Indicine Team.

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 19 Thumb down 3
  • All the best for your future predictions.
    It’s been 3 years since I have been visiting this site and let me tell you I have visited every single site before but none come close to Indicine.It’s difficult to satisfy every single fan base.I still remember how severely some users bashed you for some bold predictions but your prediction did turn out to be true.
    Just one small request from every fan of Indicine.Please come up with an Android/Windows application as soon as possible.
    May you have an even better 2017

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 20 Thumb down 3
  • In your LBO prediction of 2017 you said that those predictions are averages of what trade people predicted. I want to ask you Indicine what is your prediction for Tubelight and TZH?

    Thumb up 6 Thumb down 4
  • A J’s shivaay was the only dissappoiment for me….SULTAN AND DANGAL ROCKD…xceedd my xpectations

    Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2
  • Without any shadow of doubt , one of the best site of Bollywood.
    Loads of Love From Nepal

    Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1
  • U guys r doing grt job
    U guys HV done Vry much accurate prediction
    Some times as a fan ap logo ki prediction galat lagta hai
    But we all know u guys r genuine n honest towards every fan base
    Congrats @indicine

    Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1
  • Lots of love and wishes from Pakistan … cant sleep without checking your last article .. sometime your slow . Olny 2 articles in one day . But i know you only post the truth not rumours .. now movie will also release here .. fewwww thank god .. n a happy new year

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1
  • Congratulations guys and all the best for your future predictions.

    Btw pls post about Jolly LLB 2 trade response and expectations asap.

    Highly rated comment Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1
  • On a lighter note these are the day 1 collections of some south films this year as per official sources.

    Sardaar Gabbar Singh- 20.91 cr
    Janatha Garage- 20.56 cr
    Brahmotsavam- 13 cr
    Nannaku Prematho- 12 cr
    Sarrainodu- 10 cr
    Dhruva- 10 cr

    And believe it or not all these collections are from just 1 state! This is nothing guys, the south indian sources really add up some 25/30/40 cr+ day 1 collections on the name of worldwide opening/gross shares, etc etc. Trust me guys Google about it and you’ll surely be amazed.

    I wanna ask how do people tolerate such open manipulation?

    Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0
  • Akkians don’t expect from indicine they never will post trade response of jolly llb 2 trailer . Its appreciated by audience & critics 97 % likes the trailer . The best site ever for prediction of box office . About 20 time’s daily open indicine website .

    Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

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